The Age of Aging How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World

by Magnus, George

• ISBN13: 9780470822913
• ISBN10: 0470822910
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2008-10-13
• Publisher: WILEY

Summary

The year 2008 marks the beginning of the baby boomer retirement avalanche just as the different demographics in advanced and most developing countries are becoming more pronounced. People are worrying again that developments in global population trends, food supply, natural resource availability and climate change raise the question as to whether Malthus was right after all.The Age of Aging explores a unique phenomenon for mankind and, therefore, one that takes us into uncharted territory. Low birth rates and rising life expectancy are leading to rapid aging and a stagnation or fall in the number of people of working age in Western societies. Japan is in pole position but will be joined soon by other Western countries, and some emerging markets including China. The book examines the economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and how aging societies will affect family and social structures, and the type of environment in which the baby-boomers' children will grow up.The contrast between the expected old age bulge in Western nations and the youth bulge in developing countries has important implications for globalization, and for immigration in Western countries - two topics already characterized by rising discontent or opposition. But we have to find ways of making both globalization and immigration work for all, for fear that failure may lead us down much darker paths. Aging also brings new challenges for the world to address in two sensitive areas, the politicization of religion and the management of international security. Governments and global institutions will have to take greater responsibilities to ensure that public policy responses are appropriate and measured.The challenges arising within aging societies, and the demographic contrasts between Western and developing countries make for a fractious world - one that is line with the much-debated 'decline of the West'. The book doesn't flinch from recognizing the ways in which this could become more visible, but also asserts that we can address demographic change effectively if governments and strengthened international institutions are permitted a larger role in managing change.

Author Biography

George Magnus is the senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank and has held this position since 2005. Before this, he was the bank’s chief economist with effect from the merger between UBS and Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998, leading a team of professional economists to the highest accolades in the Institutional Investor and other industry analyst surveys. His previous responsibilities involved senior macroeconomic and managerial positions in Union Bank of Switzerland, SG Warburg and Bank of America. Mr. Magnus’ research is widely known and respected in the financial services community and the business media in the United States, Asia and Europe. He was one of very few to articulate at the beginning of 2007 that a major credit crunch in the United States and the West was likely, with damaging and long-lasting economic consequences around the world. He lives and works in London, is married, and has four children.

Table of Contents

Dedication

Acknowledgments

Preface

Introducing a new age

Everyone is affected everywhere

The demographic debate laid bare

Differing prospects for richer and poorer nations

Demographics and other global trends Endnotes

Population issues from Jesus Christ to aging and climate change

Population take-off, Malthus, and Marx

Fertility debate gathers significance

Falling fertility, family structures, and modern times

Climate change, food, oil, and water join the fray

Food and oil supplies

Water shortages too?

What happened to the dominant species?

Endnotes

The age of aging

Global population changes

Your world party guestlist

Three stages of ages

Aging and dependency

What about the workers?

Dependency ratios for the old and the young are not comparable

The demographic dividend for poorer countries

Conclusions

Endnotes

The economics of aging-what is tobe done?

How the rich world isaging Will labor shortage scrimp growth?

Is it possible to boost the supply of workers?

Raising participation and immigration

Women to work Can we strengthen brain as well as brawn?

Working longer to retirement

Youth trends sap economic strength

How much immigration?

Productivity is the holy economic grail

Will we be able to finance retirement?

Saving less with age, saving less anyway

Changing pension schemes

Retirement and savings in the United States

Endnotes

Coming of age: United States, Japan, and Europe

Aging in advanced economies

Accounting for growth in Japan, western Europe, and America

Removing the sex and age barriers to work

Barriers to female employment

Barriers to older workers in employment

Later retirement is more than just a matter of law

A Singaporean model for all?

Who's for change?

Endnotes

Will aging damage your wealth?

Will there been enough in the personal savings pot?

Savings patterns and trends in Japan

Savings in the United States

Savings in Europe Less generous pensions

More self-reliance for retirement savings

Government spending and more public debt

Age-related spending: pensions

Age-related spending: healthcare

Age-related spending in OECD countries

America's healthcare and public spending explosion

Paying for aging Fiscal versus fallen angels

Will aging societies inflate or deflate?

Will aging damage your wealth?

Less buoyant returns but new opportunities

Safe as houses? Prime-age house buyers in decline:who will buy?

Wealthy and healthy?

Endnotes

Waiting in the wings: aging in emerging and developing nations

Aging faster than rich countries

Demographic dividend and dependency

Asian strengths and weaknesses Gender discrimination

China-Middle Kingdom, middle age One-child policy

Running out of cheap labor Economic consequences

Growing social policy agenda India and its h

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