Shaping the Next One Hundred Years New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

by Lempert, Robert J.; Popper, Steven W.; Bankes, Steven C.

• ISBN13: 9780833032751
• ISBN10: 0833032755
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-10-09
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

What should people do today to shape the next hundred years to their liking?

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xix
Abbreviations	xxi
Chapter One THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS	1	(10)
Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible	3	(4)
The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development	7	(1)
Surprise: The Constant Element	8	(1)
Organization of This Report	8	(3)
Chapter Two A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE	11	(28)
Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future	12	(4)
Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight	16	(4)
Simulation Modeling	20	(5)
Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty	25	(4)
Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures	29	(7)
Assessing the State of the Art	36	(3)
Chapter Three ROBUST DECISIONMAKING	39	(30)
Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty	40	(5)
Consider Ensembles of Scenarios	45	(7)
Seek Robust Strategies	52	(5)
Employ Adaptive Strategies	57	(5)
Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively	62	(4)
Concluding Thoughts	66	(3)
Chapter Four A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION	69	(18)
The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability	69	(1)
The "XLRM" Framework	70	(17)
Chapter Five IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING	87	(38)
Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development	87	(4)
Landscapes of Plausible Futures	91	(5)
No Fixed Strategy Is Robust	96	(7)
Exploring Near-Term Milestones	103	(7)
Identifying a Robust Strategy	110	(7)
Characterizing Irreducible Risks	117	(4)
Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development	121	(4)
Chapter Six POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS	125	(20)
Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators	126	(5)
Improved Navigation	131	(4)
A Diversity of Measures and Values	135	(2)
Engaging the Community of Stakeholders	137	(4)
Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking	141	(4)
Chapter Seven CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES	145	(4)
Appendix
A. DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIO GENERATOR	149	(16)
B. ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES	165	(14)
Bibliography	179