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Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

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ISBN13:

9781452226675

ISBN10:
1452226679
Format:
Paperback
Pub. Date:
10/1/2012
Publisher(s):
Cq Pr
List Price: $39.00

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Summary

Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible. Key Features: - Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus; - Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case; - Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research - Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study; - Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and - A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents. To make the teaching of the cases as turn-key as possible, Beebe and Pherson have created a case-by-case guide, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Instructor's Materials, that is free to all users as a downloadable PDF. Instructor's Materials includes solutions to all of the exercises, teaching tips, conclusions for each of the cases, and key takeaways that can be used to guide classroom discussion. Graphics from the case book and the Instructor's Materials are also available, free, as downloadable JPEG and Power- Point slides. Techniques covered include: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Deception Detection The Decision Matrix Devil's Advocacy Force Field Analysis Indicators Indicators Validator Key Assumptions Check Mind Maps Multiple Hypothesis Generation Multiple Scenarios Generation Outside-In Thinking The Pre-Mortem Analysis Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes Quadrant Crunching Red Hat Analysis Simple Scenarios Starbursting Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats Structured Brainstorming Structured Self-Critique Timelines and Chronologies

Table of Contents

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxesp. vii
Forewordp. xi
Prefacep. xiii
About the Authorsp. xvii
Introductionp. xix
How Do I Get Started?p. 1
Who Are the Customers?p. 3
What Are the Key Questions?p. 13
What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?p. 19
How Should I Conceptualize My Product?p. 35
What Is My Analytic Approach?p. 43
Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?p. 59
Where Is the Information I Need?p. 71
How Do Models Help My Analysis?p. 73
What Types of Information Are Available?p. 85
Can I Trust the Sources?p. 97
How Should I Evaluate Sources on the Internet?p. 111
What Is My Argument?p. 119
Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?p. 121
Can I Make My Case?p. 129
Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?p. 151
How Do I Deal With Politicization?p. 159
How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?p. 171
How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?p. 177
Is My Argument Persuasive?p. 179
How Should I Portray Probability and Levels of Confidence?p. 185
How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?p. 197
How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?p. 211
How Do I Know When I Am Finished?p. 225
Case Studiesp. 235
Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and Its Broader Implicationsp. 237
Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germanyp. 245
The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriersp. 253
Financial Crises in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?p. 271
Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?p. 287
Glossary of Termsp. 303
List of Namesp. 314
Recommended Readingsp. 316
Indexp. 319
The Analyst's Roadmap (Inside Back Cover)
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.


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