Interpreting China's Grand Strategy Past, Present, and Future

by Swaine, Michael D.; Tellis, Ashley J.

• ISBN13: 9780833027672
• ISBN10: 0833027670
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-03-21
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

RAND Asian experts Swaine and Tellis have chosen one of the most significant, controversial, and timely subjects, breaking new ground conceptually as well as analytically.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Maps	vii
Figures	vii
Table	vii
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xv
Acronyms	xvii
Chronology of Chinese History	xix
China as a National Security Concern	1	(8)
China's Security Problem	9	(12)
The Historical Context	21	(76)
Border Defense and Periphery Control	22	(11)
Fluctuations in Periphery Control and Regime Boundaries	33	(12)
The Use of Force	45	(20)
The Use of Noncoercive Security Strategies	65	(14)
The Influence of Domestic Leadership Politics	79	(18)
China's Current Security Strategy: Features and Implications	97	(54)
Factors Shaping China's Calculative Security Strategy	98	(14)
The Benefits and Challenges of Economic and Technological Reform	98	(2)
Changing Capabilities and Orientations of Periphery Powers	100	(2)
Exponential Growth in the Capabilities of Industrial Powers	102	(2)
Growing Domestic Social and Political Challanges	104	(1)
The Emergence of a More Pragmatic Program of Military Modernization	105	(2)
The Rise of More Institutionalized, Pragmatic Forms of Authority and Governance	107	(3)
Lowered External Threats	110	(2)
The Major Guiding Tenets and Policies of China's Calculative Security Strategy	112	(29)
Policies Toward the United States and Other Major Powers	114	(7)
Policies Toward Military Modernization	121	(8)
Policies Toward Territorial Claims and the Recourse to Force	129	(4)
Policies Toward International Regimes	133	(8)
Benefits and Risks	141	(10)
China Faces the Future: The Far Term	151	(80)
Assessing the ``Natural'' Longevity of the Calculative Strategy	152	(30)
Beyond the Calculative Strategy	182	(49)
The Irony of Success: A Chaotic China?	183	(4)
The Triumph of Reason: A Cooperative China?	187	(10)
The Tyranny of Power: An Assertive China?	197	(34)
Conclusions	231	(12)
Bibliography	243	(30)
Index	273