9780521633000

Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780521633000

  • ISBN10:

    0521633001

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 1999-08-28
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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Summary

At present much of political science consists of a large body of formal mathematical work that remains largely unexplored empirically and an expanding use of sophisticated statistical techniques. While there are examples of noteworthy efforts to bridge the gap between these, there is still a need for much more cooperative work between formal theorists and empirical researchers in the discipline. This book explores how empirical analysis has, can, and should be used to evaluate formal models in political science. The book is intended to be a guide for active and future political scientists who are confronting the issues of empirical analysis with formal models in their work and as a basis for a needed dialogue between empirical and formal theoretical researchers in political science. These developments, if combined, are potentially a basis for a new revolution in political science.

Author Biography

Rebecca B. Morton is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments ix
I Introduction 1(30)
Political Science's Dilemma
3(28)
The Problem
3(10)
Source of the Dilemma
13(11)
Goal of This Book
24(2)
Examples in the Book
26(1)
Plan of the Book
27(1)
Using the Book
28(3)
II Formal Models in Political Science 31(68)
What Makes a Model Formal?
33(42)
There Are Many Different Types of Models
33(1)
The Scientific Process and Model Building
33(29)
Mathematics in Formal Models
62(11)
Conclusions
73(2)
The Variety of Formal Models
75(24)
Rational Choice-Based Models
75(7)
Game Theoretic Models
82(2)
Rationality Relaxed
84(10)
A Typology of Formal Models
94(2)
Mathematical Techniques
96(3)
III Empirical Evaluation of Formal Models 99(178)
Fundamentals of Empirical Evaluation
101(41)
Types of Empirical Evaluations of Formal Models
101(5)
The Model, the Truth, and Randomness
106(26)
Other Implementation Issues
132(8)
The Value of Multiple Evaluations
140(2)
Evaluating Assumptions
142(22)
Justifying Assumptions
142(4)
Examples of Assumption Evaluation
146(14)
Assumptions, Complexity, and Pure Theory
160(1)
Implications of the Examples
161(3)
Evaluating Predictions: Equilibria, Disequilibria, and Multiequilibria
164(45)
Evaluating Equilibrium Point Predictions
164(18)
What Does Disequilibrium Mean for Empirical Predictions?
182(1)
Multiple Equilibria Predictions
183(22)
Implications of the Examples
205(4)
Evaluating Relationship Predictions
209(33)
Evaluating Comparative Static Predictions
210(12)
Evaluating Process or Dynamic Path Predictions
222(13)
Extending the Empirical Focus
235(3)
Policy Implications of Formal Models
238(1)
Implications of the Examples
239(3)
Evaluating Alternative Models
242(35)
Alternatives or Not?
242(4)
Contrasting Explanations
246(12)
Dimensions of Comparability
258(7)
Generalizability of Empirical Comparisons of Alternative Models
265(1)
Formal versus Nonformal Models Redux
266(8)
Implications of the Examples
274(3)
IV A Second Revolution 277(18)
The Present and the Future
279(16)
Guidelines for the Present
279(8)
Revolutionary Political Science
287(6)
A Call for ``Constructive Criticism''
293(2)
References 295(22)
Name Index 317(5)
Subject Index 322

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