Ending F22A Production Costs and Industrial Base Implications of Alternative Options 2009

by Younossi, Obaid; Brancato, Kevin; Graser, John C.; Light, Thomas; Rudavsky, Rena

• ISBN13: 9780833046499
• ISBN10: 0833046497
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-02-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

In April 2009, the Department of Defense decided to terminate production of the F-22A Raptor and close the production line after the last aircraft delivery In advance of the decision, the Air Force asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to identify the costs and implications of various shutdown options on the industrial base.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xix
Abbreviations	p. xxi
Introduction	p. 1
Background	p. 1
Characteristics of the F-22A	p. 1
History of the F-22A Program	p. 1
Aircraft Production	p. 2
Procurement History	p. 2
Purpose of This Monograph	p. 3
Shutdown	p. 3
Shutdown and Restart	p. 4
Warm Production	p. 4
Continued Production	p. 5
Our Research Methodology	p. 5
Research Factors	p. 6
Organization of the Monograph	p. 7
Shutdown and Restart Cost Estimates	p. 9
Types of Cost and Profit	p. 10
Activities Are Tied to Production Profiles	p. 11
Types of Activities	p. 11
Shutting Down and Restarting the Production Line	p. 13
Termination	p. 14
Hiatus	p. 21
Restart	p. 25
Summary	p. 31
Production Cost Estimate	p. 33
Airframe Contractors Target Price Curve and Propulsion Costs	p. 33
Overview of TPC and Propulsion Model	p. 34
Effects of Changing Annual Procurement Rate	p. 35
Selecting the Portion of the Original Curve	p. 36
Effects of Restarting the Production Line	p. 37
Tail-Up and Last-Lot Rate Effects	p. 39
Results of the Production Model	p. 39
Munitions, Support, Sustainment, Spares, and Logistics	p. 41
PALS	p. 43
Airframe Nonrecurring	p. 43
Engine Nonrecurring	p. 43
PSAS (PSS and PSP)	p. 43
PSO	p. 44
OGC	p. 44
Engine Support	p. 44
Useful Loads	p. 45
Costs Incurred During Hiatus or After Termination	p. 47
Extending the Forecast	p. 49
Summary	p. 52
Sustainment, Modernization, Technical Data Package, and Contract Closeout	p. 55
Sustainment	p. 55
Modernization	p. 59
Technical Data Package	p. 61
Contract Closeout	p. 63
Summary	p. 65
The Effect of the Production Gap on Vendors	p. 67
The Vendor Assessment Survey	p. 67
Sampling Approach	p. 68
Caveats	p. 69
The F-22A Industrial Base	p. 69
F-22A Vendor Participation with the F-35 Program	p. 71
Assessment of Supplier Effects from a Production Gap	p. 72
Vendor Issues Caused by a Production Gap	p. 73
Vendor Requalification	p. 74
Conclusion	p. 75
Summary and Policy Options for the Air Force	p. 77
Cost Estimates	p. 77
Options for the Air Force	p. 78
Shutdown	p. 78
Shutdown and Restart	p. 78
Warm Production	p. 79
Continued Production	p. 79
Sustainment and Modernization Program	p. 79
Technical Data Package and Contract Closeout	p. 80
Industrial Base Implications	p. 80
Appendixes
Vendor Assessments	p. 83
Previous RAND Research on Shutdown and Restart	p. 89
Original and Restart Learning Curve Slopes	p. 93
Bibliography	p. 95
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