A Framework for Strategy Development

by McGinn, John G.; Treverton, Gregory F.; Isaacson, Jeffrey A.; Gompert, David C.; Bunn, Elaine M.

• ISBN13: 9780833031358
• ISBN10: 083303135X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2002-05-07
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

This report contains the results of a study designed to assist the Department of Defense in its efforts to refine the defense strategy in light of recent experiences and to address expectations about future challenges to U.S. national security. The framework model presented in this report provides a space in which decisionmakers can display strategic options and their inherent tradeoffs, debate the merits of those competing choices, and then decide on a specific strategy.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	ix
Tables	xi
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xxix
Acronyms	xxxi
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION	1	(1)
Trends in Defense Spending	2	(2)
The Strategy-Resource Disconnect	4	(2)
Difficulties in Mapping Strategy to Budget	6	(3)
Building a Framework to Develop Strategy for U.S. Forces	9	(4)
Chapter Two
ARTICULATING STRATEGIC THEMES	13	(1)
Ambitious Shaping	13	(1)
Countering Rogues	14	(1)
Protecting the Homeland	15	(1)
Countering New Dangers	15	(1)
Preparing for China	16	(1)
Policing Instability	17	(2)
Chapter Three
LINKING THEMES TO FORCE POSTURES AND CAPABILITIES	19	(1)
Defining the Force Postures	20	(1)
Traditionally Configured Combat Forces	20	(1)
Expeditionary Forces	20	(1)
Forces-After-Next Focus	21	(1)
Defining the Special Capability Packages	21	(5)
Conducting Stability Operations	24	(1)
Conducting Missile Defense	24	(1)
Countering WMD	24	(1)
Countering Transnational Threats	24	(1)
Conducting Information Operations	25	(1)
Conducting Environment Shaping	25	(1)
Conducting Nontraditional Missions	25	(1)
Assessing the Relative Importance of Postures and Capabilities	26	(1)
Assessing Postures and Capabilities for the Ambitious Shaping Theme	26	(2)
Assessing Postures and Capabilities for the Countering Rogues Theme	28	(1)
Assessing Postures and Capabilities for the Protecting the Homeland Theme	29	(1)
Assessing Postures and Capabilities for the Countering New Dangers Theme	29	(1)
Assessing Postures and Capabilities for the Preparing for China Theme	30	(1)
Assessing Postures and Capabilities for the Policing Instability Theme	30	(1)
Intermediate Observations	31	(2)
Chapter Four
FORMING STRATEGIC CONSTRUCTS	33	(1)
Developing the Constructs	33	(1)
Components of the Focus on Key Responsibilities Construct	34	(1)
Components of the U.S. Multilateral Leadership Construct	35	(1)
Components of the Protecting an Essential Core Construct	36	(1)
Building Provisional Constructs by Rating Force Postures and Capability Packages	37	(1)
The Focus on Key Responsibilities Provisional Construct	38	(1)
The U.S. Multilateral Leadership Provisional Construct	39	(1)
The Protecting an Essential Core Provisional Construct	40	(1)
Assessing the Provisional Constructs	40	(1)
Chapter Five
TESTING THE CONSTRUCTS AGAINST THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT	41	(1)
Using Drivers, Not Point Predictions or Scenarios, as Metrics	41	(2)
Categorizing the Ten Drivers	43	(1)
Drivers Within a Global Context	43	(2)
Drivers Related to U.S. Capacity	45	(1)
Drivers Related to Threats Against the United States and Its Allies	45	(1)
Assumptions Inherent in the Strategic Themes	46	(1)
Assumptions Inherent in Ambitious Shaping	47	(2)
Assumptions Inherent in Countering Rogues	49	(1)
Assumptions Inherent in Protecting the Homeland	50	(1)
Assumptions Inherent in Countering New Dangers	50	(1)
Assumptions Inherent in Preparing for China	51	(2)
Assumptions Inherent in Policing Instability	53	(1)
Vulnerable Assumptions	54	(3)
Chapter Six
REFINING THE CONSTRUCTS	57	(1)
Identifying Possible Hedges Against Vulnerabilities	58	(1)
Refining the Focus on Key Responsibilities Construct	58	(1)
Refining the U.S. Multilateral Leadership Construct	59	(1)
Refining the Protecting an Essential Core Construct	60	(2)
Building Illustrative Portfolios	62	(3)
Chapter Seven
APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK	65	(4)
Bibliography	69