Causes of War

by Van Evera, Stephen

• ISBN13: 9780801432019
• ISBN10: 0801432014
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-07-01
• Publisher: Cornell Univ Pr

Summary

Stephen Van Evera frames five conditions that increase the risk of interstate false optimism about the likely outcome of a war, a fast-strike advantage, fluctuation in the relative power of states, circumstances that allow nations to parlay one conquest into another, and circumstances that make conquest easy. According to Van Evera, all but one of these conditions -- false optimism -- rarely occur today, but policymakers often erroneously believe in their existence. He argues that these misperceptions are responsible for many modern wars, and explores both World Wars, the Korean War, and the 1967 Mideast War as test cases. Finally, he assesses the possibility of nuclear war by applying all five hypotheses to its potential onset Van Evera's book demonstrates that ideas from the Realist paradigm can offer strong explanations for international conflict and valuable prescriptions for its control.

Author Biography

Stephen Van Evera is Associate Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of the MIT Security Studies Program. He is the author of Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science, also from Cornell.

Table of Contents

Tables and Diagrams	vii
Acknowledgments	viii
Introduction	1	(13)
Questions Addressed, Why They Arise	1	(3)
Arguments Advanced, Answers Offered	4	(3)
Implications for Realism	7	(4)
Methods	11	(2)
Plan of the Book	13	(1)
False Optimism: Illusions of the Coming War	14	(21)
False Hope and War	14	(2)
Illusions of Victory	16	(14)
Illusions of Cheap War	30	(4)
To Prevent War, Promote Transparency	34	(1)
Jumping the Gun: First-Move Advantages and Crisis Instability	35	(38)
First-Strike, First-Mobilization, and First-Move Advantages	37	(2)
Hypotheses on the Effects of First-Move Advantages	39	(14)
Tests of Stability Theory	53	(16)
Causes of and Cures for First-Move Advantage	69	(4)
Power Shifts: Windows of Opportunity and Vulnerability	73	(32)
Types of Windows	74	(1)
Hypotheses on the Effects of Windows	75	(12)
Tests of Window Theory	87	(16)
Causes and Cures of Windows	103	(2)
Cumulative Resources	105	(12)
What Is Cumulativity?	105	(3)
Cumulativity and Conflict	108	(2)
Types of Cumulativity	110	(2)
Beliefs about Cumulativity and Their Implications	112	(2)
The Future of Cumulativity	114	(3)
Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma	117	(76)
Hypotheses on the Effects of Offense Dominance	123	(29)
Qualifications: When Offensive Doctrines and Capabilities Cause Peace	152	(8)
Causes of Offense and Defense Dominance	160	(6)
Predictions and Tests of Offense-Defense Theory	166	(19)
How Much History Can Offense-Defense Theory Explain?	185	(5)
Offense-Defense Theory in Perspective	190	(3)
Offense-Defense Theory and the Outbreak of World War I	193	(47)
The Rise of the Cult of the Offensive, 1890--1914	194	(5)
Predictions of Offense-Defense Theory about Europe, 1890--1914	199	(3)
Evidence on Offense-Defense Theory, 1890--1914	202	(31)
Offense-Defense Theory and the Test of 1914	233	(3)
Explaining World War I	236	(4)
The Nuclear Revolution and the Causes of War	240	(15)
MAD among Deterrable States	243	(4)
MAD among Nondeterrable States; MAD among Many States	247	(3)
Alternatives to MAD: MARNE, BAD, WORSE, and USA	250	(3)
The Janus-Faced Revolution	253	(2)
Conclusion	255	(4)
Appendix: Hypotheses on Power and the Causes of War	259	(4)
Index	263