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The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East



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Brookings Inst Pr
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Even the most seasoned Middle East observers were taken aback by the events of early 2011. Protests born of oppression and socioeconomic frustration erupted throughout the streets; public unrest provoked violent police backlash; long-established dictatorships fell. How did this all happen? What might the future look like, and what are the likely ramifications for the United States and the rest of the world? In The Arab Awakening, experts from the Brookings Institution tackle such questions to make sense of this tumultuous region that remains at the heart of U.S. national interests. The first portion of The Arab Awakeningoffers broad lessons by analyzing key aspects of the Mideast turmoil, such as public opinion trends within the "Arab Street"; the role of social media and technology; socioeconomic and demographic conditions; the influence of Islamists; and the impact of the new political order on the Arab-Israeli peace process. The next section looks at the countries themselves, finding commonalties and grouping them according to the political evolutions that have (or have not) occurred in each country. The section offers insight into the current situation, and possible trajectory of each group of countries, followed by individual nation studies. The Arab Awakeningbrings the full resources of Brookings to bear on making sense of what may turn out to be the most significant geopolitical movement of this generation. It is essential reading for anyone looking to understand these developments and their consequences. Contents Part I: Understanding the Transformation of the Middle East Part II: The New Democracies Part III: The Struggle for Reform Part IV: The Civil Wars Part V: The Basket Cases: What Now? Conclusion: A New American Grand Strategy for the Middle East Authors include Daniel Byman, Khaled Elgindy, Stephen Grand, Shadi Hamid, Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth M. Pollack, Bruce Riedel, Salman Shaikh, Ibrahim Sharquieh, and Shibley Telhami.

Table of Contents

Preface: Why Should You Read This Book?p. xi
Acknowledgmentsp. xv
Introduction: Understanding the Arab Awakeningp. 1
The Dynamics of the Arab Spring
Arab Public Opinion: What Do They Want?p. 13
Democratization 101: Historical Lessons for the Arab Springp. 21
Islamists and the Brotherhood: Political Islam and the Arab Springp. 29
The Impact of New Media: The Revolution Will Be Tweetedp. 39
The Impact on the Peace Process: Peacemaker or Peacebreaker?p. 47
The Arab Militaries: The Double-Edged Swordsp. 58
The Economic Dimension: The Price of Freedomp. 66
Terrorism: Al-Qaeda and the Arab Springp. 76
Countries in Transition
Democratizers? The Pursuit of Pluralismp. 87
Iraq: The Roller Coaster of Democracyp. 94
Egypt: The Prizep. 102
Tunisia: Birthplace of the Revolutionp. 111
Libya: From Revolt to State-Buildingp. 117
The Palestinians: Between National Liberation and Political Legitimacyp. 128
The Imperative of Reform
Reform: Convincing Reluctant Regimes to Changep. 141
Making Reform Credible: The Critical Piece of the Puzzlep. 148
Saudi Arabia: The Elephant in the Living Roomp. 159
Jordan: An Imperfect Statep. 168
Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE: The Nervous Bystandersp. 176
Bahrain: Island of Troublesp. 188
Morocco: The Model for Reform?p. 196
Algeria: Whistling Past the Graveyardp. 206
States in Crisis
States in Civil War: Challenges for the United Statesp. 213
Yemen: The Search for Stability and Developmentp. 221
Syria: The Ghosts of Hamap. 230
Other Regional Actors
Regional Actors: The Changing Balance of Power in the Middle Eastp. 243
Israel: A Frosty Response to the Arab Springp. 250
Iran: The Bogeymanp. 258
Turkey: An Interested Partyp. 268
The External Powers
External Powers: Riding the Tsunamip. 277
Europe: Muddling Throughp. 285
Russia: Moscow Does Not Believe in Changep. 291
China: Unease from Afarp. 298
The International Order and the Emerging Powers: Implications of the Arab Awakeningp. 305
The United States: A New American Grand Strategy for the Middle Eastp. 311
Appendix: Political, Social, and Economic Indicators of the Middle Eastp. 319
Notesp. 325
About the Authorsp. 365
Indexp. 369
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