Understanding Probability

by Tijms, Henk

• ISBN13: 9781107658561
• ISBN10: 110765856X
• Edition: 3rd
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2012-07-23
• Publisher: Cambridge Univ Pr

Summary

Understanding Probability is a unique and stimulating approach to a first course in probability. The first part of the book demystifies probability and uses many wonderful probability applications from everyday life to help the reader develop a feel for probabilities. The second part, covering a wide range of topics, teaches clearly and simply the basics of probability. This fully revised third edition has been packed with even more exercises and examples and it includes new sections on Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte-Carlo simulation, hitting probabilities in random walks and Brownian motion, and a new chapter on continuous-time Markov chains with applications. Here you will find all the material taught in an introductory probability course. The first part of the book, with its easy-going style, can be read by anybody with a reasonable background in high school mathematics. The second part of the book requires a basic course in calculus.

Table of Contents

Preface

Introduction

Probability in Action

Probability questions

The law of large numbers and simulation

Probabilities in everyday life

Rare events and lotteries

Probability and statistics

Chance trees and Bayes' rule

Essentials of Probability

Foundations of probability theory

Conditional probability and Bayes

Basic rules for discrete random variables

Continuous random variables

Jointly distributed random variables

Multivariate normal distribution

Conditioning by random variables

Generating functions

Discrete-time Markov chains

Continuous-time Markov chains

Appendix

Counting methods and ex

Recommended reading

Answers to odd-numbered problems

Bibliography

Index

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