Seasonal Stock Market Trends : The Definitive Guide to Calendar-Based Stock Market Trading

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  • Edition: 1st
  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2009-01-09
  • Publisher: Wiley

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There is a seasonal bias to the stock market, and by paying attention to the seasonal market tendencies you can gain an edge in the stock market over the long haul. Seasonality offers a practical approach to investing and trading. What better way to learn how to employ seasonal systems than learning from Jay Kaeppel, a master in the analysis of seasonal trends? Kaeppel walks you through this phenomenon that continues to work consistently, providing you with his ultimate seasonal index to make the calendar work for you. Stock Market Seasonals provides a never-before-seen definitive guide that illustrates how to utilize a combination of four basic seasonal tendencies in order to maximize returns.

Author Biography

Jay Kaeppel is a successful trading strategist for Optionetics, Inc., and is actively involved in developing new trading-related products. He pens a weekly column titled "Kaeppel's Corner," in which he writes on a variety of trading topics for www.Optionetics.com. A former Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA), Kaeppel has over twenty years of trading, writing, system development, and programming experience, and is the author of The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading, The Four Biggest Mistakes in Option Trading, and The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing (Wiley). He has also developed a variety of award-winning futures and options software programs and published dozens of articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Active Trader magazines. For more information on Jay and his works, visit www.seasonaltrades.com.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. xi
Introduction to Seasonality in the Stock Marketp. 1
The Concept of Seasons and Seasonalityp. 2
What Is Seasonality?p. 5
The Pioneers of Stock Market Seasonalityp. 7
Measuring Market Performance throughout This Bookp. 9
How to Trade the Dowp. 11
Seasonal Trends to Considerp. 14
Summing Upp. 18
The Month of Januaryp. 21
The First Five Days of Januaryp. 22
The Last Five Days of Januaryp. 25
The January Barometerp. 27
The January Barometer as a Stand-Alone Systemp. 29
The JayNewary Barometerp. 31
The Ultimate January Barometer Systemp. 38
The Effect of Compoundingp. 42
A Few Words of Warningp. 46
Summing Upp. 47
Holiday Seasonal Trendsp. 49
The Holidaysp. 50
The Trading Day before Each Holidayp. 51
Two Days before Each Holidayp. 52
Three Days before and after Each Holidayp. 54
The Best Holiday Trading Daysp. 56
The Ultimate Holiday Systemp. 61
The Most Wonderful Week of the Year (Usually)p. 63
Summing Upp. 65
Monthly Seasonal Trendsp. 67
The Best Day of the Monthp. 68
The Trading Days of the Monthp. 71
The Worst Trading Days of the Monthp. 80
The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 1)p. 81
The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 2): The Month-End/New-Month Patternp. 83
The Most Wonderful Time of the Yearp. 89
Monthly 10 Combined with the Santa Claus Rallyp. 91
The Ultimate Monthly Days Systemp. 93
One Last Tweakp. 96
Summing Upp. 100
Yearly Seasonal Trendsp. 103
Decennial Patterns (Part 1: Ranking the Years)p. 104
Decennial Patterns (Part 2: The Best and Worst Years)p. 106
Decennial Patterns (Part 3: The Decennial Road Map)p. 110
Decennial Tendenciesp. 111
Decade-by-Decade Performancep. 112
Intradecade Trends of Notep. 123
Intradecade Cycles Combinedp. 130
Summing Upp. 136
Repetitive Time Cycles of Notep. 139
The 212-Week Cyclep. 140
The 40-Week Cyclep. 146
The 53-Day Cyclep. 153
Combining Cyclesp. 163
The Ultimate Time Cycles Modelp. 168
Summing Upp. 172
Election Cycle Investingp. 173
The Election Cycle: By the Yearsp. 175
The Election Cycle: By the Monthsp. 187
Two Other Patterns in the Election Cyclep. 205
The Ultimate Election Cycle Systemp. 210
Summing Upp. 214
Sell in May and Go Awayp. 219
November to Mayp. 220
What Is MACD?p. 225
Using MACD as a Filterp. 227
October through June for the Nasdaqp. 238
The Dead Zonesp. 246
The Easiest Market-Beating Strategy in the Worldp. 260
October of Year 7p. 261
Summing Upp. 264
Putting It All Togetherp. 267
Building Seasonal Trading Modelsp. 268
Building the KTIp. 271
Comparing Extreme KTI Readingsp. 273
Model 1: The Long-Only Methodp. 276
Model 2: The Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Methodp. 278
Model 3: Jay's Ultimate Seasonal Barometerp. 281
Summing Upp. 284
Indexp. 291
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