The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

by Edited By Mark L. Taper and Subhash R Lele

• ISBN13: 9780226789576
• ISBN10: 0226789578
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-08-01
• Publisher: Univ of Chicago Pr

Summary

An exploration of the statistical foundations of scientific inference,The Nature of Scientific Evidenceasks what constitutes scientific evidence and whether scientific evidence can be quantified statistically. Mark Taper, Subhash Lele, and an esteemed group of contributors explore the relationships among hypotheses, models, data, and inference on which scientific progress rests in an attempt to develop a new quantitative framework for evidence. Informed by interdisciplinary discussions among scientists, philosophers, and statisticians, they propose a new "evidential" approach, which may be more in keeping with the scientific method.The Nature of Scientific Evidencepersuasively argues that all scientists should care more about the fine points of statistical philosophy because therein lies the connection between theory and data.Though the book uses ecology as an exemplary science, the interdisciplinary evaluation of the use of statistics in empirical research will be of interest to any reader engaged in the quantification and evaluation of data.

Author Biography

Mark L. Taper is an associate professor in the Department of Ecology at Montana State University. Subhash R. Lele is a professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences at the University of Alberta.

Table of Contents

Foreword by C.R. Rao	xi
Preface	xv
PART 1 SCIENTIFIC PROCESS	1	(72)
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
1 A Brief Tour of Statistical Concepts	3	(14)
Nicholas Lewin-Koh, Mark L. Taper, and Subhash R. Lele
2 Models of Scientific Inquiry and Statistical Practice: Implications for the Structure of Scientific Knowledge	17	(34)
Brian A. Maurer
2.1 Commentary
Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and John G. Bennett	32	(7)
2.2 Commentary
Mark L. Wilson	39	(4)
2.3 Rejoinder
Brian A. Maurer	43	(8)
3 Experiments, Observations, and Other Kinds of Evidence	51	(22)
Samuel M. Scheiner
3.1 Commentary
Marie-Josee Fortin	66	(1)
3.2 Commentary
Manuel C. Molles, Jr.	67	(2)
3.3 Rejoinder
Samuel M. Scheiner	69	(4)
PART 2 LOGICS OF EVIDENCE	73	(144)
Overview
V.P. Godambe
4 An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence	79	(40)
Deborah G. Mayo
4.1 Commentary
Earl D. McCoy	97	(2)
4.2 Commentary
George Casella	99	(2)
4.3 Rejoinder
Deborah G. Mayo	101	(18)
5 The Likelihood Paradigm for Statistical Evidence	119	(34)
Richard Royall
5.1 Commentary
D.R. Cox	138	(2)
5.2 Commentary
Martin Curd	140	(5)
5.3 Rejoinder
Richard Royall	145	(8)
6 Why Likelihood?	153	(38)
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober
6.1 Commentary
Michael Kruse	165	(2)
6.2 Commentary
Robert J. Boik	167	(14)
6.3 Rejoinder
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober	181	(10)
7 Evidence Functions and the Optimality of the Law of Likelihood	191	(26)
Subhash R. Lele
7.1 Commentary
Christopher C. Heyde	203	(2)
7.2 Commentary
Paul I. Nelson	205	(2)
7.3 Rejoinder
Subhash R. Lele	207	(10)
PART 3 REALITIES OF NATURE	217	(108)
Overview
Mark S. Boyce
8 Whole-Ecosystem Experiments: Replication and Arguing from Error	221	(54)
Jean A. Miller and Thomas M. Frost
8.1 Commentary
William A. Link	248	(8)
8.2 Commentary
Charles E. McCulloch	256	(2)
8.3 Rejoinder
Jean A. Miller	258	(17)
9 Dynamical Models as Paths to Evidence in Ecology	275	(23)
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
9.1 Commentary Steven
Hecht Orzack	286	(4)
9.2 Commentary
Philip M. Dixon	290	(2)
9.3 Rejoinder
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele	292	(6)
10 Constraints on Negative Relationships: Mathematical Causes and Ecological Consequences	298	(27)
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly
10.1 Commentary
Robert D. Holt and Norman A. Slade	308	(7)
10.2 Commentary
Steve Cherry	315	(3)
10.3 Rejoinder
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S.K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly	318	(7)
PART 4 SCIENCE, OPINION, AND EVIDENCE	325	(112)
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
11 Statistics and the Scientific Method in Ecology	327	(52)
Brian Dennis
11.1 Commentary
Charles E. McCulloch	360	(2)
11.2 Commentary
Aaron M. Ellison	362	(5)
11.3 Rejoinder
Brian Dennis	367	(12)
12 Taking the Prior Seriously: Bayesian Analysis without Subjective Probability	379	(31)
Daniel Goodman
12.1 Commentary
Nozer D. Singpurwalla	400	(1)
12.2 Rejoinder
Daniel Goodman	401	(9)
13 Elicit Data, Not Prior: On Using Expert Opinion in Ecological Studies	410	(27)
Subhash R. Lele
13.1 Commentary
R. Cary Tuckfield	423	(5)
13.2 Commentary
Lance A. Waller	428	(3)
13.3 Rejoinder
Subhash R. Lele	431	(6)
PART 5 MODELS, REALITIES, AND EVIDENCE	437	(88)
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
14 Statistical Distances as Loss Functions in Assessing Model Adequacy	439	(49)
Bruce G. Lindsay
14.1 Commentary
D.R. Cox	478	(2)
14.2 Commentary
Stephen P. Ellner	480	(3)
14.3 Rejoinder
Bruce G. Lindsay	483	(5)
15 Model Identification from Many Candidates	488	(37)
Mark L. Taper
15.1 Commentary
Isabella Verdinelli and Larry Wasserman	501	(7)
15.2 Commentary
Hamparsum Bozdogan	508	(11)
15.3 Rejoinder
Mark L. Taper	519	(6)
PART 6 CONCLUSION	525	(28)
16 The Nature of Scientific Evidence: A Forward-Looking Synthesis	527	(26)
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
List of Contributors	553	(4)
Index	557