The Road to the White House, 2000: The Politics of Presidential Elections--Postelection Edition

by Wayne, Stephen J.

• ISBN13: 9780312239930
• ISBN10: 0312239939
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-04-01
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Author Biography

Stephen J. Wayne is professor and head of the American government program at Georgetown University

Table of Contents

Preface	vii
About the Author	xvii
Prologue: The Election That Wouldn't End	xix
PART I THE ELECTORAL ARENA
Presidential Selection: A Historical Overview	3	(23)
Introduction	3	(1)
The Creation of the Electoral College	4	(2)
The Development of Nominating Systems	6	(7)
The Evolution of the General Election	13	(4)
The Politics of Electoral College Voting	17	(3)
Summary	20	(1)
Where on the Web?	21	(1)
Exercises	22	(1)
Selected Reading	22	(1)
Notes	23	(3)
Campaign Finance	26	(33)
Introduction	26	(1)
The Costs of Campaigning	27	(4)
The Sources of Support	31	(1)
Finance Legislation	32	(5)
Key Provisions of Campaign Finance Legislation	35	(1)
How to Get Information from the Federal Election Commission	36	(1)
The Impact of the Law	37	(15)
Revenue	37	(3)
Al Gore's Profitable Trip to the Big Apple	40	(5)
The Money Race for the 2000 Nomination	45	(3)
Expenditures	48	(4)
Competition between Parties and Their Candidates	52	(1)
Money and Electoral Success	52	(2)
Summary	54	(1)
Where on the Web?	55	(1)
Exercises	55	(1)
Selected Reading	55	(1)
Notes	56	(3)
The Political Environment	59	(40)
Introduction	59	(1)
Turnout	60	(10)
The Expansion of Suffrage	62	(3)
Registering to Vote	65	(1)
Other Influences on Turnout	65	(5)
Turnout and Partisanship	70	(1)
The Partisan Basis of Politics	70	(7)
A Model of the U.S. Voter	71	(1)
A More Refined Theory of Voting	72	(1)
Partisan Voting Patterns	73	(1)
Partisan Deviations	74	(3)
The Social Basis of Politics	77	(12)
The New Deal Realignment	77	(1)
Evolving Political Coalitions	78	(10)
A New Partisan Majority?	88	(1)
Summary	89	(1)
Where on the Web?	90	(1)
Exercises	90	(1)
Selected Reading	91	(1)
Notes	92	(7)
PART II THE NOMINATION
The Race for Delegates	99	(61)
Introduction	99	(1)
Reforming the Nomination Process	100	(9)
Democratic Rules, 1968-1980	100	(3)
The Iowa Caucus: How It Works	103	(1)
Democratic Rules, 1981-Present	104	(2)
Republican Rules	106	(3)
The Legality of Party Rules	109	(4)
The Impact of the Rules Changes	113	(4)
Turnout	113	(1)
Representation	114	(1)
Party Organization and Leadership	115	(1)
Winners and Losers	116	(1)
Campaigning for Delegates	117	(32)
Basic Strategic Guidelines	118	(9)
The Air Wars of 2000: The Nominations	127	(8)
The Non-Front-Runner Strategy: Stepping-Stones to Prominence	135	(1)
Non-Front-Runner Strategies in 2000	136	(7)
Other Non-Front-Runner Approaches: Using the Campaign as a Pulpit	143	(1)
The Front-Runner Strategy: Amassing Delegates	144	(1)
Front-Runner Strategies in 2000	145	(4)
Summary	149	(2)
Where on the Web?	151	(1)
Exercises	152	(1)
Selected Reading	152	(1)
Notes	153	(7)
Launching the Presidential Campaign: Partisan Consolidation and Public Relations	160	(37)
The Spring Interregnum: Consolidating Victory and Posturing for the Election	160	(4)
The Bush Campaign: After the Primaries and on to the Convention	160	(3)
The Gore Campaign: After the Primaries and on to the Convention	163	(1)
National Nominating Conventions	164	(21)
The Preliminaries	164	(1)
The Tradition	164	(2)
The Official Proceedings	166	(4)
Excerpts from Acceptance Addresses at the 2000 Conventions	170	(5)
Contrasts in the 2000 Republican and Democratic Party Platforms	175	(3)
The Mediated Convention: Theater and News	178	(4)
Assessing the Convention's Impact	182	(1)
Minor Party Conventions	183	(2)
Characteristics of the Nominees	185	(4)
Summary	189	(1)
Where on the Web?	190	(1)
Exercises	191	(1)
Selected Reading	191	(1)
Notes	192	(5)
PART III THE CAMPAIGN
Organization, Strategy, and Tactics	197	(32)
Introduction	197	(4)
Organization	201	(4)
Strategic Objectives	205	(12)
Designing a Basic Appeal	206	(3)
Creating a Leadership Image	209	(3)
Dealing with Incumbency	212	(1)
Building a Winning Geographic Coalition	212	(1)
An Incumbency Balance Sheet	213	(4)
Tactical Considerations	217	(6)
Reaching Voters	217	(2)
Orchestrating the Campaign	219	(1)
Targeting Messages	220	(1)
Timing Appeals	221	(1)
Turning Out Voters	222	(1)
Summary	223	(1)
Where on the Web?	224	(1)
Exercises	225	(1)
Selected Reading	225	(1)
Notes	226	(3)
Media Politics	229	(42)
Introduction	229	(3)
Traditional Coverage: Hard News	232	(7)
The Bad News Syndrome	234	(2)
The Story Line	236	(1)
Impact of the News Media	237	(2)
Nontraditional Coverage: Soft News	239	(2)
Presidential Debates	241	(7)
Preparation	243	(1)
Strategy and Tactics	244	(2)
Evaluation and Impact	246	(2)
Campaign Advertising	248	(12)
Techniques and Timing	249	(3)
Targeting	252	(1)
Images and Messages	253	(2)
The Willie Horton Ad: ``Weekend Passes''	255	(2)
The Air Wars of 2000: Excerpts from the Presidential Campaigns	257	(3)
The Cumulative Impact of Media	260	(1)
Summary	261	(2)
Where on the Web?	263	(1)
Exercises	264	(1)
Selected Reading	264	(1)
Notes	265	(6)
PART IV THE ELECTION
Predicting Presidential Elections	271	(32)
Introduction	271	(1)
Predicting Presidential Elections	272	(6)
Public Opinion Polls	272	(4)
Television Forecasts	276	(2)
Interpreting the Election	278	(13)
Models of Voting Behavior	279	(1)
1952-1956: The Impact of Personality	280	(1)
1960-1972: The Increasing Importance of Issues	281	(1)
1976-1996: The Evaluation of Performance	282	(7)
2000: The Anticipation of Future Performance	289	(2)
Converting Electoral Choice into Public Policy	291	(3)
The President's Imprecise Mandate	291	(1)
Expectations and Performance	292	(1)
The Electoral Coalition and Governing	293	(1)
Personality Politics and Presidential Leadership	294	(2)
Summary	296	(2)
Where on the Web?	298	(1)
Exercises	299	(1)
Selected Reading	299	(1)
Notes	300	(3)
Reforming the Electoral System	303	(46)
Introduction	303	(1)
Modifying Recent Changes	304	(12)
Party Rules	304	(6)
Finance Laws	310	(4)
News Media Coverage	314	(2)
Enhancing Electoral Choice	316	(10)
Turnout	316	(3)
The Electoral College	319	(7)
Summary	326	(2)
Where on the Web?	328	(1)
Exercises	329	(1)
Selected Reading	329	(1)
Notes	329	(3)
PART V APPENDIXES
Appendix A: Results of Presidential Elections, 1900-2000	332	(2)
Appendix B: 2000 Electoral and Popular Vote Summary	334	(2)
Appendix C: 2000 Electoral Vote Distribution	336	(1)
Appendix D: State-by-State Primary Results, 2000	337	(3)
Appendix E: Delegate Accumulation in 2000	340	(4)
Appendix F: Republican and Democratic Party Conventions and Nominees, 1900-2000	344	(2)
Appendix G: Why Polls Tend to Be Accurate and How They Are Conducted	346	(3)
Index	349