Introduction to Data Analysis and Decision Making | |

Introduction | |

An Overview of the Book | |

The Methods | |

A Sampling of Examples | |

Modeling and Models | |

Conclusion | |

Getting, Describing, and Summarizing Data | |

Describing Data: Graphs and Tables | |

Introduction | |

Basic Concepts | |

Frequency Tables and Histograms | |

Analyzing Relationships with Scatterplots | |

Time Series Plots | |

Exploring Data with Pivot Tables | |

Conclusion | |

Describing Data: Summary Measures | |

Introduction | |

Measures of Central Location | |

Quartiles and Percentiles | |

Minimum, Maximum, and Range | |

Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard Deviation | |

Obtaining Summary Measures with Add-Ins | |

Measures of Association: Covariance and Correlation | |

Describing Data Sets with Boxplots | |

Applying the Tools | |

Conclusion | |

Getting the Right Data | |

Introduction | |

Sources of Data | |

Using Excel's AutoFilter | |

Complex Queries with the Advanced Filter | |

Importing External Data from Access | |

Creating Pivot Tables from External Data | |

Web Queries | |

Other Data Sources On The Web | |

Cleansing The Data | |

Conclusion | |

Probability, Uncertainty, and Decision Making | |

Probability and Probability Distributions | |

Introduction | |

Probability Essentials | |

Distribution of a Single Random Variable | |

An Introduction to Simulation | |

Distribution of Two Random Variables: Scenario Approach | |

Distribution of Two Random Variables: Joint Probability Approach | |

Independent Random Variables | |

Weighted Sums of Random Variables | |

Conclusion | |

Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions | |

Introduction | |

The Normal Distribution | |

Applications of the Normal Distribution | |

The Binomial Distribution | |

Applications of the Binomial Distribution | |

The Poisson and Exponential Distributions | |

Fitting a Probability Distribution to Data: BestFit | |

Conclusion | |

Decision Making Under Uncertainty | |

Introduction | |

Elements of a Decision Analysis | |

The PrecisionTree Add-In | |

More Single-Stage Examples | |

Multistage Decision Problems | |

Bayes' Rule | |

Incorporating Attitudes Toward Risk | |

Conclusion | |

Statistical Inference | |

Sampling and Sampling Distributions | |

Introduction | |

Sampling Terminology | |

Methods for Selecting Random Samples | |

An Introduction to Estimation | |

Conclusion | |

Confidence Interval Estimation. | |

Introduction | |

Sampling Distributions | |

Confidence Interval for a Mean | |

Confidence Interval for a Total | |

Confidence Interval for a Proportion | |

Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation | |

Confidence Interval for the Difference between Means | |

Confidence Interval for the Difference between Proportions | |

Controlling Confidence Interval Length | |

Conclusion | |

Hypothesis Testing | |

Introduction | |

Concepts in Hypothesis Testing | |

Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean | |

Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters | |

Tests for Normality | |

Chi-Square Test for Independence | |

One-Way ANOVA | |

Conclusion | |

Regression, Forecasting, and Time Series | |

Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships | |

Introduction | |

Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships | |

Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships | |

Simple Linear Regression | |

Multiple Regression | |

Modeling Possibilities | |

Validation of the Fit | |

Conclusion | |

Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference | |

Introduction | |

The Statistical Model | |

Inferences about the Regression Coefficients | |

Multicollinearity | |

Include/Exclude Decisions | |

Stepwise Regression | |

The Partial F Test | |

Outliers | |

Violations of Regression Assumptions | |

Prediction | |

Conclusion | |

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting | |

Introduction | |

Forecasting Methods: An Overview | |

Testing for Randomness | |

Regression-Based Trend Models | |

The Random Walk Model | |

Autoregression Models | |

Moving Averages | |

Exponential Smoothing | |

Seasonal Models | |

Conclusion | |

Decision Modeling | |

Introduction to Optimization Modeling | |

Introduction | |

A Brief History of Linear Programming | |

Introduction to LP Modeling | |

Sensitivity Analysis and the SolverTable Add-In | |

The Linear Assumptions | |

Graphical Solution Method | |

Infeasibility and Unboundedness | |

A Multiperiod Production Problem | |

A Decision Support System | |

Conclusion | |

Optimization Modeling: Applications | |

Introduction | |

Workforce Scheduling Models | |

Blending Models | |

Logistics Models | |

Aggregate Planning Models | |

Dynamic Financial Models | |

Integer Programming Models | |

Nonlinear Models | |

Conclusion | |

Simulation Models | |

Introduction | |

Random Numbers | |

Introduction to Spreadsheet Simulation | |

Selecting Probability Distributions | |

Simulating with @Risk | |

Financial Planning Models | |

Cash Balance Models | |

Simulating Stock Prices and Options | |

Market Share Models | |

Simulating Correlated Values | |

Using TopRank with @Risk for Powerful Modeling | |

Conclusion | |

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