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9780833035325

Building a Successful Palestinian State

by ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780833035325

  • ISBN10:

    0833035320

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2005-04-27
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Summary

A critical mass of Palestinians and Israelis, as well as the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations, remain committed to the establishment of a Palestinian state. The authors, examine in objective fasion the requirements for creating and maintaining successful statehood during the first decade of Palestine's independence.

Table of Contents

Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
Figures xxi
Tables xxiii
Summary xxvii
Abbreviations xxxix
Glossary xliii
CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1(12)
Organization of This Book
2(1)
Defining "Success"
3(1)
Conditions for Success
4(3)
Security
4(1)
Good Governance and Political Legitimacy
4(1)
Economic Viability
5(1)
Social Well-Being
6(1)
Crosscutting Issues: Permeability, Contiguity, and Security
7(2)
Permeability
7(1)
Contiguity
8(1)
Security
8(1)
Estimating the Costs of Success
9(4)
CHAPTER TWO Governance 13(20)
Summary
13(1)
Introduction
13(2)
The Relationship Between State Legitimacy and Good Governance
15(5)
The Importance of the 1967 Borders
15(1)
Contiguity of Land
16(1)
Jerusalem and State Legitimacy
16(1)
Legitimacy and Violence
17(1)
Other Variables Affecting Good Governance
17(2)
PA Authoritarianism
19(1)
Requirements for Good Governance in Palestine
20(9)
Promoting the Rule of Law
23(2)
Empovering Parliamentary Democracy
25(3)
Promoting Meritocracy in the Civil Service
28(1)
Costs
28(1)
Conclusion
29(1)
Bibliography
30(3)
CHAPTER THREE Internal Security 33(40)
Summary
33(1)
Introduction
34(1)
Historical Overview
35(5)
Phases of Internal Security
36(1)
Terrorist and Militant Groups
36(2)
The Palestinian Security Structure
38(1)
Administration of Justice
39(1)
Internal Security Challenges
40(6)
Administration of Justice
44(2)
Internal Security Options
46(14)
Administration of Justice
46(8)
Reform of the Security Services
54(6)
Costing the Options
60(4)
General Reconstruction Costs
61(1)
Cost Summary
62(2)
Bibliography
64(9)
CHAPTER FOUR Demography 73(34)
Summary
73(1)
Introduction
74(2)
The Palestinian Population and Its Post-1948 Diaspora
76(4)
A Profile of the Population in the West Bank and Gaza
80(4)
Prospects of Future Population Growth in the West Bank and Gaza
84(9)
Dynamics of Future Population Growth
84(1)
Projected Growth
85(3)
Accuracy of the Underlying Assumptions
88(5)
Implications of Population for the State-Building Process
93(6)
Carrying Capacity
93(1)
Service Demand
94(3)
Demographic Pressures on the Palestinian Economy
97(2)
Prospects for Return Migration
99(6)
Importance of the Issues
99(1)
Key Issues
100(2)
Estimates of Potential Returnees
102(3)
Bibliography
105(2)
CHAPTER FIVE Economics 107(56)
Summary
107(2)
The Palestinian Economy
107(1)
Major Challenges and Issues
108(1)
Economic Scenarios and Implications
108(1)
Policy Options
109(1)
Introduction: Overview of the Palestinian Economy
109(7)
Snapshot of Palestinian Economy in 1999
110(2)
Palestinian Economic Development from 1967 to the Oslo Accords in 1993
112(1)
Palestinian Economic Development from the Oslo Accords to 1999
113(2)
The Palestinian Economy Under the Current Intifada
115(1)
Principal Challenges and Critical Issues Confronting the Palestinian Economy
116(10)
Principal Challenges
116(6)
Critical Issues
122(4)
Economic Scenarios for a Future Palestinian State
126(7)
Scenarios of Economic Development
126(1)
Geographic Contiguity
127(1)
Economic Integration
127(1)
Four Scenarios
128(3)
Summary of Implications
131(2)
Economic Implications of the Scenarios for a Future Palestinian State
133(8)
Growth Accounting Model
133(6)
Limitations of the Growth Accounting Model
139(1)
Potential Inflows of Foreign Assistance
139(2)
Best-Practice Economic Policies for Stimulating Economic Growth
141(8)
Fostering Free Trade
142(1)
Partnering with Neighboring Countries
142(1)
Investing in Infrastructure
143(2)
Easing Palestinian Employment in Israel
145(1)
Expanding Access to Capital
145(1)
Choosing Currencies
146(1)
Improving the Business Climate
147(1)
Investing in Human Capital
148(1)
Conclusions
149(1)
Appendix 5.A: The Growth Accounting Model
150(10)
Gross Domestic Product
150(1)
Total Factor Productivity (A)
151(1)
Capital Stock (K)
151(1)
Elasticity of GDP with Respect to Capital (α)
152(1)
Labor Force
152(1)
Employment in Israel
153(1)
Domestic Employment
153(2)
Calculating Palestinian National Income
155(5)
Bibliography
160(3)
CHAPTER SIX Water 163(60)
Summary
163(1)
Introduction
164(1)
Water, Agriculture, and Energy in the Middle East
165(7)
Water Scarcity in the Middle East
165(2)
The Jordan River
167(2)
Integrated Management
169(3)
Water Issues in Israel and Palestine: The Past and Present
172(8)
Historical Context
172(2)
Current Situation
174(6)
Water for a Future Palestinian State: Policy Options
180(9)
Demand Management
180(4)
Supply Enhancement and Sustainability
184(3)
Infrastructure Improvements
187(2)
Modeling Future Water Demand and Supply for Palestine
189(4)
Modeling Mechanics
190(1)
Demand
191(1)
Supply
192(1)
Infrastructure
192(1)
Project Cost
192(1)
Options for the Future
193(15)
The Base Case
196(1)
Supply
197(5)
Costs
202(1)
Increased Efficiency Scenario
202(4)
Increased Efficiency-Reduced Gaza Agriculture Scenario
206(2)
Robust Policies
208(3)
Conclusions
211(2)
Appendix 6.A
213(5)
Demand
213(2)
New Supplies
215(1)
Water Network
216(2)
Bibliography
218(5)
CHAPTER SEVEN Health 223(86)
Summary
223(2)
Introduction
225(2)
What Is a Successful Health System?
227(1)
Alternative Scenarios for an Independent State
228(3)
Population Mobility
228(1)
International Access
229(1)
Other Crosscutting Issues
230(1)
Methods
231(1)
Background
231(12)
Health Status
232(2)
Health System Organization
234(1)
Health Care Infrastructure
235(2)
Health System Funding and Expenditures
237(2)
Patient Benefits and Costs
239(4)
Strengthening Key Institutions, Policies, and Programs
243(41)
Health System Planning, Policy Development, and Policy Implementation
243(7)
Health Insurance and Health Care Finance
250(8)
Licensing and Certification of Health Professionals
258(4)
Licensing and Accreditation of Health Care Facilities and Services
262(2)
Human Resource Development
264(6)
Health Care Quality Improvement
270(2)
Policies on Prescription Drugs and Medical Devices
272(3)
Health Information Systems
275(4)
Research
279(1)
Programs for Rapid Improvement
280(4)
Priorities and Timing
284(1)
Cost
285(3)
Discussion
288(3)
Role of International Donors
289(1)
Limitations of Our Analysis
289(1)
In Closing
290(1)
Appendix 7.A: Selected Objectives from Prior Palestinian Health Plans
291(3)
Appendix 7.B: Methods
294(3)
Appendix 7.C: Letter of Introduction Regarding RAND's Health System Analysis
297(4)
About RAND and RAND Health
297(1)
About RAND's Palestine Project
298(1)
About RAND's Analysis of the Palestinian Health System
298(2)
Planned Trip to the Region
300(1)
Appendix 7.D: Integration with Prior and Concurrent Health Sector Analyses
301(1)
Bibliography
302(7)
CHAPTER EIGHT Education 309(70)
Summary
309(2)
Introduction
311(1)
What Is a Successful Education System in the 21st Century?
312(7)
Access
313(1)
Quality
314(1)
Delivery
314(1)
Issues Crossing Multiple Domains
315(1)
Relevance
315(1)
Global Competencies
316(1)
Gender Equity
317(2)
Historical Development of Palestinian Education (1517-2004)
319(7)
Education Under the Ottomans (1517-1917)
319(1)
The British Mandate (1917-1948)
320(1)
1948-1967
320(1)
1967-1987
321(1)
The First Intifada (1987-1993)
322(1)
Early Autonomy (1994-1999)
323(1)
Al-Agra Intifada (2000-2004)
324(2)
The Palestinian Educational System Today
326(7)
Structure
326(1)
Scope and Enrollment
327(2)
Governance
329(1)
Preschool and Special Services
329(1)
Grade Repetition and Dropout Rates
330(1)
Classroom Context
330(1)
Teacher Characteristics
331(1)
Financing
332(1)
Strengths and Challenges Regarding Future Development
333(17)
Foundations to Build On: Strengths of the System
334(6)
Challenges
340(10)
Planning for the Future: Efforts to Date
350(1)
Moving Forward: Recommendations for a Strong Education System in a Palestinian State
351(7)
Maintaining and Expanding Access
353(1)
Building Quality
354(3)
Improving Delivery
357(1)
Costs of Building a Successful Palestinian Education System
358(4)
Summary and Conclusion
362(3)
Appendix 8.A: Methods for Estimating Education Costs
365(5)
Per Student Expenditures
365(3)
Enrollments
368(2)
Bibliography
370(9)
CHAPTER NINE Conclusions 379(16)
Requirements for Success
380(2)
State Founding
381(1)
State Enabling
381(1)
State Maturation
382(1)
Options for Facilitating Success
382(3)
Promoting Security
382(1)
Addressing Population Growth
383(1)
Developing a Vibrant Economy
383(1)
Improving the Quantity and Quality of Palestine's Water
384(1)
Improving Health Care
384(1)
Improving the Education System
385(1)
Financing Successful Development
385(6)
Costs to Implement the Recommendations Described in This Study
386(3)
Donor Funding and the Costs of Creating a Viable Palestinian State
389(2)
In Conclusion
391(1)
Appendix 9.A: Major Infrastructure Investments
392(3)
Road Improvements
392(1)
Gaza Seaport
393(1)
Airport
393(1)
Electric Power Grid
394(1)
Index 395

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