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Annual Edition: Westerhof
Preface
Series
Topic Guide
Internet References
David Cameron’s Dangerous Game: The Folly of Flirting with an EU Exit, Matthias Matthijs, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2013
A British exit from the European Union is considered disastrous for the United Kingdom, as well as for the rest of Europe and the United States. Within the United Kingdom there is a dislike for Brussels, Belgium, on many fronts. The British Prime Minister, David Cameron, has not been successful in calculating and neutralizing the “restless Europeskeptic backbenchers.” Cameron’s actions differ from Margaret Thatcher, who was a driving force in the establishment of a European common market in the 1980s. Ironically, Churchill was one of the first European leaders to call for a United States of Europe. But it was DeGaulle who vetoed the United Kingdom’s application to join the European Economic Community. DeGaulle had a grudge against Churchill, and thus is history made. Today many believe that real danger would be generated if the United Kingdom chooses to end its relationship with Europe.
Defending an Open, Global, Secure and Resilient Internet, John D. Negroponte, Samuel J. Palmisano, and Adam Segal, Task Force Report, Council on Foreign Relations, June 2013
Throughout its public and corporate history, the Internet has been built by an international group of technical, governmental, and user experts who are trying to maintain an open, global Internet. As we have progressed and expanded in global implementation, threats are arising to Internet systems around the world, in corporate, multinational, and global networks within nation-states. There are thefts of every dimension within such intellectual property. Such losses range as high as $500 billion per year. The defacing of websites includes hacking, espionage, sabotage, phishing, using varied tools of political, corporate, industrial, personal and professional means and makes the Internet much more complicated, destructive, and trusting what is reputable is a commonplace concern. A Balkanized Internet beset by such hostile cyber related activities raises questions and problems, not only for the United States government, broadcast and newspaper journalism, but within the global complexities of decision making. This task force report awakens us to such destructive actions in the ever-expanding digital age.
Is Burma Democratizing?, Thomas Carothers, http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/02/is-burma-democratizing, April 2012
Even as events in the Middle East unfold, a significant change is occurring in Burma, a country renowned for gunning down peaceful protests led by Buddhist monks against the military junta and for placing political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for over two decades. Does Burma typify military regimes? Or democratizing ones? What led to the change and what do the changes augur? As the author notes, our understanding of what is to come needs to be predicated on a comprehension of domestic politics: the people, the institutions and government, and social and economic conditions.
How India Stumbled: Can New Delhi Get Its Groove Back?, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012
From a different vantage point—looking at how an “older” democracy fares—the article reminds us that the road to and of democracy is by no means secure. Consider India, one of the powerhouses of the BRIC group that was considered capable of “growing” its way out of social and political issues. Within a short time, that capability has become mired in political and social stalemate as a result of its economic slowdown. The author argues for political solutions to the economic slowdown; namely, fulfilling government’s promise to punish corruption, reduce regulation, and privatize industries. This article explains that India’s failure to address recent scandals has reduced citizen’s confidence of the government, fueling the informal economy and inhibiting growth.
A Video Campaign and the Power of Simplicity, Noam Cohen, The New York Times, March 11, 2012
This article illustrates the power of participation and communication: Through a 30-minute video of Joseph Kony released in March 2012, the makers brought attention to conditions in Uganda that elicited a wave of outrage that partly propelled the United States to send advisors to help with his capture. Mass mobilization of citizens, it seems, requires a simple message, a definite plan, and a clear political, social, or economic setting: Important elements sometime overlooked in the belief that citizens do not play roles under some regimes.
Intensive Care for the United Nations, Thomas G. Weiss, Current History, November 2010
Sometimes the relevance of studying the political institutions and policies of foreign countries is underplayed because there are regional and international agencies, such as the Organization of American States and the United Nations, that focus on them. This article clarifies why this justification is dangerous: First, institutions with large memberships such as the UN are far from functional. Second, sovereign countries are generally reluctant to accept an over-arching authority. The author points out four significant problems with the UN that may require “radical” changes to achieve functionality. Notably, the solutions involve: (1) recognizing that no country is an island onto itself, i.e., state policies reverberate onto the international arena and vice versa; and (2) creative partnerships that include rich and poor nations. Clearly, inattention to the politics and policies of foreign countries—even small ones—comes at a peril.
Srebrenica’s Legacy: How the Lessons of the Balkans Animate Humanitarianism Today, Anne C. Richard, U. S. Department of State, July 10, 2013
U.S. Department of State Genocide in Srebrenica, some eighteen years ago, is another dark period of the 20th century. The U.S. government continues to support and fully implement Annex VII of the Dayton Peace Agreement, particularly ensuring the right of all citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina to return to their prewar homes. Assistant Secretary of State Richard visited Srebrenica on the anniversary of the genocide to affirm the United States support.
Twenty-Five Years, Fifteen Findings, Philippe C. Schmitter, Journal of Democracy, January 2010
Too often, we fail to consider that theory and evidence—much of what we take as given—are challenged repeatedly and have evolved over time. In this article, we find out the reactions of the Philippe Schmitter, to the theoretical and empirical challenges of the theory of democracy espoused, as well as a “refresher” of fifteen points he considers relevant to the understanding of democratic development after twenty-five years.
Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability, F. Gregory Gause III, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2011
In the vein of “theory” meets “reality,” the author uses the onset of the Arab Spring to flesh out Schmitter’s first of fifteen points: It is difficult to predict democratization. As the author reminds us, few anticipated the Arab Spring.Yet, this is exactly why theory-building remains a fruitful exercise:Theory is not “dead,” and theory-building demands the oversight be acknowledged, examined, and reconciled. Foremost among the oversight is the willingness to believe that the military will side with rulers; second is the underestimation of the role of economic development; third is the downplay of citizens’ mobilization. Alongside these oversights, the author also notes the progress in Middle-East studies that must be congratulated, including no longer explaining Arab in cultural terms, no longer using “old saws about how Islam is inimical to democracy,” and acknowledging the popularity of democracy as a concept in the Arab world.
Few Good Choices for the U.S. in Mideast, Gerald F. Seib, The Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2013
This region is much closer in a broad conflagration than most Americans realize. Sunnis are facing off against Shiites; secularists are acting out against Islamists, and it appears that Obama has limited leverage across a wide swath of lands in the Middle East. It continues to be a bloody turmoil that has been growing worse by the day. The president of the United States is being faced with hard questions that would have been unimaginable in decades past.
Making Modernity Work: The Reconciliation of Capitalism and Democracy, Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2012
In this historical recount, the author provides an overview of competing political economies to clarify the ambivalent relationship between capitalism and democracy. Importantly, the author notes that while protests within modern democratic states may seem to call into question support for capitalism or democracy, they also frequently bolster these institutions by attracting alienated groups to participate. The author points out that such participation and activism, typically petition for policy change or economic redistribution within the existing political and economic regimes and not revolutionary institutional change.
Taking the Arctic Route from China, Costas Paris, The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2013
China’s new shipping frontier is making history. The Yong Sheng ship is the first container transporting vessel to sail to Europe from China through the Arctic. It will cut by two weeks the usual southerly route through the Suez Canal. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), run by Russia, has issued some 393 permits this summer; thus the ships may use the waters above Siberia. The China Arctic to Europe reflects many unknowns in the shipping industry: ice forming on the seas, depending on the temperature; companies investing in bigger ships to carry more loads; greater fuel consumption through this route, even though it is shorter than going through the Suez Canal. Many foreign nations are involved in using the Arctic route from China, and therefore, more permits will need to be granted.
Recalibrating American Grand Strategy: Softening US Policies Toward Iran in Order to Contain China, Samir Tata, Parameters, Winter/Spring 2013
China’s economic and military security is intertwined with its energy security. China became the world’s largest energy consumer in 2009 and surpassed the United States as the largest importer of Persian Gulf oil in 2011. The United States has to rethink its strategy as it addresses the challenge of maintaining its primacy as a global power. It is recognized that as the world becomes increasingly multipolar the center of gravity has shifted to Asia. The national security objective of the United States is to counterbalance and contain a rising China that is determined to be the dominant economic, political, and military power in Asia. China, as the economic engine, is displacing Japan and the United States. In relation to purchasing power parity China is expected to be the world’s largest economy by 2019.
Exclusive: Eritrea Pays Warlord to Influence Somalia—U.N. Experts, Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, July 17, 2013
This United Nations report to the Security Council provides a window into the Horn of Africa nation that bars journalists and is under United Nations sanctions. Eritrea is under a United Nations arms embargo for continuing to support al-Shabab and other armed groups trying to destabilize countries elsewhere in the region.
Rare Haven of Stability in Somalia Faces a Test, Jeffrey Gettleman, The New York Times, June 26, 2010
This article provides empirical support on the types of political institutions needed for large-scale democracy. In particular, it describes how Somaliland has successfully held peaceful national elections followed by transitions of power even as it is surrounded by conflict and violence in its neighboring countries. Perhaps this accomplishment seems all the more impressive given that Somaliland—which is not recognized as a country because of its breakaway status following the disintegration of Somalia in 1991—does not have external onlookers or foreign aid to help along its progression toward democracy. Clearly, the success of Somaliland emphasizes the need for free and fair elections based on inclusive citizenship to buttress political stability.
China’s Cyberposse, Tom Downey, The New York Times, March 3, 2010
There is also a dark side to using the Internet to mobilize citizens. The author points out that the technology is being used to mobilize netizens not only against the government but also against other citizens. In the name of fighting injustice and wrong-doing, campaigns of “harassment, mass intimidation, and public revenge” have been carried out. As the author points out, the reality of the Internet is that engaging in political discourse constitutes one of the smallest uses of the Internet.
The Protesters and the Public, Denis Volkov, Journal of Democracy, July 2012
What is the effect of participation? Consider Russia, where Putin’s political career appeared invulnerable. In Russia, protests in late 2011 and early 2012 showed the government that citizens demand that the government respond to the economic decline, as well as ensure greater economic distribution via the welfare state. Duma elections in September and subsequent street protests helped to relate popular preferences to a government that has been defined by top-down political control. Clearly, even in less-democratic countries, protests and social mobilization may occur. Do we know when and why?
United Arab Emirates (UAE)—Government and Economy, Expat Focus, Expatfocus.cFom, January 2011
The United Arab Emirates currently has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Abu Dhabi has grown to be a cosmopolitan metropolis. It is one of the highest cost of living locations in the world. The vast majority of the residents do qualify as expatriates. The UAE has an open economy with a high per capita income, the government has increased spending on job creation and infrastructure. Dependence on oil export and a large expatriate workforce are significant and offer continued progress and long-term challenges.
Foreign Talent and the Thriving Malaysian Economy, Expat Focus, Expatfocus.com, July 20, 2013
The Malaysia government has a flexible form of governance that has been beneficial in overcoming problems that have beset other countries. By securing foreign talent Malaysia’s economy has expanded further, reaping beneficial foreign investment. This large—scale movement of expatriates to the country has driven up property values and encouraged further growth and building.
The Technocrats and Tahrir, James Traub, Foreign Policy, July 19, 2013
Egypt’s new rulers have $12 billion to spend. Can they make enough economic progress to stave off disaster? “No government erected on the ruins of Mohamed Morsi’s regime will be deemed to be legitimate.” Whatever ordinary Egyptians think of the rulers, investors are paying close attention. Will the government propose new policies? Egypt has also had an exhausting stand-off with the International Monetary Fund. There is no doubt that economic reform in Egypt has become more complicated with each day that passes.
The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity, Henry A. Kissinger, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2012
On January 19, 2011, the president of the United States and the president of China issued a statement proclaiming their shared commitment to a “positive, cooperative, and comprehensive US-China relationship.” Such has been the public commitment, although military and economic actions considered positive in the long run have been taking place. However, all is not peaceful and public dissension continues to balloon amidst a state of controversy that permanently exists at different levels. The clash of issues of supremacy between China and the United States is, in reality, inevitable. Dr. Henry Kissinger believes this is a choice, not a necessity. Do both nations need each other to balance an unstable state of global peace for both the West and the East? Such is for your determination. How do we create a global level playing field if this is to be a reality? From Dr. Kissinger’s perspective, he has been striving to find “strategic concepts” that could be made to prevail over a history of conflict, mutual grievance, and fear.
Disabling the Constitution: Hungary’s Illiberal Turn, Miklós Bánkuti, Gábor Halmai, and Kim Lane Scheppele, Journal of Democracy, 2012
Once in power, executives often redefine states’ institutional structures. In this article, Hungary’s president entrenched his powers by reducing the media’s independency and expanding executive control over the Constitutional Court and the country’s electoral process. This article helps demonstrate how an aggressive executive can expand that branch’s power vis-à-vis others and entrench its powers. The executive’s expansion, through constitutional means, can last past the current regime, institutionalizing power well into the future.
White House’s Egypt Debate Heralds Shift, Adam Entous, The Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2013
Egypt’s violence is fuelling an horrendous backlash against the United States, Britain, and other western countries. Originally, the United States had supported the overthrow of Mohamed Morsi by the military. Dying Islamist protesters, mostly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, are defiant against the military control of General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. The West had warned General al-Sisi against using force to crush the protest sit-in. Egypt is now suffering political and economic damage and an identity crisis.
Chile’s Middle Class Flexes Its Muscles, Patricio Navia, Current History, 2012
In democratic states, responsive executives respond to popular demand. In this article Chile’s growing middle class seeks greater economic security and elected a president to effect change. Recent protests for state-supported education and an expanded social safety-net have caused the center-right coalition government to respond to public demand with a reformed social market economy.
Singapore Poll Energizes Voters, Chun Han Wong, Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2011
Voters in Singapore have historically rewarded one party for the country’s economic success for the last fifty years. However, recent executive elections show that modern voters are asking for an individualized government. Younger citizens with better education and more access to diverse media outlets are responsive to messages asking for expanded executive powers and reduced party influence. Restrained by the constitution, Singapore’s presidential candidates seek to expand the executive at the expense of the legislative branch and reduce the historic power of the dominant party. In turn, the ruling party reshuffled the cabinet and promised more direct public input.
North Korea, The New York Times, October 15, 2012
The recent leadership changes in North Korea, a country often engaged in brinkmanship—as pointed out in the article—lends to the examination of what executive leadership means in dictatorships in order to consider when changes are likely or possible. There are signs that the “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong-un is breaking away from previous leadership styles, including opening up to more Western-styles of dress and interactions and even acknowledging mistakes and failures. These changes, viewed in the context of the spread of cellphones and DVD players, suggest that citizens in North Korea may now be aware of how “poor and backward their country has become” and that this has, in turn, emphasized the peril of the transition to the previously unknown Kim Jong-un. Perhaps in response, the “Supreme Leader” appears focused on domestic conditions, launching plans for trade and economic investment, a pilot program to allow farmers to keep more of their farm yield, and educational reforms to include an additional year of free education.
Wang, Yang Make the Rounds in DC, Chen Weihua, China Daily, July 15, 2013
This was the fifth round of the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Both countries hope to be implementing consensus in enhancing high level exchanges. It is to be seen whether these discussions on economic and security issues, including cybersecurity and actions within the Korean Peninsula, Iran, and Syria will make a global difference. It is to be noted that the dialogue identified 91 areas for further cooperation. Should students of comparative politics be keeping a scorecard?
U.S., China Hopeful of BIT after Talks Reignited, Chen Weihua, China Daily, July 13, 2013
The Bilateral Investment Treaty is considered a priority for the United States and China, for it will benefit the global economy as well. Such dialogue includes all states of investment and sectors. It is anticipated that the playing field will be leveled and provide new opportunities for American businesses.
The Famous Dutch (In)Tolerance, Jan Erk, Current History, March 2011
This article provides one perspective on why legislatures should be representative: failing that, they may lead to “tyranny of the majority.” This article makes the point regarding the Netherlands, where the far right Party of Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands has made discrimination acceptable. For instance, the PVV has brought anti-immigration views into the mainstream by coding them as anti-Islam and capitalizing on fears of terrorism and extremism. The success of the PVV, in turn, appears to increase the acceptability of negative stereotypical views against minorities and xenophobia. If this negativity seems harmless, think again: The massacre in another Scandinavian country—Norway—clearly emphasizes that the need to pay heed to what democracy means for majority and minorities.
Israel’s Unity Government: A Bid to Represent the Majority, Joshua Mitnick, Christian Science Monitor, May 9, 2012
This article problematizes minority control of government. Israel’s parliamentary system has favored minority influences until recent elections. The “tyranny” of Israel’s minority ultra-religious groups, once a product of the government’s proportional representation system, is now challenged by new electoral rules. Is this better for democracy, or should Israel now worry about the tyranny of majority rule?
Non-Telangana Ministers, MPs Oppose Division of Andhra Pradesh, India Today, July 27, 2013
There are some in India who are trying to form a separate Telangana state, while others favor a united Andhra Pradesh. Leaders also met with Prime Minister Singh to put forth their requests. There is certainly a demand for separate statehood, and in the coming months we will hear how the Parliament in India will decide.
BJP Will Achieve Record Breaking Results in Lok Sabha Polls: Advani, India Today, July 27, 2013
Political party dissension and voting results have come to the forefront in the Lok Sabha polls in India, just as, from time to time, they do in the United States. BJP senior leader L.K. Advani had resigned from all party posts in June after the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was predicted to win in a landslide vote. Mr. Avandi withdrew his resignation a day later after intense discussions with other leaders. The BJP party is known as Bharatiya Janata and is a major political party in India; it was founded in 1890. The country is witnessing an economic turmoil with its currency “rupee” depreciating against the dollar with every passing day. BJP has raised its voice. There is every reality to assume that the tide of support will be for the BJP. Both the congress in India and the BJP party are taking this election very seriously.
Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future, Hassan Abbas, May 18, 2011
The Asia Society reported that in order to prevent Pakistan from further deterioration, the nation-state will require a long-term commitment from the governments of Pakistan, the United States, and other international stakeholders. Pakistan 2020 emphasizes that urgent adoption of remedial and innovative areas to confront the enormous challenges facing the nation will increase over time. There is a continuing crisis in Pakistan. Can Pakistan be stabilized?
The CIA’s New Black Bag is Digital, Matthew M. Aid, Foreign Policy, July 17, 2013
In the language of the U.S. intelligence community, surveillance of various actions can be known as a “black bag job” or a “surreptitious entry” operation. This kind of break-in is known inside the CIA and National Security Agency as an “off-net operation.” The black bag operations are today’s CIA clandestine service.
A Cautious Win in Egypt’s Power Struggle, Bob Bowker, Australian Broadcasting Corporation The Drum Opinion, August 16, 2012
What does it mean when announcement that the news of the Egyptian president had dismissed two top military chiefs and retired commanders of the navy and air force is greeted with concerns of backlash from the military? Former Australian Ambassador to Egypt and Syria provides his insights into the events in Egypt. Importantly, the author explains why there is unlikely to be backlash: Even as the political role of the military appears diminished, there are reasons to expect that the military is far from marginalized. Indeed, the concessions to the military underscore the role that the military has played in the political transition in Egypt and continues to play as the sectarian counteraction to the religious dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
Africa’s Turn: A Conversation with Macky Sall, Stuart Reid, Foreign Affairs, June 2013, September/October 2013
President of Senegal, Macky Sall, spoke with Foreign Affairs Senior Editor Stuart Reid in Dakar, June 2013, Senegal gained independence from France in 1960. It has been a bastion of stability and democracy on a continent that is limited, if it has had any success, where such stability is a regional exception. The state is secular; 90 percent of its population is Muslim. Macky Sall is optimistic about the fate of Africa, including the development of Chinese investment. Senegal offers economic growth and stability for Africa and those who invest in that country.
U.S. Army Learns Lessons in N. Korea-like War Game, Paul McLeary, Defense News, March 26, 2013
The Unified Quest war game conducted this year by Army planners “failed to achieve the operational agility” it needed to succeed. As one person stated, it was “largely due to the rigidity” of current deployment models. With all the training and the lessons learned, the director of the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command questioned, “. . .what forces are adequate for the problem of loose nukes?”
What Caused the Economic Crisis?, Jacob Weisberg, Slate, January 9, 2010
As the global economy continues to wrestle with recovery from the crisis of 2008–2009, it is useful to take stock of some of the explanations for the crisis—and to note the extent to which regulatory failure on the part of the bureaucracy played a role in it. As obstacles to regulation continue to overshadow reform, it is important to revisit the balance between free-market capitalism and social protection.
Rumors of Central Command’s Decline are Wishful Thinking, Richard L. Russell, Small Wars Journal, March 29, 2013
Central Command has had to mount a wide range of military interventions in the Middle East and South Asia over the last three decades. There is much history in Central Command of taking the lead in various military campaigns in the Middle East and waging war against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The reports of Central Command’s decline are exa
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