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| List of maps | p. ix |
| List of tables | p. x |
| Acknowledgments | p. xi |
| The Climate Change War | p. 1 |
| Climate change will do more than just raise the temperature | p. 3 |
| The expanding Equatorial Tension Belt and the emerging Polar Tension Belt | p. 7 |
| Hot Wars and Cold Wars | p. 14 |
| Optimists and pessimists, realists and idealists | p. 16 |
| A brief history of climate change and conflict | p. 24 |
| Holocene Warming Period | p. 25 |
| Medieval Climate Optimum | p. 34 |
| Little Ice Age | p. 43 |
| Anthropogene Warming Period | p. 51 |
| The evolving role of climate change and conflict in history | p. 60 |
| Climate change and conflict trends | p. 66 |
| The evidence for and forecasts of climate change | p. 67 |
| Extrapolating conflict trends | p. 82 |
| Regions for future climate change and conflict | p. 94 |
| Climate change, conflict regions, and lessons | p. 115 |
| Scenarios of climate change and conflict | p. 117 |
| Scenarios of climate change and conflict | p. 117 |
| Comparing future cases | p. 146 |
| Climate change, conflict, and political choices | p. 148 |
| The politics and geopolitics of climate change and conflict | p. 148 |
| Learning to live with climate change and conflict | p. 160 |
| Five conclusions | p. 165 |
| Bibliography | p. 171 |
| Index | p. 178 |
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