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Challenges in Intelligence Analysis : Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present



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Cambridge University Press
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In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. His book provides a detailed and balanced idea of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis. *Offers a brief introduction to the concepts, vocabulary, and tools of intelligence analysis. *Features more than forty examples, each with questions for further discussion and recommended reading. *Includes an instructor's guide with model answers to the questions for further discussion, as well as suggested exercises and additional background information.

Author Biography

Timothy Walton is an adjunct professor of intelligence studies at Mercyhurst College and is on the roster of subject matter experts at Omnis Inc., an intelligence training consulting firm. The author of The Spanish Treasure Fleets, he served in the U.S. Navy and spent twenty-four years as an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Table of Contents

Figuresp. ix
Prefacep. xi
Problems and Possible Solutionsp. 1
The Main Challenges in Intelligence Analysisp. 3
Attempts to Deal with the Challengesp. 9
From the Ancient World to Modern Timesp. 29
Moses Sends Spies into Canaanp. 31
The Athenian Campaign on Sicilyp. 35
Caesar's Campaigns in Gaulp. 39
Sun Tzup. 45
The Spanish Armadap. 49
George Washingtonp. 55
The First Half of the Twentieth Centuryp. 61
Wilson and the Paris Peace Conferencep. 63
Estimating the Strength of the Luftwaffe in the 1930sp. 69
Stalin Assesses Hitlerp. 79
Pearl Harborp. 89
Targets for the Allied Bombersp. 99
The German V-Weaponp. 105
The Cold Warp. 113
Atomic Bomb Spiesp. 115
Outbreak of the Korean Warp. 123
Counterinsurgency in Malayap. 131
Soviet Strategic Weaponsp. 137
Cuban Missile Crisisp. 143
Aspects of the Vietnam Warp. 149
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistanp. 155
Finding Spies: Ames and Hanssenp. 161
Breakup of the USSRp. 167
Other International Security Issues, Other Placesp. 173
The Yom Kippur Warp. 175
The Fall of the Shahp. 183
Nuclear Weapons Testsp. 189
A. Q. Khanp. 195
Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destructionp. 201
Violence in Iraqp. 209
Domestic Law Enforcementp. 217
The Lindbergh Kidnappingp. 219
Breaking the Mafiap. 225
Airline Tragedies: Pan Am Flight 103 and TWA Flight 800p. 229
Aum Shinrikyop. 233
Colombian Drug Cartelsp. 239
Wen Ho Leep. 247
9/11p. 251
Anthrax Attacksp. 259
DC Snipersp. 265
Medicine and Businessp. 269
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromep. 271
New Cokep. 277
Japan in the U.S. Car Marketp. 281
Further Recommended Readingp. 285
Indexp. 287
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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