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|
xiii | |
| Preface |
|
xix | |
| Acknowledgments |
|
xxiii | |
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1 | (40) |
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4 | (9) |
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13 | (6) |
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The Political and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Twenty-First Century |
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19 | (1) |
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The Coming Domestic Challenges |
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20 | (4) |
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The Economic and Demographic Challenges of the Twenty-First Century |
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24 | (11) |
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``Oil Crash'' and ``Oil Boom'' in 1996--2001: A Case Study |
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24 | (6) |
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The Impact of Demographics: A Rising Population Means Declining per Capita Oil Income |
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30 | (1) |
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The Ongoing Saudi Response |
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31 | (3) |
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Setting the Pace of Implementation |
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34 | (1) |
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The Security Challenges of the Twenty-First Century |
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35 | (6) |
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Territory, Strategic Depth, and Vulnerabilities |
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35 | (1) |
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Strategic Concerns and Military Requirements |
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36 | (1) |
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The Problem of Strategic Dependence on the West |
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37 | (4) |
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Foreign Relations and External Security |
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41 | (90) |
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Iran and Iraq: The Primary Threats |
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44 | (19) |
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44 | (8) |
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52 | (1) |
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Trying to Live with the ``Enemy'' |
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53 | (3) |
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The Threat of Iraqi Invasion |
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56 | (3) |
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Iraq and Asymmetric Warfare |
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59 | (1) |
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Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction |
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60 | (2) |
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The Saudi Approach to ``Dual Containment'' and the Overthrow of Saddam Hussein |
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62 | (1) |
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The Southern Gulf and Yemen |
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63 | (23) |
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63 | (7) |
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70 | (1) |
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71 | (4) |
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75 | (2) |
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77 | (3) |
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80 | (4) |
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84 | (2) |
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Relations with Israel and Policy Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict |
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86 | (12) |
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The Saudi Shift Toward Peace |
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87 | (2) |
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Peace and the Second Intifada |
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89 | (2) |
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Crown Prince Abdullah's Peace Proposal |
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91 | (3) |
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The Arab Summit: Beirut, Lebanon, 2002 |
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94 | (2) |
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The Arab Peace Initiative |
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96 | (2) |
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98 | (1) |
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99 | (1) |
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100 | (1) |
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Relations with the Greater Arab World |
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101 | (2) |
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Relations with the United States and the West |
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103 | (17) |
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The Formative Period: 1933--1953 |
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105 | (1) |
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Nasser and Arab Nationalism: 1953--1968 |
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106 | (4) |
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The June 1967 War to the October 1973 War |
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110 | (1) |
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The October 1973 War to the Fall of the Shah |
|
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111 | (1) |
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The Fall of the Shah to the Gulf War |
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112 | (4) |
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The Gulf War to the Second Intifada and September 11, 2001 |
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116 | (2) |
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Developments Since September 11 |
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118 | (2) |
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Saudi Foreign Policy at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century |
|
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120 | (11) |
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Politics and Internal Stability |
|
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131 | (30) |
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The Monarchy, the Majlis al-Shura, and the Royal Family |
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132 | (24) |
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134 | (2) |
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Current Prospects for the Succession |
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136 | (5) |
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The Need for Change in the Next Generation |
|
|
141 | (3) |
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The Saudi Cabinet or Council of Ministers |
|
|
144 | (3) |
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The Creation of the Majlis al-Shura |
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147 | (5) |
|
The Changing Saudi Political System |
|
|
152 | (4) |
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Political Reform and Opposition |
|
|
156 | (5) |
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Opposition and Islamic Extremism |
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|
161 | (68) |
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Working Within the System: The Role of Saudi ``Modernizers'' |
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162 | (1) |
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The Character and Impact of Saudi Puritanism |
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163 | (12) |
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Putting Saudi Wahhabi and Salafi Beliefs into Perspective |
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164 | (2) |
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Charity and Extremism: The Flow of Money |
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166 | (1) |
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Most Islamic Puritanism and Extremism Is Not ``Wahhabism'' |
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167 | (2) |
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Islamic Extremism and Saudi Youth |
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169 | (4) |
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Trying to Co-opt Islamic Extremism: The Rising at the Grand Mosque |
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173 | (1) |
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Islamic Extremism and the Failure of Co-option in the 1980s and 1990s |
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174 | (1) |
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Education as a Self-Inflicted Wound |
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175 | (2) |
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Making Women Part of the Problem, Rather than Part of the Solution |
|
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177 | (2) |
|
Religious Extremism and Active Political Opposition |
|
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179 | (27) |
|
Moderate Opposition: Religious Fundamentalism |
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181 | (2) |
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Hard-line Peaceful Opposition: Sheikh Safar al-Hawali |
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183 | (1) |
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Nonviolent Islamist Opposition: Salman al-Auda |
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184 | (1) |
|
Nonviolent Islamic Opposition: Sheikh `Ayd al-Qarni |
|
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185 | (1) |
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``Quasi-Violent'' Islamist Opposition: The Committee for the Defense of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and Muhammad al-Mas'ari |
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185 | (3) |
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Violent Islamic Opposition: The Saudi National Guard Bombing |
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188 | (2) |
|
Militant Islamist Opposition: The Al-Khobar Tragedy |
|
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190 | (1) |
|
The Initial Course of the Al-Khobar Investigation |
|
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191 | (3) |
|
Serious Progress in the Al-Khobar Investigation After May 1997 |
|
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194 | (2) |
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The United States Issues an Indictment |
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
The Role of the Saudi Hezbollah |
|
|
197 | (3) |
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The Detailed History of the Attack |
|
|
200 | (4) |
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The Role of Iran and the Threat of an American Follow-up |
|
|
204 | (1) |
|
The Saudis React with Denials |
|
|
205 | (1) |
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|
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206 | (4) |
|
Militant Saudi Extremists: Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda |
|
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210 | (3) |
|
Militant Saudi Extremists: Other Threats |
|
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213 | (1) |
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Opposition, Extremism, Terrorism, and Saudi Counterterrorism |
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214 | (7) |
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International Cooperation |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
Arrests and Questioning of Suspects |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
Legal and Regulatory Actions, Freezing Terrorist Assets, and Combating Money Laundering |
|
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217 | (2) |
|
Actions Taken in Regard to Charitable Organizations |
|
|
219 | (1) |
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Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism |
|
|
220 | (1) |
|
Looking Toward the Future |
|
|
221 | (8) |
|
Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges |
|
|
229 | (88) |
|
The Dynamics of Recent Demographic Change |
|
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229 | (6) |
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Trends in Total Population |
|
|
230 | (2) |
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Trends Toward Urbanization |
|
|
232 | (1) |
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|
|
232 | (2) |
|
Population Exposure to Media |
|
|
234 | (1) |
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The Future Pace of Demographic Change |
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235 | (4) |
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Demographics, Per Capita Income, and Consumption |
|
|
239 | (8) |
|
Historical Patterns of Inadequate Real Economic Growth |
|
|
239 | (4) |
|
Population, Per Capita Income, and Relative Wealth |
|
|
243 | (4) |
|
Redefining ``Oil Wealth'' in Macroeconomic and Human Terms |
|
|
247 | (3) |
|
Demographic Pressures on Saudi Society and the Saudi Labor Force |
|
|
250 | (11) |
|
Estimating Future Job Needs |
|
|
251 | (5) |
|
The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
256 | (1) |
|
Skill Levels and the Saudi Labor Force |
|
|
257 | (4) |
|
The ``Youth Explosion,'' Foreign Labor, and Saudisation |
|
|
261 | (19) |
|
The Blessings and Curses of Saudisation |
|
|
271 | (1) |
|
Real-World Progress in Saudisation |
|
|
272 | (2) |
|
The Current Level of Progress and Nonprogress in Saudisation |
|
|
274 | (2) |
|
Saudisation and Native Saudi Unemployment |
|
|
276 | (3) |
|
The Impact of the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
279 | (1) |
|
Saudi Economic Development versus Saudi Education |
|
|
280 | (8) |
|
A Mixed Picture of Strengths and Weaknesses |
|
|
280 | (1) |
|
Progress in the Sixth Development Plan |
|
|
281 | (2) |
|
The Impact of September 11 |
|
|
283 | (1) |
|
Progress Planned in the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
284 | (2) |
|
Looking Toward the Future |
|
|
286 | (2) |
|
Saudi Entitlements, Infrastructure, and Diversification Problems |
|
|
288 | (3) |
|
The Challenge of Subsidies |
|
|
291 | (3) |
|
Pressure on Infrastructure |
|
|
294 | (5) |
|
Electricity as a Case in Point |
|
|
294 | (3) |
|
The Broader Infrastructure Problem |
|
|
297 | (2) |
|
The Interaction Between Demographics, Water, and Agriculture |
|
|
299 | (7) |
|
Water and the Goals of the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
302 | (1) |
|
The Impact of Agriculture |
|
|
303 | (2) |
|
Sustaining a National Water Problem |
|
|
305 | (1) |
|
Meeting the Kingdom's Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges |
|
|
306 | (11) |
|
Building True Wealth versus Overdependence on Petroleum and the State |
|
|
317 | (146) |
|
The Saudi Economy at the Edge of the Twenty-First Century |
|
|
318 | (25) |
|
The Key Challenges the Economic Reform Must Meet |
|
|
322 | (1) |
|
Tangible Steps Toward Economic Reform |
|
|
323 | (3) |
|
The Supreme Economic Council |
|
|
326 | (1) |
|
The Economic Consultative Commission (ECC) |
|
|
327 | (1) |
|
The Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals (SCPM) |
|
|
327 | (4) |
|
The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) |
|
|
331 | (2) |
|
A New Foreign Direct Investment Code and Other Measures |
|
|
333 | (1) |
|
The Provisions of the New Foreign Investment Law |
|
|
333 | (1) |
|
|
|
334 | (1) |
|
Foreign Ownership of Real Estate |
|
|
334 | (1) |
|
Fund for the Development of Human Resources |
|
|
334 | (1) |
|
``Negative List'' of Areas Excluded from Foreign Investment |
|
|
335 | (2) |
|
Saudi Efforts to Join the WTO |
|
|
337 | (3) |
|
The Supreme Commission for Tourism |
|
|
340 | (1) |
|
Saudi Efforts to Use the GCC to Strengthen the Saudi and Gulf Economies |
|
|
341 | (1) |
|
Future Reforms Now Under Consideration |
|
|
342 | (1) |
|
Putting Current Saudi Efforts in Perspective: Plans and Goals versus Actions and Achievements |
|
|
343 | (8) |
|
The History of Saudi Planning: The First through Fourth Development Plans |
|
|
343 | (4) |
|
The Fifth Development Plan and the Gulf War |
|
|
347 | (1) |
|
The Sixth Development Plan |
|
|
348 | (3) |
|
Looking at the Future: The Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
351 | (5) |
|
The Macroeconomic Implications of the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
351 | (5) |
|
The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
356 | (1) |
|
The Challenge of Dependence on Petroleum Exports and Revenues |
|
|
356 | (20) |
|
The Other Impacts of Petroleum Dependence |
|
|
365 | (4) |
|
Political and Military Risks of Saudi Overdependence on Petroleum |
|
|
369 | (7) |
|
``Oil Bust'' and ``Oil Boom'': The Interaction Between OPEC and Market Forces |
|
|
376 | (7) |
|
OPEC, Mild Winter, and Asian Recession: The Oil Crash of 1997 |
|
|
376 | (5) |
|
The Wheel Turns: The Oil Crash Turns into an Oil Boom |
|
|
381 | (2) |
|
Oil Wealth and Demographics: Understanding the Future Limits |
|
|
383 | (7) |
|
The Challenge of Reducing the Government Sector |
|
|
390 | (1) |
|
Managing and Restructuring the Saudi Budget |
|
|
390 | (20) |
|
Saudi Budgets in the Early- to Mid-1990s |
|
|
394 | (5) |
|
Budgets and the Sixth Development Plan |
|
|
399 | (1) |
|
Budget Deficits, the Oil Crash, and Oil Boom |
|
|
400 | (6) |
|
The Need for Budget Reforms |
|
|
406 | (4) |
|
Foreign and Domestic State Debt |
|
|
410 | (4) |
|
The Limited Impact of the Present Debt Burden |
|
|
410 | (1) |
|
Past History and Future Risk |
|
|
411 | (3) |
|
Privatization and the Private Sector: Intentions versus Implementation |
|
|
414 | (21) |
|
The Seventh Development Plan and Meeting the Challenge of Diversification |
|
|
420 | (2) |
|
The Growth of the Private Sector |
|
|
422 | (3) |
|
The Success of Privatization by Firm and Sector |
|
|
425 | (1) |
|
The Privatization of SABIC and SIPC |
|
|
425 | (2) |
|
The Privatization of Natural Gas |
|
|
427 | (1) |
|
The Privatization of Telecommunications |
|
|
428 | (1) |
|
The Privatization of Saudi Airlines |
|
|
429 | (1) |
|
The Privatization of Postal Services |
|
|
429 | (1) |
|
The Privatization of Electricity |
|
|
429 | (3) |
|
The Privatization of the General Railway Organization |
|
|
432 | (1) |
|
The Privatization of the General Port Authority |
|
|
433 | (1) |
|
Overall Progress in Privatization |
|
|
434 | (1) |
|
Private and Foreign Investment and Banking Reform |
|
|
435 | (13) |
|
Investment and Stock Market Reform |
|
|
439 | (5) |
|
Opening Up Saudi Arabia to Foreign Investment |
|
|
444 | (4) |
|
Broader Goals for Economic and Social Reform |
|
|
448 | (15) |
|
Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector |
|
|
463 | (88) |
|
The Critical Global Importance of Saudi Oil Reserves |
|
|
465 | (2) |
|
|
|
467 | (20) |
|
The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco |
|
|
467 | (6) |
|
Saudi Oil Production Today |
|
|
473 | (3) |
|
Oil Production and Quotas |
|
|
476 | (7) |
|
|
|
483 | (2) |
|
Expanding Saudi Oil Production |
|
|
485 | (2) |
|
The Case For and Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production |
|
|
487 | (1) |
|
Export Facilities and Distribution |
|
|
487 | (2) |
|
|
|
489 | (5) |
|
|
|
491 | (2) |
|
|
|
493 | (1) |
|
|
|
494 | (4) |
|
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) |
|
|
495 | (1) |
|
Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment |
|
|
496 | (2) |
|
|
|
498 | (4) |
|
|
|
502 | (9) |
|
|
|
504 | (3) |
|
Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector |
|
|
507 | (4) |
|
Saudi Energy Strategy in the Twenty-First Century |
|
|
511 | (14) |
|
The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan |
|
|
511 | (2) |
|
The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister |
|
|
513 | (2) |
|
Longer-Term Saudi Strategy |
|
|
515 | (2) |
|
Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections |
|
|
517 | (2) |
|
Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach |
|
|
519 | (5) |
|
Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand |
|
|
524 | (1) |
|
Changes in Saudi Energy Strategy and Investment Policies |
|
|
525 | (15) |
|
The Problem of Oil Prices |
|
|
525 | (3) |
|
The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy |
|
|
528 | (4) |
|
Oil Crash Becomes Oil Boom, and Oil Boom Turns to Oil Crunch |
|
|
532 | (3) |
|
Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil |
|
|
535 | (1) |
|
Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy |
|
|
536 | (2) |
|
The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues |
|
|
538 | (1) |
|
The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy |
|
|
539 | (1) |
|
Living with Uncertainty, and Doing So with as Little Ideology, and as Much Pragmatism, as Possible |
|
|
540 | (11) |
|
Saudi Arabia at the Start of the Twenty-First Century: Key Conclusions |
|
|
551 | (10) |
|
|
|
552 | (1) |
|
Population, Youth, and a Vision of the Future |
|
|
553 | (1) |
|
The Need for a New Social Contract |
|
|
554 | (4) |
|
Oil Wealth or Oil Poverty? |
|
|
554 | (1) |
|
Creating the Need for a New Social Contract |
|
|
555 | (1) |
|
The State Budget, Subsidies, and Welfare |
|
|
556 | (1) |
|
Privatization and Encouraging the Private Sector |
|
|
556 | (2) |
|
Population and Foreign Workers |
|
|
558 | (1) |
|
The West and the Pace of Saudi Modernization |
|
|
558 | (3) |
| Bibliography |
|
561 | (10) |
| Index |
|
571 | |
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