The Dynamic Terrorist Threat An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World

by Cragin, Kim

• ISBN13: 9780833034946
• ISBN10: 0833034944
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-03-29
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Analyzes the motivations and capabililties of terrorist organizations and prioritizes the threat these groups pose to the United States.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xvii
Abbreviations	xix
Chapter One INTRODUCTION	1	(6)
Background	1	(1)
Methodology	2	(5)
Chapter Two ASSESSING TERRORIST THREATS	7	(18)
Building the Framework	7	(11)
Indicators of Terrorists' Intentions	9	(3)
Indicators of Terrorist Capabilities	12	(6)
Applying the Framework	18	(7)
Chapter Three TERRORIST GROUPS' CAPABILITIES	25	(36)
Hypothesizing Terrorist Tools	25	(4)
Organizational Tools	29	(10)
Ideology	29	(3)
Leadership	32	(2)
Recruitment Pools	34	(3)
Publicity	37	(2)
Observations on Organizational Tools	39	(1)
Operational Tools	39	(22)
Command and Control	40	(2)
Weapons	42	(3)
Operational Space	45	(2)
Operational Security	47	(1)
Training	48	(2)
Intelligence	50	(4)
Money	54	(3)
Observations on Operational Tools	57	(4)
Chapter Four TERRORIST GROUPS AS DYNAMIC ENTITIES	61	(24)
Shining Path	62	(5)
Observations	66	(1)
Hizballah	67	(5)
Observations	71	(1)
Egyptian Islamic Jihad	72	(5)
Observations	75	(2)
Abu Sayyaf Group	77	(3)
Observations	80	(5)
Rising Up and Falling Down: Terrorist Groups in Transition	81	(4)
Chapter Five CONCLUSION	85	(4)
Appendix TRENDS IN TERRORIST ATTACKS	89	(4)
Bibliography	93