The Singularity Is Near When Humans Transcend Biology

by Kurzweil, Ray

• ISBN13: 9780670033843
• ISBN10: 0670033847
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2005-09-22
• Publisher: Viking Adult

Summary

The great inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil is one of the best-known and controversial advocates for the role of machines in the future of humanity. In his latest, thrilling foray into the future, he envisions an event—the singularity”—in which technological change becomes so rapid and so profound that our bodies and brains will merge with our machines.The Singularity Is Nearportrays what life will be like after this event—a human-machine civilization where our experiences shift from real reality to virtual reality and where our intelligence becomes nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than unaided human intelligence. In practical terms, this means that human aging and pollution will be reversed, world hunger will be solved, and our bodies and environment transformed by nanotechnology to overcome the limitations of biology, including death.We will be able to create virtually any physical product just from information, resulting in radical wealth creation. In addition to outlining these fantastic changes, Kurzweil also considers their social and philosophical ramifications. With its radical but optimistic view of the course of human development, The Singularity Is Nearis certain to be one of the most widely discussed and provocative books of 2005.

Author Biography

Ray Kurzweil is a prize-winning author and scientist. Recipient of the MIT- Lemelson Prize (the world-'s largest for innovation), and inducted into the Inventor-'s Hall of Fame, he received the 1999 National Medal of Technology. His books include The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Age of Intelligent Machines.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	xv
Prologue	1	(6)
The Power of Ideas
The Six Epochs	7	(28)
The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View	10	(4)
The Six Epochs	14	(7)
Epoch One: Physics and Chemistry
Epoch Two: Biology and DNA
Epoch Three: Brains
Epoch Four: Technology
Epoch Five: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence
Epoch Six: The Universe Wakes Up
The Singularity Is Near	21	(14)
A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns	35	(76)
The Nature of Order
The Life Cycle of a Paradigm
Fractal Designs
Farsighted Evolution
The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle	51	(5)
The Life Cycle of a Technology
From Goat Skins to Downloads
Moore's Law and Beyond	56	(16)
Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
The Fifth Paradigm
Fractal Dimensions and the Brain
DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization	72	(24)
Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata
Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?
The Singularity as Economic Imperative	96	(15)
Get Eighty Trillion Dollars---Limited Time Only
Deflation . . . a Bad Thing?
Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain	111	(32)
The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies	111	(11)
The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing
Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet
Computing with Molecules
Self-Assembly
Emulating Biology
Computing with DNA
Computing with Spin
Computing with Light
Quantum Computing
The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain	122	(5)
Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing
Human Memory Capacity
The Limits of Computation	127	(16)
Reversible Computing
How Smart Is a Rock?
The Limits of Nano-computing
Setting a Date for the Singularity
Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain
Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light
Going Back in Time
Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain	143	(62)
Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task	144	(5)
New Brain-Imaging and Modeling Tools
The Software of the Brain
Analytic Versus Neuromorphic Modeling of the Brain
How Complex Is the Brain?
Modeling the Brain
Peeling the Onion
Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer?	149	(8)
The Brain's Circuits Are Very Slow
But It's Massively Parallel
The Brain Combines Analog and Digital Phenomena
The Brain Rewires Itself
Most of the Details in the Brain Are Random
The Brain Uses Emergent Properties
The Brain Is Imperfect
We Contradict Ourselves
The Brain Uses Evolution
The Patterns Are Important
The Brain Is Holographic
The Brain Is Deeply Connected
The Brain Does Have an Architecture of Regions
The Design of a Brain Region Is Simpler than the Design of a Neuron
Trying to Understand Our Own Thinking: The Accelerating Pace of Research
Peering into the Brain	157	(10)
New Tools for Scanning the Brain
Improving Resolution
Scanning Using Nanobots
Building Models of the Brain	167	(27)
Subneural Models: Synapses and Spines
Neuron Models
Electronic Neurons
Brain Plasticity
Modeling Regions of the Brain
A Neuromorphic Model: The Cerebellum
Another Example: Watts's Model of the Auditory Regions
The Visual System
Other Works in Progress: An Artificial Hippocampus and an Artificial Olivocerebellar Region
Understanding Higher-Level Functions: Imitation, Prediction, and Emotion
Interfacing the Brain and Machines	194	(1)
The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain	195	(3)
The Scalability of Human Intelligence
Uploading the Human Brain	198	(7)
GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions	205	(94)
Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology	206	(20)
Life's Computer
Designer Baby Boomers
Can We Really Live Forever?
RNAi (RNA Interference)
Cell Therapies
Gene Chips
Somatic Gene Therapy
Reversing Degenerative Disease
Combating Heart Disease
Overcoming Cancer
Reversing Aging
DNA Mutations
Toxic Cells
Mitochondrial Mutations
Intracellular Aggregates
Extracellular Aggregates
Cell Loss and Atrophy
Human Cloning: The Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology
Why Is Cloning Important?
Preserving Endangered Species and Restoring Extinct Ones
Therapeutic Cloning
Human Somatic-Cell Engineering
Solving World Hunger
Human Cloning Revisited
Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World	226	(33)
The Biological Assembler
Upgrading the Cell Nucleus with a Nanocomputer and Nanobot
Fat and Sticky Fingers
The Debate Heats Up
Early Adopters
Powering the Singularity
Applications of Nanotechnology to the Environment
Nanobots in the Bloodstream
Robotics: Strong Al	259	(40)
Runaway Al
The AI Winter
AI's Toolkit
Expert Systems
Bayesian Nets
Markov Models
Neural Nets
Genetic Algorithms (GAs)
Recursive Search
Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider?
The Specialized-Hardware Advantage
Deep Blue Versus Deep Fritz
Significant Software Gains
Are Human Chess Players Doomed?
Combining Methods
A Narrow AI Sampler
Military and Intelligence
Space Exploration
Medicine
Science and Math
Business, Finance, and Manufacturing
Manufacturing and Robotics
Speech and Language
Entertainment and Sports
Strong AI
The Impact . . .	299	(70)
A Panoply of Impacts
... on the Human Body	300	(12)
A New Way of Eating
Redesigning the Digestive System
Programmable Blood
Have a Heart, or Not
So What's Left?
Redesigning the Human Brain
We Are Becoming Cyborgs
Human Body Version 3.0
... on the Human Brain	312	(8)
The 2010 Scenario
The 2030 Scenario
Become Someone Else
Experience Beamers
Expand Your Mind
... on Human Longevity	320	(10)
The Transformation to Nonbiological Experience
The Longevity of Information
... on Warfare: The Remote, Robotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm	330	(5)
Smart Dust
Nanoweapons
Smart Weapons
VR
... on Learning	335	(2)
... on Work	337	(5)
Intellectual Property
Decentralization
... on Play	341	(1)
... on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe	342	(27)
The Drake Equation
The Limits of Computation Revisited
Bigger or Smaller
Expanding Beyond the Solar System
The Speed of Light Revisited
Wormholes
Changing the Speed of Light
The Fermi Paradox Revisited
The Anthropic Principle Revisited
The Multiverse
Evolving Universes
Intelligence as the Destiny of the Universe
The Ultimate Utility Function
Hawking Radiation
Why Intelligence Is More Powerful than Physics
A Universe-Scale Computer
The Holographic Universe
Ich bin ein Singularitarian	369	(22)
Still Human?
The Vexing Question of Consciousness	376	(6)
Who Am I? What Am I?	382	(5)
The Singularity as Transcendence	387	(4)
The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR	391	(36)
Intertwined Benefits . . .	396	(1)
. . . and Dangers	397	(3)
A Panoply of Existential Risks	400	(8)
The Precautionary Principle
The Smaller the Interaction, the Larger the Explosive Potential
Our Simulation Is Turned Off
Crashing the Party
GNR: The Proper Focus of Promise Versus Peril
The Inevitability of a Transformed Future
Totalitarian Relinquishment
Preparing the Defenses	408	(2)
Strong AI
Returning to the Past?
The Idea of Relinquishment	410	(6)
Broad Relinquishment
Fine-Grained Relinquishment
Dealing with Abuse
The Threat from Fundamentalism
Fundamentalist Humanism
Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation	416	(6)
Protection from ``Unfriendly'' Strong AI
Decentralization
Distributed Energy
Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare
A Program for GNR Defense	422	(5)
Response to Critics	427	(58)
A Panoply of Criticisms	427	(5)
The Criticism from Incredulity	432	(1)
The Criticism from Malthus	433	(2)
Exponential Trends Don't Last Forever
A Virtually Unlimited Limit
The Criticism from Software	435	(7)
Software Stability
Software Responsiveness
Software Price-Performance
Software Development Productivity
Software Complexity
Accelerating Algorithms
The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms
The Criticism from Analog Processing	442	(1)
The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing	442	(8)
Brain Complexity
A Computer's Inherent Dualism
Levels and Loops
The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing	450	(3)
The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis	453	(3)
The Criticism from Failure Rates	456	(1)
The Criticism from ``Lock-In''	457	(1)
The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious?	458	(11)
Kurzweil's Chinese Room
The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide	469	(1)
The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation	470	(3)
The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions
The Criticism from Theism	473	(6)
The Criticism from Holism	479	(6)
Epilogue	485	(4)
How Singular?
Human Centrality
Resources and Contact Information	489	(2)
Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited	491	(6)
Notes	497	(106)
Index	603