Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support

by Bostrom, Ann; French, Steven; Gottlieb, Sara

• ISBN13: 9783540711575
• ISBN10: 3540711570
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2007-12-04
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers and some from abroad as well as programmers and analysts from leading insurance and risk assessment firms. The introductory chapter provides an historical overview of the rise of risk assessment in the U.S., with particular emphasis on the role of seismic risk assessment. Four key components of risk assessment and decision support software are analyzed in detail in the remaining papers: treatment of uncertainty, loss assessment, modeling of seismic mitigation strategies, and visualization of risk and uncertainty. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.

Table of Contents

Introduction	p. 1
Roadmap to the Book	p. 2
A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 5
Introduction	p. 5
Terminology	p. 6
Overview of Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 9
A Brief Chronology of Selected Events in Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 11
How We Got Here	p. 11
Vulnerability	p. 30
Special Vulnerability Relations	p. 40
Asset Identification and Attributes	p. 44
Risk Analysis Methods	p. 47
Assessment	p. 50
Current Status	p. 53
Concluding Remarks	p. 55
Acknowledgments	p. 56
References	p. 57
Perspectives on the History of Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 83
Introduction	p. 83
Lessons Leaned from Current Practice and Future Needs in Regional Loss Estimation	p. 84
The Dawn of Earthquake Investigations and Cross-Continent Interactions	p. 89
Social Science Perspectives on Seismic Risk Assessment	p. 96
Seismic Risk Assessment: History and Strategic Directions	p. 97
References	p. 99
Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling: HAZUS Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	p. 101
Introduction	p. 101
HAZUS Earthquake Model Overview	p. 102
Use of HAZUS to Support Catastrophe Planning	p. 104
Use of HAZUS to Link Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Disaster Response	p. 110
Utilization of a Web-Based Data Management Portal System	p. 113
Conclusions	p. 115
References	p. 115
Perspectives on Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	p. 117
Introduction	p. 117
Recommended Improvements for HAZUS	p. 118
User Dynamics and HAZUS Development	p. 123
Perspectives from a HAZUS User	p. 127
Strategic Directions for HAZUS and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	p. 129
References	p. 132
Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	p. 135
Introduction	p. 135
Loss Dimensions	p. 136
Components of the HAZUS Loss Estimation Methodology	p. 139
Current Limitations	p. 143
Loss Calibration Studies	p. 145
General Guidelines on the Use of Loss Estimates	p. 150
Research Topics	p. 153
References	p. 154
Bibliography of Additional HAZUS Studies	p. 156
Perspectives on Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	p. 171
Introduction	p. 171
Model Validation and Priorities in Loss Metrics	p. 172
Additional Considerations in Loss Estimation	p. 175
Social and Economic Considerations in Loss Estimation Modeling	p. 179
Strategic Directions for Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	p. 181
References	p. 183
Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	p. 185
Introduction	p. 185
Seismic Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants	p. 186
Nuclear Power Plant Seismic Design	p. 187
Recommendations for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions	p. 193
Importance of Uncertainties	p. 195
Summary	p. 197
References	p. 197
Perspectives on Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	p. 199
Introduction	p. 199
Perspectives from a Risk Assessment Practitioner	p. 200
Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Current Issues	p. 208
On the Importance of Network Considerations in Lifeline Risk Assessment	p. 214
Strategic Directions for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	p. 222
References	p. 224
Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 227
Introduction	p. 228
Structure of Catastrophe Models	p. 229
A Comparison of Models	p. 230
The Exceedance Probability Curve	p. 233
Choice of Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 235
Cost-Benefit Analysis	p. 237
A Mitigation Example Using an Insurance-Based Model	p. 238
Consideration of Decision Processes	p. 242
Improving the Modeling of Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 243
References	p. 244
Perspectives on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 247
Introduction	p. 247
Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm Shift	p. 248
A Structural Engineering Perspective on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 252
The Role of Risk Modeling in Mitigation	p. 254
Adopting Mitigation	p. 255
Strategic Directions for Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	p. 256
References	p. 259
Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	p. 261
Introduction	p. 261
From Concepts to Representations	p. 263
Uncertainty Visualization	p. 269
Task-Oriented Visual Mappings	p. 282
Hazards Visualization	p. 285
Challenges	p. 290
Acknowledgments	p. 291
References	p. 291
Perspectives on Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	p. 295
Introduction	p. 295
Preferred Data Visualization Techniques May Not Lead to Comprehension and Use of Hazard Information	p. 296
Putting Seismic Risk and Uncertainty on the Map	p. 306
Keep Representations Simple for Effective Communication	p. 311
Strategic Directions for Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	p. 313
References	p. 314
Conclusion	p. 319
Index	p. 323
List of Contributing Authors	p. 329
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