Introduction to Management Science

by Taylor, Bernard W.

• ISBN13: 9780131888098
• ISBN10: 0131888099
• Edition: 9th
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2010-01-01
• Publisher: Pearson College Div

Summary

The objective of this management science book is to help the reader solve the decision-making problems that confront managers in both the public and private sectors. It demonstrates the use of mathematical models to solve these problems, and provides numerous examples and illustrations to help the reader easily understand the material presented. Its concentration on computer solutions with Excel spreadsheets allows the reader to focus on the newest technological tools. Topics covered in this comprehensive book are linear programming; integer programming; transportation, transshipment, and assignment problems; network flow models; project management; nonlinear programming; probability and statistics; decision analysis; queuing analysis; simulation; forecasting; and inventory management. With its comprehensive appendices and CD-ROM module examples, this book is an excellent reference work for managers that utilize modeling techniques to solve problems and make decisions.

Table of Contents

Preface	xiii
Management Science	1	(28)
The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving	2	(5)
Time Out: for Pioneers in Management Science	5	(1)
Management Science Application: Management Science at Taco Bell	6	(1)
Model Building: Break-Even Analysis	7	(5)
Computer Solution	12	(4)
Management Science Modeling Techniques	16	(2)
Business Usage of Management Science Techniques	18	(2)
Management Science Application: Management Science at FedEx	19	(1)
Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems	20	(9)
Management Science Application: A Decision Support System for Aluminum Can Production at Coors	22	(1)
Summary	22	(1)
References	23	(1)
Problems	23	(4)
Case Problems	27	(2)
Linear Programming: Model Formulation and Graphical Solution	29	(42)
Model Formulation	30	(1)
A Maximization Model Example	30	(4)
Time Out: for George B. Dantzig	31	(3)
Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models	34	(13)
Management Science Application: Operational Cost Control at Kellogg	35	(11)
Management Science Application: Estimating Food Nutrient Values at Minnesota's Nutrition Coordinating Center	46	(1)
A Minimization Model Example	47	(6)
Management Science Application: Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes at Soquimich (South America)	51	(2)
Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems	53	(2)
Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems	55	(16)
Summary	57	(1)
References	57	(1)
Example Problem Solutions	57	(4)
Problems	61	(8)
Case Problems	69	(2)
Linear Programming: Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis	71	(39)
Computer Solution	72	(7)
Management Science Application: Optimizing Production Quantities at GE Plastics	76	(3)
Sensitivity Analysis	79	(31)
Management Science Application: Grape Juice Management at Welch's	82	(10)
Summary	92	(1)
References	92	(1)
Example Problem Solution	93	(2)
Problems	95	(12)
Case Problems	107	(3)
Linear Programming: Modeling Examples	110	(70)
A Product Mix Example	111	(5)
A Diet Example	116	(3)
An Investment Example	119	(6)
Management Science Application: The Evolution of the Diet Problem	120	(4)
Management Science Application: A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at Prudential Securities, Inc.	124	(1)
A Marketing Example	125	(4)
A Transportation Example	129	(3)
A Blend Example	132	(3)
A Multiperiod Scheduling Example	135	(5)
Management Science Application: Gasoline Blending at Texaco	137	(3)
A Data Envelopment Analysis Example	140	(40)
Management Science Application: Analyzing Bank Branch Efficiency by Using DEA	141	(3)
Summary	144	(1)
References	145	(1)
Example Problem Solution	145	(2)
Problems	147	(29)
Case Problems	176	(4)
Integer Programming	180	(42)
Integer Programming Models	181	(4)
Management Science Application: Allocating Operating Room Time at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital	184	(1)
Integer Programming Graphical Solution	185	(2)
Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows	187	(7)
Time Out: for Ralph E. Gomory	188	(2)
Management Science Application: College of Business Class Scheduling at Ohio University	190	(4)
0-1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples	194	(28)
Management Science Application: Optimal Assignment of Gymnasts to Events	194	(6)
Management Science Application: Managing Prototype Vehicle Test Fleets at Ford	200	(2)
Management Science Application: Planning Next-Day Air Shipments at UPS	202	(1)
Summary	203	(1)
References	203	(1)
Example Problem Solution	203	(1)
Problems	204	(12)
Case Problems	216	(6)
Transportation, Transshipment, and Assignment Problems	222	(50)
The Transportation Model	223	(3)
Time Out: for Frank L. Hitchcock and Tjalling C. Koopmans	225	(1)
Management Science Application: Transportation Models at Nu-kote International	226	(1)
Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem	226	(4)
The Transshipment Model	230	(4)
The Assignment Model	234	(1)
Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem	235	(37)
Management Science Application: Assigning Managers to Construction Projects	238	(1)
Summary	238	(1)
References	239	(1)
Example Problem Solution	239	(1)
Problems	240	(26)
Case Problems	266	(6)
Network Flow Models	272	(48)
Network Components	273	(1)
The Shortest Route Problem	274	(7)
The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem	281	(5)
Management Science Application: Reducing Travel Costs at the Defense Contract Management Agency	282	(4)
The Maximal Flow Problem	286	(34)
Time Out: for E. W. Dijkstra, L. R. Ford, Jr., and D. R. Fulkerson	287	(1)
Management Science Application: Improving Service for Yellow Freight System's Terminal Network	288	(4)
Summary	292	(1)
References	293	(1)
Example Problem Solution	293	(2)
Problems	295	(19)
Case Problems	314	(6)
Project Management	320	(69)
The Elements of Project Management	321	(8)
Time Out: Henry Gantt	326	(2)
Management Science Application: Project ``Magic'' at Disney Imagineering	328	(1)
CPM/PERT	329	(9)
Time Out: for Morgan R. Walker, James E. Kelley, Jr., and D. G. Malcolm	330	(8)
Probabilistic Activity Times	338	(7)
Management Science Application: The 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City	344	(1)
Microsoft Project	345	(6)
Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-off	351	(6)
Management Science Application: Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11	356	(1)
Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Proramming Model	357	(32)
Summary	364	(1)
References	364	(1)
Example Problem Solution	365	(2)
Problems	367	(19)
Case Problems	386	(3)
Multicriteria Decision Making	389	(62)
Goal Programming	390	(4)
Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming	394	(3)
Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM for Windows and Excel	397	(7)
Management Science Application: Developing Television Advertising Sales Plans at NBC	398	(3)
Time Out: for Abraham Charnes and William W. Cooper	401	(3)
The Analytical Hierarchy Process	404	(12)
Management Science Application: Selecting Students for Graduate Studies Abroad at Dar Al-Hekma Women's College	405	(6)
Management Science Application: Analyzing Advanced-Technology Projects at NASA	411	(3)
Management Science Application: Selecting a Site for a New Ice Hockey Arena by Using AHP	414	(2)
Scoring Models	416	(35)
Summary	418	(1)
References	418	(1)
Example Problem Solutions	418	(4)
Problems	422	(25)
Case Problems	447	(4)
Nonlinear Programming	451	(25)
Nonlinear Profit Analysis	452	(3)
Constrained Optimization	455	(3)
Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel	458	(3)
A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints	461	(2)
Nonlinear Model Examples	463	(13)
Management Science Application: Gas Production in Australia	466	(2)
Summary	468	(1)
References	469	(1)
Example Problem Solution	469	(1)
Problems	469	(5)
Case Problems	474	(2)
Probability and Statistics	476	(38)
Types of Probability	477	(2)
Fundamentals of Probability	479	(4)
Management Science Application: Treasure Hunting with Probability and Statistics	481	(2)
Statistical Independence and Dependence	483	(7)
Expected Value	490	(2)
Management Science Application: A Probability Model for Analyzing Coast Guard Patrol Effectiveness	492	(1)
The Normal Distribution	492	(22)
Summary	504	(1)
References	504	(1)
Example Problem Solution	504	(2)
Problems	506	(7)
Case Problem	513	(1)
Decision Analysis	514	(58)
Components of Decision Making	515	(1)
Decision Making Without Probabilities	516	(7)
Management Science Application: Decision Analysis at DuPont	518	(5)
Decision Making with Probabilities	523	(15)
Management Science Application: Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules Using Decision Tree Analysis	534	(4)
Decision Analysis with Additional Information	538	(7)
Management Science Application: Decision Analysis in the Electric Power Industry	539	(2)
Management Science Application: Discount Fare Allocation at American Airlines	541	(4)
Management Science Application: Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant	545	(1)
Utility	545	(27)
Summary	547	(1)
References	547	(1)
Example Problem Solution	547	(4)
Problems	551	(17)
Case Problems	568	(4)
Queuing Analysis	572	(39)
Elements of Waiting Line Analysis	573	(1)
The Single-Server Waiting Line System	574	(10)
Time Out: for Agner Krarup Erlang	575	(8)
Management Science Application: Reducing Perceived Waiting Time at Bank of America	583	(1)
Undefined and Constant Service Times	584	(3)
Finite Queue Length	587	(3)
Management Science Application: Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business	589	(1)
Finite Calling Population	590	(3)
The Multiple-Server Waiting Line	593	(5)
Additional Types of Queuing Systems	598	(13)
Summary	599	(1)
References	599	(1)
Example Problem Solution	600	(1)
Problems	601	(8)
Case Problems	609	(2)
Simulation	611	(55)
The Monte Carlo Process	612	(5)
Time Out: for John Von Neumann	617	(1)
Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets	617	(6)
Simulation of a Queuing System	623	(4)
Management Science Application: Simulating the Israeli Army Recruitment Process	626	(1)
Continuous Probability Distributions	627	(5)
Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results	632	(2)
Crystal Ball	634	(9)
Verification of the Simulation Model	643	(1)
Areas of Simulation Application	643	(23)
Management Science Application: Simulating a 10-km Race in Boulder, Colorado	645	(1)
Summary	645	(1)
References	646	(1)
Example Problem Solution	647	(2)
Problems	649	(14)
Case Problems	663	(3)
Forecasting	666	(62)
Forecasting Components	667	(2)
Time Series Methods	669	(14)
Management Science Application: Product Forecasting at Nabisco	673	(1)
Management Science Application: Forecasting Customer Demand at Taco Bell	674	(5)
Management Science Application: Seasonal Forecasting at Dell	679	(4)
Management Science Application: Forecasting Service Calls at FedEx	683	(1)
Forecast Accuracy	683	(5)
Management Science Application: Demand Forecasting at National Car Rental	687	(1)
Time Series Forecasting Using Excel	688	(2)
Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows	690	(1)
Regression Methods	691	(37)
Management Science Application: Forecasting Daily Demand in the Gas Industry	695	(7)
Summary	702	(1)
References	702	(1)
Example Problem Solutions	703	(2)
Problems	705	(20)
Case Problems	725	(3)
Inventory Management	728	(53)
Elements of Inventory Management	729	(2)
Inventory Control Systems	731	(2)
Time Out: for Ford Harris	733	(1)
Economic Order Quantity Models	733	(1)
The Basic EOQ Model	733	(6)
The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt	739	(3)
The EOQ Model with Shortages	742	(4)
Management Science Application: Determining Inventory Ordering Policy at Dell	745	(1)
EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows	746	(1)
EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM	746	(1)
Quantity Discounts	747	(5)
Management Science Application: Quantity Discount Orders at Mars	750	(2)
Reorder Point	752	(2)
Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels	754	(4)
Management Science Application: Establishing Inventory Safety Stocks at Kellogg's	757	(1)
Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System	758	(15)
Summary	759	(1)
References	760	(1)
Example Problem Solutions	760	(1)
Problems	761	(8)
Case Problems	769	(4)
Appendix A
Normal Table	773	(1)
Chi-square Table	774	(1)
Appendix B
Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet	775	(4)
Appendix C
The Poisson and Exponential Distributions	779	(2)
Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems	781	(8)
Glossary	789	(6)
Index	795	(8)
Photo Credits	803