The Evolution of the Future

In challenging the popular notion that industrialized nations are moving toward postindustrialism, Elwell questions the methodology of futurists. He asserts that simple trend analysis is devoid of both explicit theory and any sense of history, for while eschewing historical or theoretical frameworks, the futurist is free to select or create trends from singular events that correspond to personal hopes or fears. The volume evaluates futurist projections in terms of their consistency with history and theory and concludes that the processes of technological development are rooted in our industrial past and present.

FRANK W. ELWELL is Dean of the School of Liberal Arts at Rutgers State University.