Coping With a Nuclearizing Iran

by Dobbins, James; Nader, Alireza; Kaye, Dalia Dassa; Wehrey, Frederic

• ISBN13: 9780833058652
• ISBN10: 0833058657
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-12-12
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Some time in the coming decade, Iran will probably acquire nuclear weapons or the capacity to quickly produce them. This monograph provides a midterm strategy for dealing with Iran that neither begins nor ends at the point at which Tehran acquires a nuclear weapon capability. It proposes an approach that neither acquiesces to a nuclear-armed Iran nor refuses to admit the possibility, indeed, the likelihood of this occurring.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Summary	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xxiii
Abbreviations	p. xxv
Introduction	p. 1
U.S. Interests, Objectives, and Strategies	p. 3
Long History of Mutual Grievances	p. 4
Ups and Downs in the Relationship	p. 6
Iran's Interests, Objectives, and Strategies	p. 9
Iranian Views of the United States	p. 11
Iranian Factional Interests	p. 12
Ideological Opposition to the United States	p. 16
The Revolutionary Guards	p. 20
Iran's Future Nuclear Posture	p. 24
Conclusion	p. 27
The Other Actors	p. 29
The Gulf Cooperation Council States	p. 30
Key Areas of U.S. Leverage	p. 39
Israel	p. 42
Halting Iran's Nuclear Capabilities	p. 42
Constraining Iran's Regional Influence	p. 44
Influencing Iran's Internal Political Evolution	p. 44
Turkey	p. 50
Syria	p. 56
Iraq	p. 59
China	p. 61
Russia	p. 63
Europe	p. 66
Conclusion	p. 68
U.S. Instruments and Iranian Vulnerabilities	p. 71
Diplomacy	p. 71
Third-Party Intermediaries	p. 72
Multilateral Diplomacy	p. 74
Direct U.S.-Iranian Dialogue	p. 75
Iran's Political System and U.S. Diplomacy	p. 78
Sanctions	p. 79
Covert Action	p. 84
Soft Power	p. 86
The Military Option	p. 89
Halting Iran's Nuclear Program	p. 90
Moderating Iranian External Behavior	p. 90
Influencing Iran's Internal Evolution	p. 91
Conclusion	p. 91
Policy Alternatives	p. 93
Engagement	p. 94
Containment	p. 95
Preemption	p. 96
Deterrence	p. 97
Normalization	p. 98
Regime Change	p. 99
Conclusion	p. 99
Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran	p. 101
Containment Plus	p. 103
Deterrence	p. 104
Sanctions	p. 106
Engagement	p. 107
Soft Power	p. 108
Bibliography	p. 111
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