Russian Foreign Policy Sources and Implications

by Oliker, Olga; Crane, Keith; Schwartz, Lowell H.; Yusupov, Catherine

• ISBN13: 9780833046079
• ISBN10: 0833046071
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 4/16/2009
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

As Russia’s economy has grown, so have the country’s global involvement and influence, which often take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes. The authors assess Russia’s strategic interests and goals, examining the country’s domestic policies, economic development, security goals, and worldview. They assess implications for U.S. interests and present ways that Washington could work to improve its relations with Moscow.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxi
Abbreviations	p. xxiii
Introduction	p. 1
A New Russia	p. 1
Russia's Security Outlook	p. 2
U.S. Security Interests	p. 3
Research Approach	p. 4
Sources of Russian Foreign Policy	p. 4
Methodology	p. 6
Monograph Outline	p. 7
Russia's Domestic Situation	p. 9
Politics in Putin's Russia: Centralization and Control	p. 9
A Strong Executive	p. 9
Parliament and Political Parties	p. 11
The Judiciary	p. 13
Regional Governments	p. 15
Redistributing Assets: Russia, Inc.	p. 16
Societal and Political Implications	p. 18
Decisionmaking and Succession in the Kremlin	p. 21
Russia's New President	p. 25
Threats from Within: Domestic Security Issues	p. 28
Population Change Poses Economic and Cultural Threats	p. 29
Demographic Change and Russian Identity	p. 35
Policy Toward Islam and Violence in the North Caucasus	p. 39
Russian Public Opinion	p. 41
Implications of Domestic Threats for Foreign Policy	p. 42
Russia's Economy and Russian Resources for Defense	p. 45
Outlook for the Russian Economy	p. 45
The Recovery	p. 45
Energy and the Russian Economy	p. 47
Russia's Economic Future: Continued, but Slower, Growth	p. 55
Threats to Growth	p. 58
The National Budget	p. 61
Defense Spending	p. 63
Current and Past Spending	p. 63
Future Spending	p. 69
The Defense Industry	p. 72
Arms Exports	p. 76
The Future of Russia's Defense Industry	p. 80
Russian Foreign Policy	p. 83
Russian Foreign Policy: Focus on Prestige and Economic Growth	p. 83
A Variety of Concerns and Priorities	p. 83
A Prestige-Seeking State	p. 87
The Importance of Economic Growth	p. 90
Russia's Post-Soviet Neighbors	p. 93
A Critical Region	p. 93
Russian Responses: Energy and Trade Policy	p. 95
Russian Responses: The Security Dimension	p. 100
Regional Organizations	p. 102
Europe	p. 105
The Russian View of Europe	p. 105
The European Union: Trade and Tension	p. 106
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe	p. 108
Key Bilateral Relationships with Western European States	p. 108
Eastern Europe and the Baltic States	p. 110
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization	p. 111
Turkey	p. 112
The Middle East	p. 113
Iran	p. 114
Other Relationships in the Middle East	p. 115
Asia	p. 116
China	p. 116
Japan	p. 120
North Korea	p. 121
Other Relationships in Asia	p. 122
Transnational Threats	p. 122
Terrorism: Definitions and Threats	p. 122
WMD Proliferation	p. 125
The United States	p. 126
Russian Public Opinion on Foreign Policy	p. 131
Russia's Evolving Goals	p. 135
Russia's Defense and Security Policy	p. 139
Goals and Doctrine	p. 139
Speeches and Documents	p. 139
Counterterrorism	p. 142
Defense and Security Spending	p. 143
Manpower	p. 145
Counterterrorism, Ground, and Naval Forces	p. 151
Goals and Priorities	p. 151
Challenges and Problems	p. 154
Equipment	p. 156
Next Steps	p. 157
Russia's Air Force: Capabilities and Trajectory	p. 158
Personnel	p. 158
Modernization	p. 159
Bomber Exercises	p. 160
Force Size	p. 160
Goals and Capabilities	p. 161
Air Defense	p. 162
Strategic Nuclear Forces	p. 162
Prestige and Security	p. 162
First Use or No First Use	p. 163
Deterrence and Missile Defense	p. 164
Policy Choices and Weapon Development	p. 167
Arms Control	p. 170
European Missile Shields	p. 171
Today's Russia: Implications for the United States	p. 175
A Difficult Partner	p. 175
The Costs of Discord: Why a Better Relationship Is in U.S. Interests	p. 177
Implications of Russian Arms Sales for U.S. Policy	p. 180
Strategies for Fostering Cooperation for the U.S. Government and the U.S. Air Force	p. 182
Transnational Threats	p. 183
Russia's Neighbors	p. 183
The Middle East	p. 185
Europe	p. 186
Energy Policies	p. 187
Missile Defense	p. 188
Arms Control	p. 189
Military Contacts and Engagement	p. 190
A Broad Cooperative Agenda	p. 192
Legislation and Regulatory Changes	p. 193
Democratization	p. 193
Managing Discord	p. 194
Bibliography	p. 197
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