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Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios,9780471303527
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Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios


Author(s): Editor: Liam Fahey; Editor: Robert M. Randall
ISBN10:  0471303526
ISBN13:  9780471303527
Format:  Hardcover
Pub. Date:  11/1/1997
Publisher(s): Wiley

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SummaryTable of ContentsAuthor Biography
"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager’s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today’s leading practitioners in the field." —Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." —David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning—the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." —David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." —Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." —George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Part I INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO LEARNING 1(54)
Chapter 1 What Is Scenario Learning?
3(19)
Liam Fahey
Robert M. Randall
Chapter 2 Integrating Strategy and Scenarios
22(17)
Liam Fahey
Robert M. Randall
Chapter 3 Using Scenarios to Identify, Analyze, and Manage Uncertainty
39(16)
Brian Marsh
Part II BASIC APPROACHES TO CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS 55(132)
Chapter 4 Plotting Your Scenarios
57(24)
Peter Schwartz
James A. Ogilvy
Chapter 5 Mental Maps of the Future: An Intuitive Logics Approach to Scenarios
81(28)
Ian Wilson
Chapter 6 Scenario Planning: Mapping the Paths to the Desired Future
109(13)
David H. Mason
Chapter 7 Testing Your Strategies in Scenarios
122(18)
Charles M. Perrottet
Chapter 8 Dynamic Scenarios: Systems Thinking Meets Scenario Planning
140(17)
Edward Ward
Audrey E. Schriefer
Chapter 9 Simulation Models: A Tool for Rigorous Scenario Analysis
157(18)
Mark Paich
Roy Hinton
Chapter 10 Scenarios for Global Investment Strategy for the New Century
175(12)
Peter Schwartz
James A. Ogilvy
Part III SCENARIO APPLICATION IN DIVERSE CONTEXTS 187(146)
Chapter 11 Industry Scenarios
189(34)
Liam Fahey
Chapter 12 Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival's Marketplace Strategy
223(23)
Liam Fahey
Chapter 13 Scenario-Based Planning for Technology Investments
246(18)
Charles W. Thomas
Chapter 14 Customer-Driven Scenario Planning
264(21)
John Kania
Chapter 15 Futuring Consumer Products: An Illustrative Example of Scenario Analysis
285(11)
Stephen M. Millett
Chapter 16 The Role of Economic Scenarios
296(12)
Nariman Behravesh
Chapter 17 How Scenarios Enrich Public Policy Decisions
308(17)
Thomas W. Bonnett
Robert L. Olson
Chapter 18 Imagining South Africa's Future: How Scenarios Helped Discover Common Ground
325(8)
Adam Kahane
Part IV MANAGING THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT FOR SCENARIO LEARNING 333(100)
Chapter 19 Articulating the Business Idea: The Key to Relevant Scenarios
335(17)
Kees van der Heijden
Chapter 20 The Effective Implementation of Scenario Planning: Changing the Corporate Culture
352(17)
Ian Wilson
Chapter 21 The Cross-Scenario Planning Process
369(15)
Doug Randall
Robert G. Wilson
Chapter 22 How Information Technology Helps Scenarios Advance from Consensus to Decisiveness
384(18)
Patrick S. Noonan
Mason S. Tenaglia
Chapter 23 Introducing Scenarios to the Corporation: Alternatron 2010 at UNICOM
402(12)
Audrey E. Schriefer
Chapter 24 Writing an Annual Report for Your Organization's Future
414(8)
Wayne A. Earley
Chapter 25 Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning
422(11)
Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Notes 433(4)
About the Authors 437(4)
Index 441
LIAM FAHEY, PhD, a consultant to a number of leading North American and European firms, is an adjunct professor of management at Babson College and a visiting professor of strategic management at Cranfield School of Management in the United Kingdom. Dr. Fahey has authored or edited six books on management, most recently The Portable MBA in Strategy (Wiley), with Robert M. Randall. ROBERT M. RANDALL heads a San Francisco-based publishing business that operates management magazines; he writes management articles, books, white papers, and brochures. He and Liam Fahey are collaborating on their third book, Strategic Management Tools (Wiley).

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