Market Upside Down : How to Invest Profitably in a Shrinking Economy

by Tran, Vinh Q.

• ISBN13: 9780137044863
• ISBN10: 0137044860
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2010-01-28
• Publisher: FT Press

Summary

The U.S. economic crisis of 2008 isn't over! The next bubble, explosive government debt, is brewing. At the same time, the economy can't generate growth, the treasury is exhausted, the Fed's balance sheet is over-stressed, consumers remain deep in debt, and short-term interest rates are at near-zero. Intelligent investors can't just mourn the death of easy profits: they want and need new strategies for success through history's potentially worst equity market. InMarket Upside Down, Dr. Vinh Q. Tran presents those strategies. Tran begins by explaining why the U.S. financial crisis will only get worse. He then provides professional and active investors a comprehensive framework for profiting in an upside down market that could last for decades. Drawing on his market expertise, as well as experience as money manager to institutional and wealthy investors, Tran shows how to build wealth and generate return in times of crisis with a focus on what will matter most in the coming years: liquidity and risk management. Tran helps investors explore global investments and opportunities that won't depend on the troubled U.S. economy or a reinvigorated market soaring, and shows how to profit from the coming age of scarcity. Along the way, he demonstrates how to use fixed income, hedge funds, and non-traditional investments, with minimal equity risks to create a portfolio that is positioned to provide liquidity, profits and importantly to weather future crises.

Author Biography

Dr. Vinh Q. Tran has spent more than 20 years as a money manager for global financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Aetna Life & Casualty, where he managed global investments, hedged equities and alternative investments, and advised wealthy individual and institutional investors. Throughout his career, Dr. Tran has earned high acclaim for his investment performance from Fortune, The New York Times, Morningstar, and others.

 

Dr. Tran has taught advanced investment as adjunct professor of Finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business. He holds a Ph.D. and MBA in Finance from George Washington University, and graduated magna cum laude in both Accounting and Political Science from the University of Dalat, Vietnam.

 

Dr. Tran is the author of Evaluating Hedge Fund Performance and Foreign Exchange Management in Multinational Firms. He resides in Greenwich, Connecticut with his wife and two children.

 

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. xii
About the Author	p. xiii
Introduction	p. 1
Black Swan Octobers	p. 7
Black Monday	p. 7
The 2000 Bear Market	p. 8
The 2008 Market Crash	p. 11
The Prospects Beyond	p. 14
Japan: The Setting Sun	p. 33
Rising from the Ashes	p. 33
The Collapse of the Nikkei	p. 36
Collapse of Real Estate	p. 39
The Stock Market and Real Estate	p. 45
Fixing the System	p. 51
The Root Causes: Leveraging and Excess	p. 59
Housing as Leveraged Securities	p. 62
Excess: Upside-Down Pyramid	p. 67
Leveraging Household Assets	p. 75
Leveraging the Economy	p. 77
A New Reality	p. 82
The New Economic Reality	p. 83
Impaired Balance Sheet	p. 88
Lower Economic Growth	p. 96
A Future Unlike the Past	p. 110
Bulls and Bears: The Long Cycles	p. 113
Volatility Is the Norm	p. 113
Looking to the Future	p. 118
Another Crisis, Another Bailout	p. 131
Investment Paradigms: Beliefs and Reality	p. 133
Stocks as Protection Against Inflation	p. 135
Averaging Out the Losses	p. 137
Return, Volatility, and Risk of Capital Losses	p. 140
Risks of the Highly Improbables	p. 145
Diversification and Risk Reduction	p. 146
The Market Is Going Up!	p. 150
Long-Term Investing and Final Wealth	p. 152
When Markets Are Upside Down	p. 154
Investing in Markets Upside Down	p. 157
A Walk in the Woods	p. 158
An Open Mind	p. 164
Capital Preservation Is Key	p. 167
Know Your Objectives	p. 173
Absolute Return Investing	p. 179
Beware of the Risks	p. 181
Systemic Risks	p. 182
Market and Manager Risks	p. 185
"Fake" Diversification	p. 191
Illusory Profits	p. 195
Liquidity and Safety	p. 196
Manage Risks to Preserve Capital and Build Wealth	p. 201
Absolute Return: Manage Risks and Build Wealth	p. 203
Absolute Return	p. 204
Wealth, Volatility, and Market Declines	p. 207
Build Final Wealth with Absolute Return	p. 213
Paths to Absolute Return	p. 215
Absolute Return with Opportunistic Profits	p. 226
Absolute Return and Alpha	p. 231
Alpha Investing	p. 232
Absolute Return with Alpha	p. 242
Caveat Emptor	p. 250
Expanding Alpha	p. 258
Beyond the Traditional	p. 261
Emerging Markets	p. 262
Commodities	p. 275
Alternative Investments	p. 281
Absolute Return and Opportunistic Profits	p. 286
Conclusion	p. 287
Notes	p. 293
Index	p. 311
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.