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Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible. Key Features: - Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus; - Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case; - Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research - Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study; - Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and - A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents. To make the teaching of the cases as turn-key as possible, Beebe and Pherson have created a case-by-case guide, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Instructor's Materials, that is free to all users as a downloadable PDF. Instructor's Materials includes solutions to all of the exercises, teaching tips, conclusions for each of the cases, and key takeaways that can be used to guide classroom discussion. Graphics from the case book and the Instructor's Materials are also available, free, as downloadable JPEG and Power- Point slides. Techniques covered include: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Deception Detection The Decision Matrix Devil's Advocacy Force Field Analysis Indicators Indicators Validator Key Assumptions Check Mind Maps Multiple Hypothesis Generation Multiple Scenarios Generation Outside-In Thinking The Pre-Mortem Analysis Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes Quadrant Crunching Red Hat Analysis Simple Scenarios Starbursting Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats Structured Brainstorming Structured Self-Critique Timelines and Chronologies
Table of Contents
|List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes||p. vii|
|About the Authors||p. xvii|
|How Do I Get Started?||p. 1|
|Who Are the Customers?||p. 3|
|What Are the Key Questions?||p. 13|
|What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?||p. 19|
|How Should I Conceptualize My Product?||p. 35|
|What Is My Analytic Approach?||p. 43|
|Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?||p. 59|
|Where Is the Information I Need?||p. 71|
|How Do Models Help My Analysis?||p. 73|
|What Types of Information Are Available?||p. 85|
|Can I Trust the Sources?||p. 97|
|How Should I Evaluate Sources on the Internet?||p. 111|
|What Is My Argument?||p. 119|
|Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?||p. 121|
|Can I Make My Case?||p. 129|
|Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?||p. 151|
|How Do I Deal With Politicization?||p. 159|
|How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?||p. 171|
|How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?||p. 177|
|Is My Argument Persuasive?||p. 179|
|How Should I Portray Probability and Levels of Confidence?||p. 185|
|How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?||p. 197|
|How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?||p. 211|
|How Do I Know When I Am Finished?||p. 225|
|Case Studies||p. 235|
|Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and Its Broader Implications||p. 237|
|Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany||p. 245|
|The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers||p. 253|
|Financial Crises in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?||p. 271|
|Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?||p. 287|
|Glossary of Terms||p. 303|
|List of Names||p. 314|
|Recommended Readings||p. 316|
|The Analyst's Roadmap (Inside Back Cover)|
|Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.|