Artificial War : Multiagent-Based Simulation of Combat

by Ilachinski, Andrew

• ISBN13: 9789812388346
• ISBN10: 9812388346
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2004-06-01
• Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Inc

Summary

Military conflicts, particularly land combat, possess all of the key attributes of complex adaptive systems: combat forces are composed of many nonlinearly interacting parts and are organized in a dynamic command-and-control hierarchy; local action, which often appears disordered, self-organizes into long-range order; military conflicts, by their nature, proceed far from equilibrium; military forces adapt to a changing combat environment; and there is no master "voice" that dictates the actions of every soldier (i.e., battlefield action is decentralized). Nonetheless, most modern "state of the art" military simulations ignore the self-organizing properties of combat. This book develops the proposition that combat is more like an interpenetration of two living, coevolving fluids rather than an elastic collision between two hard billiard balls. Artificial-life techniques--specifically, multiagent-based models coupled with evolutionary learning algorithms--provide a powerful new approach to understanding the fundamental processes of war. The book introduces an artificial-life model of combat called EINSTein. Recently developed at the Center for Naval Analyses, USA by the author, EINSTein is one of the first systematic attempts to simulate combat on a small-to-medium scale by using autonomous agents to model individual behaviors and personalities rather than hardware. EINSTein shows that many aspects of land combat may be understood as self-organized, emergent phenomena resulting from the dynamic web of interactions among coevolving agents. Thus, its bottom-up, synthesist approach to modeling combat stands in vivid contrast to the current top-down, reductionist approach taken byconventional models. EINSTein is the first step toward a complex-systems-theoretic toolbox for identifying, exploring, and exploiting self-organized emergent patterns of behavior on the real battlefield.

Table of Contents

Foreword	vii
Preface	xiii
Acknowledgments	xxiii
Chapter 1 Introduction	1	(70)
1.1 Brief History of CNA's Complexity & Combat Research Project	2	(20)
1.1.1 The "Problem"	2	(5)
1.1.2 Applying the "New Sciences" to Warfare	7	(5)
1.1.3 Warfare & Complexity	12	(2)
1.1.4 ISAAC	14	(3)
1.1.5 EINSTein	17	(5)
1.2 Background and Motivations	22	(7)
1.2.1 Lanchester Equations of Combat	22	(3)
1.2.2 Artificial Life	25	(4)
1.3 Models & Simulations: A Heuristic Discussion	29	(10)
1.3.1 Definitions	30	(2)
1.3.2 Connection to Reality	32	(3)
1.3.3 Mathematical Models	35	(1)
1.3.4 Computer Simulations	36	(1)
1.3.5 What Price Complexity?	37	(2)
1.4 Combat Simulation	39	(5)
1.4.1 Modeling and Simulation Master Plan	40	(1)
1.4.2 Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision-Making.	41	(1)
1.4.3 Conventional Simulations	41	(2)
1.4.4 Future of Modeling Technology	43	(1)
1.5 Multiagent-Based Models and Simulations	44	(15)
1.5.1 Autonomous Agents	45	(1)
1.5.2 How is Multiagent-Based Modeling Really Done?	46	(2)
1.5.3 Agent-Based Simulations vs. Traditional Mathematical Models	48	(2)
1.5.4 Multiagent-Based Simulations vs. Traditional AI	50	(1)
1.5.5 Examples of MultiAgent-Based Simulations	51	(2)
1.5.6 Value of Multiagent-Based Simulations	53	(2)
1.5.7 CA-Based & Other EINSTein-Related Combat Models	55	(4)
1.6 EINSTein as an Exemplar of More General Models of Complex Adaptive Systems	59	(6)
1.6.1 Persian Gulf Scenario	60	(1)
1.6.2 SCUDHunt	60	(2)
1.6.3 Social Modeling: Riots and Civil Unrest	62	(1)
1.6.4 General Applications	63	(1)
1.6.5 Universal Patterns of Behavior	64	(1)
1.7 Goals & Payoffs for Developing EINSTein	65	(2)
1.7.1 Command & Control	65	(1)
1.7.2 Pattern Recognition	66	(1)
1.7.3 "What If?" Experimentation	66	(1)
1.7.4 Fundamental Grammar of Combat?	67	(1)
1.8 Toward an Axiological Ontology of Complex Systems	67	(4)
1.8.1 Why "Value"?	67	(1)
1.8.2 Why "Axiological Ontology"?	68	(3)
Chapter 2 Nonlinear Dynamics, Deterministic Chaos and Complex Adaptive Systems: A Primer	71	(88)
2.1 Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos	72	(29)
2.1.1 Brief History	72	(2)
2.1.2 Dynamical Systems	74	(3)
2.1.3 Deterministic Chaos	77	(13)
2.1.4 Qualitative Characterization of Chaos	90	(2)
2.1.5 Quantitative Characterization of Chaos	92	(6)
2.1.6 Time-Series Forecasting and Predictability	98	(2)
2.1.7 Chaotic Control	100	(1)
2.2 Complex Adaptive Systems	101	(58)
2.2.1 References	102	(1)
2.2.2 Short History	103	(2)
2.2.3 General Properties: A Heuristic Discussion	105	(9)
2.2.4 Measures of Complexity	114	(15)
2.2.5 Complexity as Science: Toward a New Worldview?	129	(2)
2.2.6 Artificial Life	131	(6)
2.2.7 Cellular Automata	137	(12)
2.2.8 Self-Organized Criticality	149	(10)
Chapter 3 Nonlinearity, Complexity, and Warfare: Eight Tiers of Applicability	159	(58)
3.1 Approach	160	(2)
3.2 Tier I: General Metaphors for Complexity in War	162	(9)
3.2.1 What is a Metaphor?	162	(2)
3.2.2 Metaphors and War	164	(2)
3.2.3 Metaphor Shift	166	(5)
3.3 Tier II: Policy and General Guidelines for Strategy	171	(4)
3.3.1 What Does the New Metaphor Give Us?	171	(1)
3.3.2 Policy	171	(2)
3.3.3 Organizational Structure	173	(1)
3.3.4 Intelligence Analysis	173	(1)
3.3.5 Policy Exploitation of Characteristic Time Scales of Combat	174	(1)
3.4 Tier III: "Conventional" Warfare Models and Approaches	175	(7)
3.4.1 Testing for the Veracity of Conventional Models	176	(1)
3.4.2 Non-Monoticities and Chaos	177	(1)
3.4.3 Minimalist Modeling	178	(1)
3.4.4 Generalizations of Lanchester's equations	179	(2)
3.4.5 Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Arms-Race Models	181	(1)
3.5 Tier IV: Description of the Complexity of Combat	182	(8)
3.5.1 Attractor Reconstruction from Time-Series Data	182	(1)
3.5.2 Fractals and Combat	183	(1)
3.5.3 Evidence of Chaos in War From Historical Data?	184	(1)
3.5.4 Evidence of Self-Organized Criticality From Historical Data?	185	(1)
3.5.5 Use of Complex Systems Inspired Measures to Describe Combat	186	(3)
3.5.6 Use of Relativistic Information to Describe Command and Control Processes	189	(1)
3.6 Tier V: Combat Technology Enhancement	190	(3)
3.6.1 Computer Viruses ("computer counter-measures")	190	(1)
3.6.2 Fractal Image Compression	190	(2)
3.6.3 Cryptography	192	(1)
3.7 Tier VI: Combat Aids	193	(9)
3.7.1 Using Genetic Algorithms to Evolve Tank Strategies	194	(3)
3.7.2 Tactical Decision Aids	197	(2)
3.7.3 Classifier Systems	199	(1)
3.7.4 How can Genetic Algorithms be Used?	200	(1)
3.7.5 Tactical Picture Agents	201	(1)
3.8 Tier VII: Synthetic Combat Environments	202	(2)
3.8.1 Combat Simulation using Cellular Automata	202	(2)
3.8.2 Multiagent-Based Simulations	204	(1)
3.9 Tier VIII: Original Conceptualizations of Combat	204	(13)
3.9.1 Dueling Parasites	205	(1)
3.9.2 Percolation Theory and Command and Control Processes	206	(1)
3.9.3 Exploiting Chaos	207	(2)
3.9.4 Pattern Recognition	209	(5)
3.9.5 Fire-Ant Warfare	214	(3)
Chapter 4 EINSTein: Mathematical Overview	217	(30)
4.1 Introduction	217	(3)
4.2 Design Philosophy	220	(4)
4.2.1 Agent Hierarchy	221	(1)
4.2.2 Guiding Principles	222	(2)
4.3 Abstract Agent Architecture	224	(53)
4.3.1 Overview	224	(2)
4.3.2 Dynamics of Value	226	(1)
4.3.3 General Formalism	226	(2)
4.3.4 Agents in EINSTein	228	(2)
4.3.5 Actions	230	(4)
4.3.6 Features	234	(2)
4.3.7 Local Context	236	(3)
4.3.8 Example	239	(1)
4.3.9 Ontological Partitioning	239	(1)
4.3.10 Communication	240	(1)
4.3.11 Axiological Ontology	241	(1)
4.3.12 Preventing a Combinatorial Explosion	242	(5)
Color Plates	247	(30)
Chapter 5 EINSTein: Methodology	277	(156)
5.1 Program Structure	277	(4)
5.1.1 Source Code	277	(1)
5.1.2 Object-Oriented	278	(2)
5.1.3 Program Flow	280	(1)
5.2 Combat Engine	281	(31)
5.2.1 Agents	281	(2)
5.2.2 Battlefield	283	(1)
5.2.3 Agent Sensor Parameters	284	(2)
5.2.4 Agent Personalities	286	(1)
5.2.5 Agent Action Selection	287	(11)
5.2.6 Move Decision Logic Flags	298	(1)
5.2.7 Meta-Rules	298	(12)
5.2.8 Decision Logic	310	(1)
5.2.9 Ambiguity Resolution Logic	311	(1)
5.3 Squads	312	(1)
5.3.1 Inter-Squad Weight Matrix	313	(1)
5.4 Combat	313	(21)
5.4.1 As Implemented in Versions 1.0 and Earlier	314	(9)
5.4.2 As Implemented in Versions 1.1 and Later	323	(11)
5.5 Communications	334	(3)
5.5.1 Inter-Squad Communication Weight Matrix	337	(1)
5.6 Terrain	337	(5)
5.6.1 As Implemented in Versions 1.0 and Earlier	338	(2)
5.6.2 As Implemented in Versions 1.1 and Newer	340	(2)
5.7 Finding and Navigating Paths	342	(18)
5.7.1 Pathfinding	343	(5)
5.7.2 Navigating User-Defined Paths	348	(12)
5.8 Command and Control	360	(11)
5.8.1 Local Command	362	(2)
5.8.2 Subordinate Agents	364	(1)
5.8.3 Example	365	(1)
5.8.4 Global Command	365	(6)
Technical Appendix 1: Enhanced Action Selection Logic	371	(9)
Technical Appendix 2: Trigger State Activation	380	(6)
Technical Appendix 3: Find Weights	386	(14)
Technical Appendix 4: Weight Modification via Internal Feature Space	400	(3)
Technical Appendix 5: Action Logic Function (ALF)	403	(5)
Technical Appendix 6: Previsualizing Agent Behaviors	408	(25)
Chapter 6 EINSTein: Sample Behavior	433	(68)
6.1 Overview	433	(5)
6.1.1 Simulation Run Modes	434	(1)
6.1.2 Observations	435	(1)
6.1.3 Classes of Behavior	436	(2)
6.2 Case Study 1: Lanchesterian Combat	438	(3)
6.3 Case Study 2: Classic Battle Front (Tutorial)	441	(12)
6.3.1 Collecting Data	441	(1)
6.3.2 Asking "What If?" Questions	442	(8)
6.3.3 Generating a Fitness Landscape	450	(3)
6.4 Case Study 3: Explosive Skirmish	453	(17)
6.4.1 Agent-Density Plots	454	(1)
6.4.2 Spatial Entropy	454	(3)
6.4.3 Fractal Dimensions and Combat	457	(5)
6.4.4 Attrition Count	462	(4)
6.4.5 Attrition Rate	466	(4)
6.5 Case Study 4: Squad vs. Squad	470	(6)
6.5.1 Background	470	(1)
6.5.2 Scenario Definition	471	(1)
6.5.3 Weapon Scaling	472	(2)
6.5.4 3:1 Force Ratio Rule-of-Thumb	474	(2)
6.6 Case Study 5: Attack	476	(3)
6.7 Case Study 6: Defense	479	(3)
6.8 Case Study 7: Swarms	482	(1)
6.9 Case Study 8: Non-Monotonicity	483	(4)
6.10 Case Study 9: Autopoietic Skirmish	487	(1)
6.11 Case Study 10: Small Insertion	488	(4)
6.12 Case Study #11: Miscellaneous Behaviors	492	(9)
6.12.1 Precessional Maneuver	492	(2)
6.12.2 Random Defense	494	(2)
6.12.3 Communications	496	(1)
6.12.4 Local Command	497	(1)
6.12.5 Global Command	498	(3)
Chapter 7 Breeding Agents	501	(42)
7.1 Background	501	(9)
7.1.1 Genetic Operators	502	(1)
7.1.2 The Fitness Landscape	503	(3)
7.1.3 The Basic GA Recipe	506	(2)
7.1.4 How Do GAs Work?	508	(2)
7.2 GAs Adapted to EINSTein	510	(15)
7.2.1 Mission Fitness Measures	512	(1)
7.2.2 Fitness Function	513	(7)
7.2.3 EINSTein's GA Recipe	520	(1)
7.2.4 EINSTein's GA Search Spaces	521	(4)
7.3 GA Breeding Experiments	525	(18)
7.3.1 Agent "Breeding" Experiment #1 (Tutorial)	525	(9)
7.3.2 Agent "Breeding" Experiment #2	534	(3)
7.3.3 Agent "Breeding" Experiment #3	537	(2)
7.3.4 Agent "Breeding" Experiment #4	539	(4)
Chapter 8 Concluding Remarks & Speculations	543	(18)
8.1 EINSTein	545	(2)
8.2 What Have We Learned?	547	(3)
8.3 Payoffs	550	(1)
8.4 Validation	551	(4)
8.4.1 EINSTein and JANUS	553	(1)
8.4.2 Alignment of Computational models	554	(1)
8.5 Future Work	555	(5)
8.6 Final Comment	560	(1)
Appendix A Additional Resources	561	(8)
A.1 General Sources	561	(1)
A.2 Adaptive Systems	561	(1)
A.3 Agents	562	(1)
A.4 Artificial Intelligence	562	(1)
A.5 Artificial Life	562	(1)
A.6 Cellular Automata	563	(1)
A.7 Chaos	563	(1)
A.8 Complexity	564	(1)
A.9 Conflict & War	564	(1)
A.10 Fuzzy Logic	565	(1)
A.11 Game Programming	565	(1)
A.12 Genetic Algorithms	565	(1)
A.13 Information Visualization	565	(1)
A.14 Machine Learning	566	(1)
A.15 Newsgroups	566	(1)
A.16 Philosophical	566	(1)
A.17 Robotics	567	(1)
A.18 Simulation Systems	567	(1)
A.19 Swarm Intelligence	568	(1)
A.20 Time Series Analysis	568	(1)
Appendix B EINSTein Homepage	569	(4)
B.1 Links	569	(1)
B.2 Screenshots	570	(3)
Appendix C EINSTein Development Tools	573	(2)
Appendix D Installing EINSTein	575	(6)
D.l Versions	575	(1)
D.2 System Requirements	575	(1)
D.3 Installing EINSTein	575	(1)
D.4 Running EINSTein	576	(5)
Appendix E A Concise User's Guide to EINSTein	581	(70)
E.1 File Menu	581	(3)
E.1.1 Load	581	(2)
E.1.2 Save	583	(1)
E.1.3 Exit	584	(1)
E.2 Edit Menu	584	(19)
E.2.1 Combat Parameters	584	(2)
E.2.2 Red Data	586	(12)
E.2.3 Terrain	598	(2)
E.2.4 Territorial Possession	600	(1)
E.2.5 Multiple Time-Series Run Parameters	601	(1)
E.2.6 2-Parameter Fitness Landscape Exploration	602	(1)
E.2.7 1-Sided Genetic Algorithm Parameters	602	(1)
E.3 Simulation Menu	603	(12)
E.3.1 Interactive Run Mode	603	(1)
E.3.2 Play-Back Run Mode	604	(1)
E.3.3 Multiple Time-Series Run Mode	604	(3)
E.3.4 2-Parameter Phase Space Exploration	607	(2)
E.3.5 One-Sided Genetic Algorithm Run Mode	609	(3)
E.3.6 Clear	612	(1)
E.3.7 Run/Stop Toggle	612	(1)
E.3.8 Step-Execute Mode	613	(1)
E.3.9 Step Execute for T Steps	613	(1)
E.3.10 Randomize	613	(1)
E.3.11 Reseed Random Number Generator	613	(1)
E.3.12 Restart	614	(1)
E.3.13 Terminate Run	615	(1)
E.4 Display Menu	615	(11)
E.4.1 Data	616	(2)
E.4.2 Toggle Background Color	618	(1)
E.4.3 Trace Map	618	(1)
E.4.4 Display All Agents (Default)	618	(1)
E.4.5 Display All Agents (Highlight Injured)	619	(1)
E.4.6 Display Alive Agents Alone	619	(1)
E.4.7 Display Injured Agents Alone	619	(1)
E.4.8 Highlight Individual Squad	619	(1)
E.4.9 Highlight Command Structure	620	(1)
E.4.10 Activity Map	621	(1)
E.4.11 Battle-Front Map	622	(1)
E.4.12 Killing Field Map	623	(1)
E.4.13 Territorial Possession Map	624	(2)
E.4.14 Zoom	626	(1)
E.5 On-the-Fly Parameter Changes Menu	626	(2)
E.5.1 EINSTein's On-the-Fly Parameter Changes Menu Options	627	(1)
E.6 Data Collection Menu	628	(3)
E.6.1 Toggle Data Collection On/Off	628	(1)
E.6.2 Set All	628	(1)
E.6.3 Capacity Dimension	628	(1)
E.6.4 Force Sizes	629	(1)
E.6.5 Center-of-Mass Positions	629	(1)
E.6.6 Cluster-Size Distributions	629	(1)
E.6.7 Goal Count	629	(1)
E.6.8 Interpoint Distance Distributions	629	(1)
E.6.9 Neighbor-Number Distributions	630	(1)
E.6.10 Spatial Entropy	630	(1)
E.6.11 Territorial Possession	630	(1)
E.6.12 Mission-Fitness Landscape (2-Parameter)	630	(1)
E.6.13 Calculate Capacity Dimension (Snapshot at time t)	631	(1)
E.7 Data Visualization Menu	631	(14)
E.7.1 2D Graphs	632	(11)
E.7.2 3D Graphs	643	(2)
E.8 Help Menu	645	(2)
E.8.1 Help Topics	645	(1)
E.8.2 About EINSTein	646	(1)
E.9 Toolbar	647	(4)
E.9.1 Toolbar Reference	647	(4)
Appendix F Differences Between EINSTein Versions 1.0 (and older) and 1.1 (and newer)	651	(12)
F.1 Toolbar and Main Menu	651	(1)
F.2 Main Menu Edit Options and Dialogs	651	(12)
F.2.1 Agent Parameters	652	(2)
F.2.2 Edit Terrain Type	654	(1)
F.2.3 Combat-Related Dialogs	655	(1)
F.2.4 Main Menu Simulation Pptions/Dialogs	656	(1)
F.2.5 Main Menu Display Options	657	(1)
F.2.6 Right-Hand Mouse Action	658	(5)
Appendix G EINSTein's Data Files	663	(48)
G.1 Versions 1.0 and Earlier	663	(44)
G.1.1 Input Data File	664	(25)
G.1.2 Combat Agent Input Data File	689	(1)
G.1.3 Run-File	690	(1)
G.1.4 Terrain Input Data File	690	(1)
G.1.5 Terrain-Modified Agent Parameters Input Data File	691	(1)
G.1.6 Weapons Input Data File	692	(1)
G.1.7 Two-Parameter Fitness Landscape Input Data File	693	(4)
G.1.8 One-Sided Genetic Algorithm Input Data File	697	(3)
G.1.9 Communications Matrix Input Data File	700	(1)
G.1.10 Squad Interconnectivity Matrix Input Data File	701	(1)
G.1.11 Output Data Files	701	(6)
G.2 Versions 1.1 and Newer	707	(4)
Bibliography	711	(30)
Index	741