9780749452261

Forecasting Financial Markets provides a compelling insight into the psychology of trading behaviour and shows how "following the herd" can have disastrous results. It demonstrates how your ability to make money in the world's financial markets depends critically on your ability to make decisions independently of the crowd. \It details the three dimensions essential to achieve successful trading, including an ability to understand the forces at work in logical terms, recognize (and neutralize) any emotional responses to market fluctuations, and design an investment process or trading system that generates objective 'buy' or 'sell' signals. Taking the author's latest research into account, this important book provides you with an in-depth assessment of the phenomenon of cycles, patterns of economic and financial activity, and how to use cycles as a forecasting tool.

Tony Plummer is a director of Rhombus Research Ltd, and is a former director of Guinness Flight Hambro Global Fund Managers Ltd, Hambros Fund Management PLC, and Hambros Bank Ltd. He carries out independent research into the patterns and rhythms of global markets as well as giving lectures on crowd psychology and technical analysis.

Foreword	p. vii
Preface to the fifth edition	p. ix
Acknowledgements	p. xiii
Introduction	p. 1
The logic of non-rational behaviour in financial markets
Wholly individual or indivisibly whole	p. 9
Two's a crowd	p. 15
The individual in the crowd	p. 26
The systems approach to crowd behaviour	p. 33
Cycles in the crowd	p. 41
Approaches to forecasting crowd behaviour	p. 54
The dynamics of the bull-bear cycle
The stock market crowd	p. 73
The shape of the bull-bear cycle	p. 86
Energy gaps and pro-trend shocks	p. 107
The spiral and the golden ratio	p. 123
The mathematical basis of price movements	p. 140
The shape of things to come	p. 153
Forecasting turning points
The phenomenon of cycles	p. 165
The threefold nature of cycles	p. 176
Economic cycles	p. 201
Recurrence in economic and financial activity	p. 217
Integrating the cycles	p. 232
Forecasting with cycles	p. 245
Finding cycles: a case study	p. 256
Price patterns in financial markets	p. 270
The Elliott wave principle	p. 286
Information shocks and corrections	p. 302
The confirmation of buy and sell signals	p. 326
The trader at work
The psychology of fear	p. 351
The troubled trader	p. 361
The psychology of success	p. 377
The mechanics of success	p. 393
Summary and conclusions	p. 405
Index	p. 409
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Forecasting Financial Markets

0749452269

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Table of Contents

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