| Tables and Figures |
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vii | |
| Preface |
|
xi | |
| PART 1 The 2000 Presidential Election |
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1 | (66) |
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1 The Nomination Struggle |
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12 | (19) |
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13 | (4) |
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The Rules of the Nomination System |
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17 | (6) |
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23 31 | (2) |
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25 | (2) |
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27 | (4) |
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2 The General Election Campaign |
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31 | (15) |
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The Strategic Context and the Candidates' Choices |
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31 | (2) |
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From Labor Day to the Debates |
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33 | (3) |
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The Debates: The Republicans Surpass Low Expectations |
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36 | (2) |
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38 | (5) |
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43 | (3) |
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46 | (21) |
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51 | (2) |
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53 | (3) |
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56 | (5) |
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Electoral Change in the Postwar South |
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61 | (2) |
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The Electoral-Vote Balance |
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63 | (4) |
| PART 2 Voting Behavior in the 2000 Presidential Election |
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67 | (126) |
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71 | (25) |
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Turnout from 1828 through 1920 |
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71 | (3) |
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Turnout from 1920 through 2000 |
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74 | (3) |
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Turnout among Social Groups |
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77 | (7) |
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Why Has Turnout Declined? |
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84 | (7) |
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91 | (5) |
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5 Social Forces and the Vote |
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96 | (25) |
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How Social Groups Voted in 2000 |
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97 | (9) |
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How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years |
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106 | (13) |
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Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down |
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119 | (2) |
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6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote |
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121 | (28) |
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Attitudes toward the Candidates |
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122 | (6) |
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Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations |
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128 | (2) |
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The Concerns of the Electorate |
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130 | (2) |
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Issue Positions and Perceptions |
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132 | (3) |
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135 | (4) |
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Apparent Issue Voting in 2000 |
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139 | (9) |
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148 | (1) |
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7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice |
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149 | (19) |
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What Is Retrospective Voting? |
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150 | (3) |
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Evaluations of Government Performance |
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153 | (3) |
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Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent |
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156 | (5) |
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Evaluations of the Incumbent 161 |
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The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations |
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161 | (5) |
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166 | (2) |
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8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote |
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168 | (25) |
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Party Identification: The Standard View |
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168 | (1) |
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Party Identification: An Alternative View |
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169 | (1) |
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Party Identification in the Electorate |
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170 | (6) |
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Party Identification and the Vote |
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176 | (2) |
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Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations |
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178 | (11) |
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189 | (4) |
| PART 3 The 2000 and 2002 Congressional Elections |
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193 | (86) |
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9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2000 |
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198 | (40) |
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Election Outcomes in 2000 |
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198 | (11) |
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Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes |
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209 | (11) |
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The 2000 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
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220 | (7) |
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The 2002 Elections and Beyond |
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227 | (11) |
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10 The Congressional Electorate in 2000 |
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238 | (14) |
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Social Forces and the Congressional Vote |
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238 | (4) |
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Issues and the Congressional Vote |
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242 | (1) |
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Party Identification and the Congressional Vote |
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243 | (1) |
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Incumbency and the Congressional Vote |
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244 | (2) |
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The Congressional Vote as a Referendum |
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246 | (2) |
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Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote |
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248 | (2) |
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250 | (2) |
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11 The 2002 Congressional Elections |
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252 | (27) |
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252 | (2) |
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Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results |
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254 | (4) |
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National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections |
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258 | (11) |
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The 2002 Elections: The Impact on Congress |
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269 | (4) |
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The 2004 Elections and Beyond |
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273 | (6) |
| PART 4 The 2000 and 2002 Elections in Perspective |
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279 | (18) |
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12 The 2000 and 2002 Elections and the Future of American Politics |
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282 | (15) |
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Prospects for the Democrats |
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286 | (4) |
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Prospects for the Republicans |
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290 | (3) |
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Prospects for a New Political Party |
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293 | (2) |
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Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility |
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295 | (2) |
| Notes |
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297 | (52) |
| Suggested Readings |
|
349 | (10) |
| Index |
|
359 | |
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