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9780833040114

Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis A Review

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780833040114

  • ISBN10:

    0833040111

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2007-08-30
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
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Summary

One approach to expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate is probability distribution, and cost analysts have proposed getting such information from subjective probability distributions elicited from experts. This technical report offers a selective review of the literature of probability elicitation, both in the fields of psychology and statistics and in the cost risk field, and insights from senior people in the cost risk community.

Table of Contents

Introductionp. 1
Elicitation in decision analysisp. 3
Elicitation in cost risk analysisp. 7
Current best practicesp. 9
Elicitation in cost analysisp. 11
Conclusionsp. 15
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

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