9781412959032

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World : The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

by
  • ISBN13:

    9781412959032

  • ISBN10:

    1412959039

  • Edition: 2nd
  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 11/17/2009
  • Publisher: SAGE Publications, Inc
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Summary

' The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to this field because of its systematic and scholarly approach, and its breadth of coverage.' - Robert Goldstone, Indiana University ' Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes are two of the most eminent researchers in the field. I know these authors to be excellent writers and I have no doubt that their writing style will be suitable for my students. ' -William Goldstein, University of Chicago In the new edition of this award-winning text, renowned authors Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes compare and contrast the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. This book explores theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. New to This Edition Chapter introductions, conclusions, and cross-references between chapters make the text more student friendly An abundance of examples from areas such as finance, medicine, law, and engineering anchor concepts to the real world Increased consideration of descriptive, psychological models of decision making augment the original emphasis on normative, rational, 'Expected Utility Theory' models, bring the book up to date Balance among the three major approaches to judgment and decision making: cognitive psychological analyses of mental processes and heuristics, descriptive algebraic models of judgment and decision processes, and rational models of decision making

Table of Contents

Thinking and Deciding
Decision Making Is a Skill
Thinking: automatic and Controlled
The Computational Model of the Mind
Through the Darkest Psychoanalytical Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition
Quality of Choice: Rationality
The Invention of Modern Decision Theory
What Is Decision Making?
Definition of a Decision
Picturing Decisions
Decision Quality, Revisited
Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example
Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs
The Rationality of Considering Only the Future
The Rest of This Book
A General Framework for Judgment
A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction
Research With the Lens Model Framework
Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models
How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment?
Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model
Objections and Rebuttals
The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions
The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment
Salient Values
Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment
Anchoring on Ourselves
Anchoring the Past in the Present
Judging Heuristically
Going Beyond the Information Given
Estimating Frequencies and probabilities
Availability of Memories
Biased Samples in Memory
Biased Sampling From Memory
Availability to the Imagination
From Availability to Probablility and Causality
Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things
Representative Thinking
The Ratio Rule
Explanation-Based Judgments
Everyone Likes a Good Story
The Conjunction Probabliity Error (Again)
Judging From Explanations
Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom
Scenarios About Ourselves
Scenarios About the Unthinkable
Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past
Sometimes It's Better to Forget
Chance and Cause
Misconceptions About Chance
Illusions of Control
Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn't
Regression Toward the Mean
Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness
Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
What to Do About the Biases
Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities
Comprehending the Situation Being Judged
Testing for Rationality
How to Think About Inverse Probabilities
Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors
The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events
Changing Our Minds: Bayes's Theorem
Statistical Decision Theory
Concluding Comment on Rationality
Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences
What Good is Happiness?
The Role of Emotions in Evaluations
The Value of Money
Decision Utility -- Predicting What We will Value
Constructing Values
From Preferences to Choices
Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives
Ordering Alternatives
Grouping Alternatives
Choosing Alternatives
How to Make Good Choices
A Rational Decision Theory
Formally Defining Rationality
Making Theories Understandable -- The Axiomatic Method
Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory
Traditional Objections to the Axioms
The Shoulds and Dos of the System
Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis
A Descriptive Decision Theory
Non-expected Utility Theories
Gain-Loss Framing Effects
Loss Aversion
Look to the Future
What's Next? New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making
The Neuroscience of Decisions
Emotions in Decision Making
The Rise of Experimental Methods to Study Dynamic Decisions
Do We Really Know Where We're Headed?
In Praise of Uncertianty
Uncertainty as Negative
The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty
The Price of Denying Uncertainty
Two Cheers for Uncertainty
Living With Uncertainty
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