Challenges in Intelligence Analysis : Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present

by Timothy Walton

• ISBN13: 9780521132657
• ISBN10: 0521132657
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-08-30
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. His book provides a detailed and balanced idea of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis. *Offers a brief introduction to the concepts, vocabulary, and tools of intelligence analysis. *Features more than forty examples, each with questions for further discussion and recommended reading. *Includes an instructor's guide with model answers to the questions for further discussion, as well as suggested exercises and additional background information.

Author Biography

Timothy Walton is an adjunct professor of intelligence studies at Mercyhurst College and is on the roster of subject matter experts at Omnis Inc., an intelligence training consulting firm. The author of The Spanish Treasure Fleets, he served in the U.S. Navy and spent twenty-four years as an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Table of Contents

Figures	p. ix
Preface	p. xi
Problems and Possible Solutions	p. 1
The Main Challenges in Intelligence Analysis	p. 3
Attempts to Deal with the Challenges	p. 9
From the Ancient World to Modern Times	p. 29
Moses Sends Spies into Canaan	p. 31
The Athenian Campaign on Sicily	p. 35
Caesar's Campaigns in Gaul	p. 39
Sun Tzu	p. 45
The Spanish Armada	p. 49
George Washington	p. 55
The First Half of the Twentieth Century	p. 61
Wilson and the Paris Peace Conference	p. 63
Estimating the Strength of the Luftwaffe in the 1930s	p. 69
Stalin Assesses Hitler	p. 79
Pearl Harbor	p. 89
Targets for the Allied Bombers	p. 99
The German V-Weapon	p. 105
The Cold War	p. 113
Atomic Bomb Spies	p. 115
Outbreak of the Korean War	p. 123
Counterinsurgency in Malaya	p. 131
Soviet Strategic Weapons	p. 137
Cuban Missile Crisis	p. 143
Aspects of the Vietnam War	p. 149
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan	p. 155
Finding Spies: Ames and Hanssen	p. 161
Breakup of the USSR	p. 167
Other International Security Issues, Other Places	p. 173
The Yom Kippur War	p. 175
The Fall of the Shah	p. 183
Nuclear Weapons Tests	p. 189
A. Q. Khan	p. 195
Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction	p. 201
Violence in Iraq	p. 209
Domestic Law Enforcement	p. 217
The Lindbergh Kidnapping	p. 219
Breaking the Mafia	p. 225
Airline Tragedies: Pan Am Flight 103 and TWA Flight 800	p. 229
Aum Shinrikyo	p. 233
Colombian Drug Cartels	p. 239
Wen Ho Lee	p. 247
9/11	p. 251
Anthrax Attacks	p. 259
DC Snipers	p. 265
Medicine and Business	p. 269
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome	p. 271
New Coke	p. 277
Japan in the U.S. Car Market	p. 281
Further Recommended Reading	p. 285
Index	p. 287
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