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9781403996343

Divergent Paths in Post-Communist Transformation Capitalism for All or Capitalism for the Few?

by
  • ISBN13:

    9781403996343

  • ISBN10:

    1403996342

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2006-04-30
  • Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
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Supplemental Materials

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Summary

The most comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the successes and failures of twenty-seven countries post-communism transformation. Looking at life after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, the book examines and contrasts why some countries have virtually completed their transformation to a liberal polity and economy, while others lag behind. Those that followed a strategy of early and steady reforms on economic, political, institutional and social dimensions have exhibited impressive results in economic performance, attracting foreign direct investment, dealing with the social costs of the transformation and establishing a liberal democracy. Unlike those that have moved gradually, with some countries in a frozen transition after being captured by powerful oligarch groups who have drained considerable state assets.

Author Biography

Oleh Havrylyshyn is Deputy Director and Special Advisor, Office of Internal Audit, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA.

Table of Contents

List of Tables and Figures
x
Preface and Acknowledgements xii
Foreword xv
Anne O. Krueger
Introduction and Overview 1(14)
Part I Background: Transition Debates and Statistical Facts
Key Debates on Transition
15(32)
The search for a transition model
15
Principal debates of the 1990s
12(26)
Main issues looking forward
38(4)
The transitology paradigm in political science literature
42(5)
Measuring Progress in Transition
47(31)
How to measure progress
47(1)
The EBRD transition indicator: how good a measure of progress?
48(10)
Patterns of reform progress over time
58(4)
Main determinants of growth in transition
62(8)
Appendix: unrecorded economic activity and measures of GDP
70(8)
Economic and Social Costs of Transition: A Hard Look at Soft Facts.
78(45)
Introduction
78(1)
Were negative effects inevitable?
79(2)
Aggregate economic costs: lost output and unemployment output losses
81(10)
Impact on individuals as measured by social indicators
91(24)
Summing up the evidence on social costs
115(3)
Appendix: estimates of output loss under different assumptions
118(5)
Part II An Ex Post Transition Paradigm: Uncharted Waters, Pirate Raids and Safe Havens
The SS Transition Navigation Model
123(28)
Introduction
123(2)
The value of comprehensive explanations
125(8)
A parsimonious approach: the navigation model
133(10)
Testable hypotheses
143(3)
What is new in the navigation model
146(3)
Appendix: an illustrative formalization of the navigation model
149(2)
The Search for a Navigation Chart: Legitimate Debates, Vested Interests and Reformist Commitments
151(26)
The release from communist captivity: carpe diem or follow the money?
151(1)
Availability of navigation charts
152(6)
A timeline of economic transformation events
158(9)
Commitment to a liberal market economy
167(10)
From Rent-Seeking to Oligarchy to State Capture
177(26)
Overview
177(1)
Partial reforms and the evolution of rent-seeking
178(7)
Other forces affecting vulnerability to rent-seeking
185(6)
From rent-seeking to state capture
191(8)
Appendix: rent-seeking, vested interests and entrenchment in non-transition economies
199(4)
Safe Havens for Market Reforms: Membership in the EU and Other International Organizations
203(30)
Courtship games of the EU and post-communist countries
203(5)
EU membership incentives: sometimes a carrot, sometimes a stick
208(4)
Unrequited desires for membership
212(4)
Other international beacons
216(4)
EU membership prospects and reform delays
220(5)
Appendix: EU membership as a factor in political and economic reform in the Baltic republics
225(8)
Part III A Summing Up
Future Prospects for Captured States
233(22)
A fork in the transition road
233(1)
Is further transition inevitable or is it frozen?
234(8)
Consequences of a frozen transition
242(6)
Can anything be done to free the captured states?
248(7)
Diverse Outcomes: Liberal Societies, Captured States and Undetermined Polities
255(22)
Introduction
255(1)
Variation in transition progress
255(9)
Why such divergent outcomes?
264(8)
Future prospects and policy implications
272(5)
Notes 277(18)
Bibliography 295(14)
Index 309

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