How Terrorism Ends

by Cronin, Audrey Kurth

• ISBN13: 9780691152394
• ISBN10: 069115239X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-08-08
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr

Summary

Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. InHow Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda.This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear? Examining a wide range of historical examples--including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups--Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion.How Terrorism Endsis the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism--at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical.

Author Biography

Audrey Kurth Cronin is professor of strategy at the U.S. National War College in Washington, DC, and senior associate in the Changing Character of War program at the University of Oxford. She is the author of Ending Terrorism: Lessons for Defeating al-Qaeda and the coauthor of Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. xi
Abbreviations	p. xv
Introduction	p. 1
The Evolution of Terrorism as a Strategic Threat	p. 3
A Word About Scope and Terms	p. 6
The Conceptual Framework	p. 7
Case Selection	p. 8
Overview of Chapters	p. 9
Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leader	p. 14
what decapitation Means	p. 16
The Arrest of Top Leaders	p. 17
Abimael Guzman and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)	p. 18
Abdullah Ocalan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party	p. 20
Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Army	p. 22
Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyo	p. 23
Assassination or "Targeted Killing"	p. 24
The Philippines' Abu Sayyaf	p. 27
Russia and Chechen Leaders	p. 28
Israel's "Targeted Killings"	p. 29
How Decapitation Ends Terrorism	p. 31
Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Process	p. 35
why Government Negotiate	p. 36
Why Groups Negotiate	p. 39
Case Studies of Negotiations	p. 42
The Northern Ireland Peace Process	p. 42
Analysis of the Agreement	p. 47
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process	p. 48
Terrorism and the Talks	p. 55
The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers)	p. 57
Analysis of the Failure	p. 61
Promising and Unpromising Circumstances for Negotiation	p. 62
Stalemate	p. 63
Strong Leadership	p. 64
Sponsors	p. 65
Suicide Campaigns	p. 66
Splintering	p. 67
Spoilers	p. 69
Setting and Story	p. 70
How Negotiations End Terrorism	p. 71
Success: Achieving the Objective	p. 73
What Does "Success" Mean?	p. 74
Survival	p. 75
Achievement of Objectives	p. 77
Perpetuating Terrorism: Tactical or "Process" Goals	p. 77
Ending Terrorism: Strategic or"Outcome" Goals	p. 80
Cases of Success	p. 82
Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL)	p. 82
The African National Congress and Umkhonto	p. 85
Other Notable Cases	p. 89
How Success Ends Terrorism	p. 91
Conclusion	p. 92
Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalized	p. 94
Implosion: Mistakes, Burnout, and Collapse	p. 95
Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generation	p. 95
Generational Patterns: Left-Wing Groups In The 1970S	p. 97
Generational Patterns: Right-Wing Groups In The 1990S	p. 98
Infighting and Fractionalization	p. 100
Loss of Operational Control	p. 102
Accepting an Exit	p. 103
Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Support	p. 104
The Ideology Becomes Irrelevant	p. 105
Loss of Contact with "the People"	p. 107
Targeting Errors and Backlash	p. 108
How Failure Ends Terrorism	p. 110
Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Force	p. 115
Analyzing The Strategies of Terrorism	p. 117
Case Studies of Repression	p. 122
Russia and Narodnaya Volya	p. 123
Peru and Sendero Luminoso	p. 125
Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party	p. 128
Uruguay and the Tupamaros	p. 129
Russia and Chechnya	p. 131
Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966	p. 137
How Repression Ends Terrorism	p. 141
Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandi	p. 146
Criminality and Terrorism	p. 148
Colombia and the FARC	p. 149
The Philippines and Abu Sayyaf	p. 152
Insurgency and Terrorism	p. 153
Algeria and the G1A	p. 155
Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major War	p. 157
India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groups	p. 159
Outdates Paradigms, Practical Implications	p. 162
How War Ends Terrorism	p. 166
How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of History	p. 167
Is Al-Qaeda Unique?	p. 168
Resilient Structure	p. 169
Methods of Radicalization and Recruitment	p. 171
Means of Support	p. 174
Means of Communication	p. 175
The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda: Applying the Framework	p. 177
Decapitation:Capturing or Killing the Leaders	p. 177
Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associates	p. 179
Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectives	p. 182
Failure through Implosion	p. 183
Failure through Diminishment of Popular Support	p. 187
Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Force	p. 190
Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Means	p. 191
Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demise	p. 193
Conclusion	p. 197
Understanding How Terrorism Ends	p. 201
Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns	p. 207
Notes	p. 223
Selected Bibliography	p. 283
Index	p. 297
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