An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic

by Ian Hacking

• ISBN13: 9780521775014
• ISBN10: 0521775019
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-07-02
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world’s foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of this book are a lively and vigorous prose style; lucid and systematic organization and presentation of ideas; many practical applications; a rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science; numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed; and a full bibliography of further reading.

Table of Contents

A Note on the Cover Illustration	ix
Foreword	xi
Odd Questions	xv
LOGIC
Logic	1	(10)
What Is Inductive Logic?	11	(12)
HOW TO CALCULATE PROBABILITIES
The Gambler's Fallacy	23	(14)
Elementary Probability Ideas	37	(10)
Conditional Probability	47	(11)
The Basic Rules of Probability	58	(11)
Bayes' Rule	69	(10)
HOW TO COMBINE PROBABILITIES AND UTILITIES
Expected Value	79	(19)
Maximizing Expected Value	98	(16)
Decision under Uncertainty	114	(13)
KINDS OF PROBABILITY
What Do You Mean?	127	(13)
Theories about Probability	140	(11)
PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF BELIEF
Personal Probabilities	151	(12)
Coherence	163	(8)
Learning from Experience	171	(18)
PROBABILITY AS FREQUENCY
Stability	189	(12)
Normal Approximations	201	(8)
Significance and Power	209	(20)
Confidence and Inductive Behavior	229	(18)
PROBABILITY APPLIED TO PHILOSOPHY
The Philosophical Problem of Induction	247	(9)
Learning from Experience as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction	256	(5)
Inductive Behavior as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction	261	(8)
Answers to the Exercises	269	(24)
Further Reading	293	(7)
Index	300