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RUEY S. TSAY, PhD, is H.G.B. Alexander Professor of Econometrics and Statistics at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Dr. Tsay has written over 100 published articles in the areas of business and economic forecasting, data analysis, risk management, and process control. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Academia Sinica, Dr. Tsay is author of Analysis of Financial Time Series, Third Edition and coauthor of A Course in Time Series Analysis.
Financial Data and Their Properties | p. 1 |
Asset Returns | p. 2 |
Bond Yields and Prices | p. 7 |
Implied Volatility | p. 10 |
R Packages and Demonstrations | p. 11 |
Examples of Financial Data | p. 17 |
Distributional Properties of Returns | p. 20 |
Visualization of Financial Data | p. 27 |
Some Statistical Distributions | p. 32 |
Linear Models for Financial Times Series | p. 39 |
Stationarity | p. 40 |
Autocorrelation | p. 43 |
Linear time series | p. 49 |
Simple AR models | p. 51 |
Simple MA models | p. 69 |
Simple ARMA Models | p. 78 |
Unit-Root Nonstationarity | p. 86 |
Exponential Smoothing | p. 94 |
Seasonal Models | p. 97 |
Regression with Correlated Errors | p. 108 |
Long-Memory Models | p. 115 |
Model Comparison and Averaging | p. 118 |
Case Studies of Linear Time Series | p. 127 |
Weekly Regular Gasoline Price | p. 128 |
Global Temperature Anomalies | p. 139 |
U.S. Monthly Unemployment Rates | p. 156 |
Volatility models | p. 175 |
Characteristics of Volatility | p. 176 |
Structure of a Model | p. 177 |
Model Building | p. 180 |
Testing for ARCH Effect | p. 180 |
The ARCH Model | p. 184 |
The GARTH Model | p. 197 |
The Integrated GARCH Model | p. 209 |
The GARCH-M Model | p. 211 |
The Exponential GARCH Model | p. 213 |
The Threshold GARCH Model | p. 219 |
Asymmetric Power ARCH Models | p. 221 |
An Non-symmetric GARCH Model | p. 224 |
The Stochastic Volatility Model | p. 226 |
Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Models | p. 227 |
Alternative Approaches | p. 229 |
Applications of Volatility Models | p. 241 |
GARCH Volatility Terms Structure | p. 242 |
Option Pricing and Hedging | p. 245 |
Time-varying Correlations and Betas | p. 248 |
Minimum Variance Portfolios | p. 256 |
Prediction | p. 260 |
High-Frequency Financial Data | p. 271 |
Nonsynchronous Trading | p. 272 |
Bid - Ask Spread of Trading Prices | p. 275 |
Empirical Characteristics of Trading Data | p. 278 |
Models for Price Changes | p. 285 |
Duration Models | p. 296 |
Realized Volatility | p. 305 |
Value at Risk | p. 325 |
Risk Measure and Coherence | p. 326 |
Remarks on Calculating Risk Measures | p. 334 |
RiskMetrics | p. 335 |
An Econometric Approach | p. 342 |
Quantile Estimation | p. 349 |
Extreme Value Theory | p. 354 |
An Extreme Value Approach to VaR | p. 364 |
Peaks Over Thresholds | p. 369 |
The Stationary Loss Processes | p. 378 |
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