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9780195211269

Exchange Rate Misalignment Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries

by ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780195211269

  • ISBN10:

    019521126X

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 1999-10-28
  • Publisher: World Bank

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Summary

"Some people may believe that crises are an inevitable feature of the capitalist system. Others hold that exchange-rate crises will vanish as more and more countries adopt floating exchange rates... But, some of us believe that crises can be avoided or at least limited by good economic management, and that having a reasonable idea of where the equilibrium exchange rate lies is an essential requirement for good macro management..."- John Williamson, Chief Economist, South Asia Region, World Bank'Exchange Rate Misalignment' provides a comprehensive treatment of the conceptual and empirical issues concerning measuring exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The report hopes to provide policymakers and their advisors with a compendium of practical techniques for estimating equilibrium real exchange rates. The book analyzes, in detail, four methodologies for the empirical estimation of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate.The findings of the report include:- An assessment of alternative empirical measures of the internal and external real exchange rates.- An up-to-date survey of the literature on estimating equilibrium exchange rates in both industrial and developing countries.- A detailed presentation of currently available methodologies for empirically estimating the equilibrium exchange rate in developing countries.The analytical depth and practical techniques provided in 'Exchange Rate Misalignment' make this book an invaluable resource for policymakers and foreign exchange specialists in the public and private sector.Published by Oxford University Press for the World Bank.

Table of Contents

Foreword ix
About the Authors xiii
Acknowledgments xv
Acronyms and Abbreviations xvii
Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Overview
1(40)
Peter J. Montiel
Lawrence E. Hinkle
The Real Exchange Rate: Concepts and Measurement
4(6)
Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
10(4)
Methodologies for Estimating the Equilibrium RER: Empirical Applications
14(14)
Policy and Operational Considerations
28(4)
Conclusions
32(9)
Part I: The Real Exchange Rate: Concepts and Measurement
External Real Exchange Rates: Purchasing Power Parity, the Mundell-Fleming Model, and Competitiveness in Traded Goods
41(72)
Lawrence E. Hinkle
Fabien Nsengiyumva
Common Features of All External Real Exchange Rate Indexes
43(29)
Measurement of the Different RER Concepts: Choosing Appropriate Price or Cost Indexes
72(14)
Comparison of Alternative External RER Measures: Competitiveness and the Terms of Trade
86(6)
Summary and Conclusions
92(7)
Appendix A: International Comparison Programme Exchange Rates
99(6)
Appendix B: The Relationship between Profitability, Competitiveness, and the Different External RERs
105(8)
The Two-Good Internal RER for Tradables and Nontradables
113(62)
Lawrence E. Hinkle
Fabien Nsengiyumva
The Two-Good Internal RER for Tradables and Nontradables: Concepts and Measurement
116(13)
The Relationship between the External RER and the Two-Good Internal RER
129(12)
External RERs and Proxies for the Two-Good Internal RER
141(11)
Summary
152(3)
Appendix: Direct Estimation of the Internal RER from National Accounts Data
155(20)
The Three-Good Internal RER for Exports, Imports, and Domestic Goods
175(44)
Lawrence E. Hinkle
Fabien Nsengiyumva
The Three-Good Internal RERs for Imports and Exports: Concepts and Measurement
176(10)
The Terms of Trade, the Internal RERs for Imports and Exports, and the External RER
186(15)
Summary and Conclusion
201(8)
Appendix A: The Relationship between the Internal RER for Imports, the External RER, and the Terms of Trade
209(3)
Appendix B: An Additional Possible Proxy for the Three-Good Internal RER
212(7)
Part II: Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
The Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Research
219(45)
Peter J. Montiel
Conceptual Issues
220(13)
Empirical Estimation: Industrial Countries
233(21)
Empirical Estimation: Developing Countries
254(6)
Summary
260(4)
Determinants of the Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: An Analytical Model
264(29)
Peter J. Montiel
The Analytical Framework
266(8)
The Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
274(4)
Long-Run Fundamentals
278(11)
Summary and Conclusions
289(4)
Part III: Methodologies for Estimating the Equilibrium RER: Empirical Applications
Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Empirically: Operational Approaches
293(66)
Theodore O. Ahlers
Lawrence E. Hinkle
The Relative PPP-Based Approach to RER Misalignment
296(17)
The Trade-Equations Approach: Establishing the Quantitative Relationship between the RER and the Resource Balance
313(8)
Determining the Target Resource Balance
321(12)
Adjusting the Initial Resource Balance
333(9)
Conclusion: Advantages and Limitations of the Trade-Equations Methodology
342(3)
Appendix A: The RER, Trade-Elasticities, Resource Balance Relationship in a Three-Good Framework
345(9)
Appendix B: Representative Estimates of the Income Elasticity of Demand for Imports
354(2)
Appendix C: Formulas for Exchange Rate Appreciation, Depreciation, and Misalignment in Domestic- and Foreign-Currency Terms
356(3)
Estimates of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment with a Simple General-Equilibrium Model
359(22)
Shantayanan Devarajan
The DLR Model
361(4)
Applying the DLR Model to the Pre-1994 CFA Zone
365(7)
Sensitivity Analyses and Extensions
372(6)
Conclusion
378(2)
Appendix: The DLR Model
380(1)
Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Changes in Developing Countries: Simulations from an Econometric Model
381(24)
Nadeem Ul Haque
Peter J. Montiel
A Brief Description of the Model
383(8)
Domestic Policy Shocks
391(4)
External Shocks
395(3)
Summary and Conclusions
398(4)
Appendix: An Application to Thailand
402(3)
Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
405(62)
John Baffes
Ibrahim A. Elbadawi
Stephen A. O'Connell
Step One: Modeling the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
407(11)
A Brief Detour: Motivating the Single-Equation Approach
418(7)
Step Two: Estimation
425(18)
Step Three: Calculating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
443(8)
Conclusions
451(5)
Appendix A: Conditioning and Weak Exogeneity
456(3)
Appendix B: Data Description
459(2)
Appendix C: Sustainable Fundamentals
461(6)
Part IV: Policy and Operational Considerations
The Three Pessimisms: Real Exchange Rates and Trade Flows in Developing Countries
467(30)
Nita Ghei
Lant Pritchett
The Import Response to a Real Depreciation
470(12)
Export Demand Pessimism
482(3)
The Export Supply Response to RER Movements
485(9)
Summary and Conclusion
494(3)
The Use of the Parallel Market Rate as a Guide to Setting the Official Exchange Rate
497(42)
Nita Ghei
Steven B. Kamin
Essential Characteristics of Parallel Exchange Markets
499(6)
A Simple Model of Parallel Exchange Rate Determination
505(17)
Trends in Official and Parallel Real Exchange Rates
522(10)
Summary and Conclusions
532(3)
Appendix: Sensitivity of Results to Choice of Real Exchange Rate
535(4)
A Note on Nominal Devaluations, Inflation, and the Real Exchange Rate
539(48)
Nita Ghei
Lawrence E. Hinkle
Devaluations, Inflation, and the External RER: the Stylized Facts
544(8)
An Accounting Framework for Determining Consistent Nominal and Relative Prices
552(18)
Conclusion: Advantage and Limitations of the Consistency Framework
570(3)
Appendix: The Accounting Framework for the Two-Good Internal RER
573(14)
References 587(18)
Index 605

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