Banking on Democracy

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  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2013-06-14
  • Publisher: Mit Pr
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Politics matter for financial markets and financial markets matter for politics, andnowhere is this relationship more apparent than in emerging markets. In Banking onDemocracy, Javier Santiso investigates the links between politics and finance in countriesthat have recently experienced both economic and democratic transitions. He focuses on elections,investigating whether there is a "democratic premium" -- whether financial markets andinvestors tend to react positively to elections in emerging markets. Santisodevotes special attention to Latin America, where over the last three decades many countries becamedemocracies, with regular elections, just as they also became open economies dependent on foreigncapital and dominated bond markets. Santiso's analysis draws on a unique set of primary databases(developed during his years at the OECD Development Centre) covering an entire decade: more than5,000 bank and fund manager portfolio recommendations on emerging markets. Santisoexamines the trajectory of Brazil, for example, through its presidential elections of 2002, 2006,and 2010 and finds a decoupling of financial and political cycles that occurred also in many otheremerging economies. He charts this evolution through the behavior of brokers, analysts, fundmanagers, and bankers. Ironically, Santiso points out, while some emerging markets have decoupledpolitics and finance, in the wake of the 2008--2012 financial crisis many developed economies(Europe and the United States) have experienced a recoupling between finance and politics.

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