Military Recruiting Trends, Outlook, and Implications

by Orvis, Bruce R.; Asch, Beth J.

• ISBN13: 9780833028747
• ISBN10: 083302874X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-06-12
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Based on indications of increased difficulty in meeting recruiting goals, in spring 1994 the Army Chief of Staff and the Deputy of Secretary of Defense asked RAND to examine recent trends in the recruiting market and to assesss their implications for meeting accession requirements. An initial examination of the 1994 market concluded that the pool of interested high-quality young men was adequate to meet DoD needs. But the system appeared to be less effective in tapping into this supply of potential enlistees. The longer-term analysis, reported here, confirms the reduced effectiveness of recruiting, and also finds that the significant increase in FY97's accessions required to sustain the postdrawdown force, coupled with a smaller decline in youth's interest in military service, translates into a possible supply shortage.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xv
Introduction	1	(6)
Background	1	(1)
Purpose and Approach of the RAND Study	2	(4)
How This Report Is Organized	6	(1)
Trends in Supply and Demand Factors	7	(26)
Supply and Demand Factors	7	(3)
Results of Econometric Analysis	10	(9)
Propensity Analysis	19	(1)
Recent Trends	19	(10)
Other Issues	29	(4)
Conversion of Potential Supply	33	(6)
Influencer Attitudes	33	(1)
Access to Potential Recruits	34	(5)
Summary and Recommendations	39	(6)
Recommendations	40	(3)
Considerations for the Longer Term	43	(2)
References	45