The Road to the White House, 2000: The Politics of Presidential Elections

by Wayne, Stephen J.

• ISBN13: 9780312226381
• ISBN10: 0312226381
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-01-01
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Summary

Wayne (American government, Georgetown U.), a Washington insider specializing in presidential politics for 30 years, takes readers behind the scenes of presidential campaigns for a practical examination of political strategies, implications, and results, He gives a historical overview of elections, then discusses the sequence of events from delegate selection and nominating conventions to media impact and the general election.

Table of Contents

Preface	vii
About the Author	xvii
PART I THE ELECTORAL ARENA
Presidential Selection: A Historical Overview	3	(23)
Introduction	3	(1)
The Creation of the Electoral College	4	(2)
The Development of Nominating Systems	6	(7)
The Evolution of the General Election	13	(4)
The Politics of Electoral College Voting	17	(3)
Summary	20	(1)
Where on the Web?	21	(1)
Exercises	22	(1)
Selected Reading	22	(1)
Notes	23	(3)
Campaign Finance	26	(39)
Introduction	26	(1)
The Costs of Campaigning	27	(4)
The Sources of Support	31	(1)
Finance Legislation	32	(5)
Key Provisions of Campaign Finance Legislation	35	(2)
How to Get Information from the Federal Election Commission	37	(1)
The Impact of the Law	37	(19)
Revenue	38	(2)
Al Gore's Profitable Trip to the Big Apple	40	(7)
Clinton's and Dole's 1996 Preconvention Fund-Raising and Spending Strategies	47	(3)
Expenditures	50	(6)
Competition between Parties and Their Candidates	56	(1)
Money and Electoral Success	56	(3)
Summary	59	(1)
Where on the Web?	60	(1)
Exercises	60	(1)
Selected Reading	61	(1)
Notes	61	(4)
The Political Environment	65	(38)
Introduction	65	(1)
Turnout	66	(10)
The Expansion of Suffrage	68	(3)
Registering to Vote	71	(1)
Other Influences on Turnout	71	(5)
Turnout and Partisanship	76	(1)
The Partisan Basis of Politics	76	(7)
A Model of the U. S. Voter	77	(1)
A More Refined Theory of Voting	78	(1)
Partisan Voting Patterns	79	(2)
Partisan Deviations	81	(2)
The Social Basis of Politics	83	(11)
The New Deal Realignment	83	(1)
Evolving Political Coalitions	84	(8)
A New Partisan Majority?	92	(1)
Summary	93	(1)
Where on the Web?	94	(1)
Exercises	94	(1)
Selected Reading	95	(1)
Notes	96	(7)
PART II THE NOMINATION
Delegate Selection	103	(52)
Introduction	103	(1)
Reforming the Nomination Process	104	(9)
Democratic Rules, 1968--1980	104	(3)
The Iowa Caucus: How It Works	107	(1)
Democratic Rules, 1981--Present	108	(4)
Republican Rules	112	(1)
The Legality of Party Rules	113	(4)
The Impact of the Rules Changes	117	(6)
Turnout	117	(2)
Representation	119	(2)
Party Organization and Leadership	121	(1)
Winners and Losers	122	(1)
Campaigning for Delegates	123	(24)
Basic Strategic Guidelines	124	(10)
The 1996 Clinton Advertising Campaign	134	(3)
The Non-Front-Runner Strategy: Stepping Stones to Prominence	137	(2)
The Clinton Nominating Strategies in 1992 and 1996	139	(3)
Other Non-Front-Runner Approaches: Using the Campaign as a Pulpit	142	(1)
The Front-Runner Strategy: Amassing Delegates	143	(1)
Dole's Nomination Strategy in 1996	144	(3)
Summary	147	(1)
Where on the Web?	148	(1)
Exercises	149	(1)
Selected Reading	150	(1)
Notes	150	(5)
The Convention	155	(34)
Introduction	155	(2)
The Official Convention	157	(6)
Organizing the Meeting	158	(2)
Excerpts from the 1996 Convention Acceptance Speeches	160	(2)
Articulating the Themes	162	(1)
Credentials, Rules, and Platforms	163	(6)
Challenging Credentials	163	(1)
Adopting the Rules	164	(1)
Drafting the Platform	165	(2)
Contrasts in the 1996 Party Platforms	167	(2)
Presidential and Vice Presidential Selection	169	(6)
Strategies and Tactics	169	(1)
Characteristics of the Nominees	170	(5)
The Mediated Convention	175	(5)
Scripting the Convention as Theater	177	(1)
Covering the Convention as News	178	(2)
Assessing the Convention's Impact	180	(2)
Summary	182	(1)
Where on the Web?	183	(1)
Exercises	183	(1)
Selected Reading	184	(1)
Notes	184	(5)
PART III THE CAMPAIGN
Organization, Strategy, and Tactics	189	(34)
Introduction	189	(4)
Organization	193	(5)
Strategic Objectives	198	(12)
Designing a Basic Appeal	199	(2)
Creating a Leadership Image	201	(3)
Dealing with Incumbency	204	(1)
An Incumbency Balance Sheet	205	(1)
Building a Winning Geographic Coalition	206	(4)
Tactical Considerations	210	(7)
Reaching Voters	210	(2)
Orchestrating the Campaign	212	(2)
Targeting Messages	214	(1)
Timing Appeals	215	(1)
Turning Out Voters	216	(1)
Summary	217	(2)
Where on the Web?	219	(1)
Exercises	219	(1)
Selected Reading	220	(1)
Notes	220	(3)
Media Politics	223	(42)
Introduction	223	(3)
Traditional Coverage: Hard News	226	(5)
The Bad News Syndrome	227	(2)
The Story Line	229	(1)
Impact of the News Media	230	(1)
Nontraditional Coverage: Soft News	231	(1)
Presidential Debates	232	(9)
Preparation	236	(1)
Strategy and Tactics	236	(2)
Evaluation and Impact	238	(3)
Campaign Advertising	241	(12)
Techniques and Timing	241	(3)
Targeting	244	(1)
Images and Messages	245	(2)
The Willie Horton Ad: ``Weekend Passes''	247	(2)
The Air War of Campaign '96	249	(3)
A Clinton Negative Ad	252	(1)
The Cumulative Impact of Media	253	(1)
Summary	254	(1)
Where on the Web?	255	(1)
Exercises	256	(1)
Selected Reading	257	(1)
Notes	258	(7)
PART IV THE ELECTION
Predicting Presidential Elections	265	(30)
Introduction	265	(1)
Predicting Presidential Elections	266	(5)
Public Opinion Polls	266	(3)
Television Forecasts	269	(2)
Interpreting the Election	271	(11)
Models of Voting Behavior	271	(2)
1952--1956: The Impact of Personality	273	(1)
1960--1972: The Increasing Importance of Issues	273	(2)
1976--1996: The Evaluation of Performance	275	(7)
Converting Electoral Choice into Public Policy	282	(4)
The President's Imprecise Mandate	282	(2)
Expectations and Performance	284	(1)
The Electoral Coalition and Governing	285	(1)
Personality Politics and Presidential Leadership	286	(2)
Summary	288	(2)
Where on the Web?	290	(1)
Exercises	290	(1)
Selected Reading	291	(1)
Notes	292	(3)
Reforming the Electoral System	295	(38)
Introduction	295	(1)
Modifying Recent Changes	296	(11)
Party Rules	296	(4)
Finance Laws	300	(5)
News Media Coverage	305	(2)
Enhancing Electoral Choice	307	(9)
Turnout	307	(3)
The Electoral College	310	(6)
Summary	316	(2)
Where on the Web?	318	(1)
Exercises	319	(1)
Selected Reading	320	(1)
Notes	320	(4)
PART V APPENDIXES
Appendix A: Results of Presidential Elections, 1900--1996	324	(2)
Appendix B: 1996 Electoral and Popular Vote Summary	326	(2)
Appendix C: 1996 Electoral Vote Distribution	328	(1)
Appendix D: Tentative 2000 Primary and Caucus Schedule	329	(1)
Appendix E: Why Polls Tend to Be Accurate and How They Are Conducted	330	(3)
Index	333