Phantom Menace or Looming Danger?

by Vogel, Kathleen M.

• ISBN13: 9781421407432
• ISBN10: 1421407434
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2012-11-06
• Publisher: Johns Hopkins Univ Pr

Summary

The horrifying terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and the anthrax strikes that soon followed gave the United States new reason to fear unconventional enemies and atypical weapons. These fears have prompted extensive research, study, and planning within the U.S. military, intelligence, and policy communities regarding potential attacks involving biological weapons. In Phantom Menace or Looming Danger? Kathleen M. Vogel argues for a major shift in how analysts assess bioweapons threats. She calls for an increased focus on the social and political context in which technological threats are developed. Vogel uses case studies to illustrate her theory: Soviet anthrax weapons development, the Iraqi mobile bioweapons labs, and two synthetic genomic experiments. She concludes with recommendations for analysts and policymakers to integrate sociopolitical analysis with data analysis, thereby making U.S. bioweapon assessments more accurate. Students of security policy will find her innovative framework appealing, her writing style accessible, and the many illustrations helpful. These features also make Phantom Menace or Looming Danger? a must-read for government policymakers and intelligence experts.

Author Biography

Kathleen M. Vogel is an associate professor of science and technology studies at the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, Cornell University.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. vii
The Bioweapons Threat and Assessment Problem
Bioweapons and National Security	p. 3
Technological Frames and Narratives in U.S. Bioweapons Assessments and Policymaking	p. 16
Science in a Social Context
Overview: The Biosocial Frame	p. 59
Synthetic Genomics, the Biotech Revolution, and Bioterrorism	p. 71
Soviet Bioweapons Know-How and Proliferation Threats	p. 106
Analytic Failures in Bioweapons Assessments
Overview: "Curveball" and the Iraqi Mobile Bioweapons Threat	p. 131
Expertise and Analytic Practice	p. 148
Current Intelligence Reporting and CIA Analytic Practice	p. 183
Secrecy and the Production of the Iraqi Mobile Bioweapons Threat	p. 216
Alternative Analytic Solutions
A New Knowledge Model for Bioweapons Intelligence Assessments	p. 249
Conclusion	p. 281
Notes	p. 289
Bibliography	p. 333
Index	p. 361
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