Iraq, Its Neighbors, and the United States

by Barkey, Henri J.; Lasensky, Scott B.; Marr, Phebe; Baker, James A., III; Hamilton, Lee H.

• ISBN13: 9781601270771
• ISBN10: 1601270771
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-10-31
• Publisher: United States Inst of Peace Pr

Summary

Iraq, Its Neighbors, and the United States examines how Iraq's evolving political order affects it complex relationships with its neighbors and the United States. The book depicts a region unbalanced, shaped by new and old tensions, struggling with a classic collective action dilemma, and anxious about Iraq's political future, as well as America's role in the region, all of which suggest trouble ahead absent concerted efforts to promote regional cooperation. In the volume's ease studies, acclaimed scholars and experts review Iraq's bilateral relationships with Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states, Syria, and Jordan and explore how Iraq's neighbors could advance the country's transition to security and stability. The volume also looks at the United States' relations with and long-term strategic interests in Iraq and offers recommendations for how the United States can help Iraq strengthen and grow. Book jacket.

Author Biography

Henri J. Barkey is the Bernard Land Bertha F. Cohen Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Coauthor of Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace (USIP Press, 2008), Scott B. Lasensky is a senior program officer at the Institute's Center for Conflict Management and directed USIP's Iraq and Its Neighbors initiative. An internationally recognized scholar on Iraqi history and politics, Phebe Marr is the author of The Modern History of Iraq and a former senior fellow at USIP (2004-05).

Table of Contents

Foreword	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xiii
Maps	p. xv
Introduction	p. 1
New Tensions	p. 3
Continuities	p. 5
Collective-Action Dilemma	p. 6
Uncertainty	p. 7
Methodology	p. 8
The View from Iraq
The New Iraq: The Post-2003 Upheavals and Regional Aftershocks	p. 13
Changes in Post-2003 Iraq	p. 15
Continuities in Post-2003 Iraq	p. 30
Potential Future Trends and Their Impact on Neighbors	p. 35
The Neighbors
A Transformed Relationship: Turkey and Iraq	p. 45
Turkey's Policy toward Iraq and the Kurds, 1958-2009	p. 46
Turkey's New Iraq Policy and Kurdish Initiative: What Changed?	p. 53
Key Agents of Change	p. 62
The Limitations of the New Policy	p. 65
Turkey, Iraq, and the United States: Long-Term Compatibility of Interests	p. 68
Iran's Strategies and Objectives in Post-Saddam Iraq	p. 73
Iran's Tortured Relations with Iraq-1921-2003	p. 75
Iran's Shi'a Card	p. 77
Iran's Fears and Concerns on the Eve of the U.S. Invasion	p. 79
Iran's Iraq Policy: The Two Phases	p. 81
The Irony of Expanding Power through Elections	p. 82
Iran Hedges Its Bets	p. 85
Iran's Sphere of Influence in Southern Iraq	p. 88
Iran's U.S. Strategy on the Battlegrounds of Iraq	p. 90
A Thorn in Iran's Side	p. 92
Conclusion	p. 94
Saudi-Iraq Relations: Devolving Chaos or Acrimonious Stability?	p. 99
Iran, Iraq, and the Regional Balance of Power	p. 102
Saudi Arabia's Sectarian Pasts and Futures	p. 108
The Security Paradox	p. 111
Sources of Saudi Arabia's Leverage over the United States	p. 114
Conclusion	p. 117
Iraq and Its Gulf Arab Neighbors: Avoiding Risk, Seeking Opportunity	p. 119
Background	p. 121
The Gulf Arabs' Security Vision	p. 125
Strategic Options for the Gulf Arabs	p. 135
The Hard Truths about Gulf Security	p. 139
Conclusion	p. 142
Syria and the New Iraq: Between Rivalry and Rapprochement	p. 145
A Relations Roller Coaster	p. 146
A Long History of Animosity and Mistrust	p. 148
Syrian Interests and Threat Perceptions in Iraq	p. 152
Syrian Vectors of Influence in Iraq	p. 160
Compatibility with U.S. Interests	p. 163
Coming to Terms: Jordan's Embrace of Post-Saddam Iraq	p. 165
Jordan's Interests and Threat Perceptions	p. 168
Jordan's Interests: Unchanged and Newfound	p. 174
Compatibility of Jordanian and U. S. Interests-Past, Present, and Future	p. 179
Jordan-Iraqi Relations: Future Sources of Tension	p. 182
Conclusion	p. 185
Iraq, Arab Politics, and the Regional Order: Lessons Learned
The New Iraq and Arab Political Reform: Drawing New Boundaries (and Reinforcing Old Ones)	p. 189
Iraq and the Strengthening of Arab Sectarian Divides	p. 191
Iraq and Opposition Alliances in the Arab World	p. 196
Conclusion	p. 205
Ties that Bind: The United States, Iraq, and the Neighbors	p. 209
What's in It for the United States?	p. 210
An End in Itself or a Means to an End?	p. 212
Diplomacy as Leverage	p. 215
Diplomatic Geometry	p. 217
Protecting the Neighbors from Iraq	p. 223
The Wider Aperture	p. 229
Index	p. 233
Contributors	p. 243
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