Dissuading Terror Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism

by Cragin, Kim

• ISBN13: 9780833037046
• ISBN10: 0833037048
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-03-28
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Analyzes past U.S. strategic influence campaigns and looks at how and in what circumstances such campaigns can best be applied to today's struggle against terrorism.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Summary	ix
Acknowledgments	xv
Abbreviations	xvii
CHAPTER ONE Introduction	1	(12)
Animosity Toward the United States	2	(1)
Support for Radical Islam	3	(2)
Violence as a Means of Political Activism	5	(2)
Scope and Methodology	7	(3)
Report Structure	10	(3)
CHAPTER TWO The Theoretical Underpinnings of Strategic Influence	13	(14)
The Psychological Objectives of Persuasion	14	(7)
Compliance	15	(2)
Conformity	17	(2)
Conversion	19	(1)
Observations	20	(1)
The Necessary Sequence of Events and Timing	21	(4)
Observations	24	(1)
Key Judgments	25	(2)
CHAPTER THREE Theory into Practice: What Influence Can Hope to Achieve	27	(14)
Instruments and Methods of Influence	27	(8)
Germany, Post-World War 11	28	(2)
Vietnam, 1963-1972	30	(2)
Eastern Europe, 1980's Polish Underground	32	(1)
Alternative Methods of Influence	33	(2)
Performance Measures	35	(2)
The Dangers of Failure	37	(1)
Key Judgments	38	(3)
CHAPTER FOUR Potential Audiences in the Muslim World	41	(20)
Yemen	41	(6)
Germany	47	(5)
Indonesia	52	(6)
Key Judgments	58	(3)
CHAPTER FIVE Implications for the Struggle Against Terrorism	61	(8)
Guiding Principles	62	(1)
Translating the Principles into Policy	63	(3)
Multiple al Qaeda-Affiliated Groups in Societies Hostile to Outsiders	63	(2)
Isolated al Qaeda Cells in Western Societies	65	(1)
Multiple Terrorist Groups with an Indigenous Countermovement	65	(1)
Potential Risks and Mitigating Strategies	66	(3)
CHAPER SIX New Challenges Ahead	69	(4)
APPENDIX
A. The Military Perspective on Strategic Influence	73	(8)
B. Strategic Influence in Action: Advertising and Marketing	81	(4)
Bibliography	85