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Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis,9780534260347
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Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis


Edition: 02
Author(s): Clemen, Robert T.
ISBN10:  0534260349
ISBN13:  9780534260347
Format:  Paperback
Pub. Date:  8/15/1997
Publisher(s): South-Western College Pub
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SummaryTable of Contents
Here's a straightforward book that teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis - without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new Second Edition of Making Hard Decisions, by Robert T. Clemen, continues to provide readers with a thoroughly enjoyable, easy-to-understand text. The book emphasizes the practical application of decision analysis through interesting case studies and useful exercises that represent the broad range of fields and industries that benefit from systematic decision analysis. Making Hard Decisions also contains up-to-date coverage of modern computer applications. Special attention to the role of the computer in decision analysis, as well as descriptions of the many software packages available - like DPL, Excel, and Data - make this book a handy resource.
1. Introduction
SECTION I - MODELING DECISIONS
2. Elements of Decision Problems
3. Structuring Decisions
4. Making Choices
5. Sensitivity Analysis
6. Creativity and Decision Structuring
SECTION II - MODELING UNCERTAINTY
7. Probability Basics
8. Subjective Probability
9. Theoretical Probability Models
10. Using Data
11. Monte Carlo Simulation
12. Value of Information
SECTION III - MODELING PREFERENCES
13. Risk Attitude
14. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications
15. Conflicting Objectives I: Some Basic Techniques
16. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models
17. Conclusion and Further Reading
Appendixes

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