The Art of the Long View

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  • Edition: Reprint
  • Format: Trade Paper
  • Copyright: 1996-04-15
  • Publisher: Crown Business

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What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life - bottom-line numbers, for instance - but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories - scenarios - and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

Author Biography

Peter Schwartz is president of Global Business Network, an international think tank and consulting firm in Emeryville, California.

Table of Contents

Introduction to the Paperback Edition: The Strategic Conversation - Broadening The Long View
The Pathfinder's Talep. 3
The Smith and Hawken Story: The Process of Scenario-Buildingp. 16
The Scenario-Building Animalp. 29
Uncovering the Decisionp. 44
Information-Hunting and -Gatheringp. 60
Creating Scenario Building Blocksp. 100
Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenagerp. 118
Composing a Plotp. 135
The World in 2005: Three Scenariosp. 163
Rehearsing the Futurep. 191
Epilogue: To My Newborn Sonp. 211
Afterword: The Value of a Strategic Conversationp. 219
User's Guide: How to Hold a Strategic Conversationp. 227
Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenariosp. 241
Endnotesp. 249
Scenario Planning: Select Bibliographyp. 256
Indexp. 259
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

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