Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

by Evans, James R.; Olson, David Louis

• ISBN13: 9780130205452
• ISBN10: 0130205451
• Edition: CD
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-11-01
• Publisher: Pearson College Div

Summary

For a brief or modular course covering business statistics and introductory topics in management science. Designed specifically for today's shorter courses, often found in MBA programs. This text covers the basic concepts of business statistics, data analysis, and management science in a contemporary spreadsheet environment. The authors emphasize practical applications of the approaches to business decision making.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
PART I
Data and Business Decisions	1	(18)
The Importance of Data Analysis and Decision Modeling	2	(1)
Types and Sources of Business Data	3	(7)
The Tracway database	6	(4)
Measurement and Statistics	10	(3)
Populations and samples	12	(1)
Decision Models	13	(1)
Using Microsoft Excel	14	(3)
Excel add-ins: PHStat, Crystal Ball, and TreePlan	15	(1)
Working with data	15	(2)
Summary	17	(1)
Questions and Problems	18	(1)
Displaying and Summarizing Data	19	(38)
Displaying Data with Charts and Graphs	20	(10)
Column and bar charts	23	(2)
Line charts	25	(3)
Pie charts	28	(1)
Area charts	29	(1)
Scatter Diagrams	29	(1)
Summary of graphical display methods	30	(1)
Descriptive Statistics	30	(13)
Frequency distributions and histograms	32	(2)
Measures of central tendency	34	(2)
Measures of dispersion	36	(2)
Coefficient of variation	38	(1)
Measures of shape	38	(1)
Excel's descriptive statistics tool	38	(3)
Data profiles and proportions	41	(2)
Visual Display of Statistical Measures	43	(5)
Box-and-whisker plots	43	(3)
Stem-and-leaf displays	46	(2)
Statistical Relationships	48	(3)
Case Study: Using Descriptive Statistics for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award	51	(3)
Summary	54	(1)
Questions and Problems	54	(3)
Random Variables and Probability Distributions	57	(40)
Basic Concepts	58	(5)
Probability	58	(1)
Random variables	59	(1)
Probability distributions	59	(3)
Expected value and variance of a random variable	62	(1)
Discrete Probability Distributions	63	(3)
Bernoulli and binomial distributions	63	(2)
Poisson distribution	65	(1)
Continuous Probability Distributions	66	(12)
Uniform distribution	67	(1)
Normal distribution	68	(3)
Triangular distribution	71	(1)
Exponential distribution	72	(2)
Probability distributions in PHStat	74	(1)
Other useful distributions	75	(3)
Random Sampling from Probability Distributions	78	(8)
Random numbers	78	(1)
Sampling from probability distributions	79	(1)
Sampling from probability distributions in Excel	80	(3)
Sampling distributions and sampling error	83	(3)
Summary	86	(1)
Questions and Problems	87	(2)
Appendix: Introduction to Crystal Ball	89	(8)
Specifying input information	90	(4)
Crystal Ball output	94	(3)
Sampling and Statistical Analysis for Decision Making	97	(43)
Statistical Sampling	98	(5)
Sample design	99	(1)
Sampling methods	100	(2)
Error in sampling	102	(1)
Sampling from finite populations	103	(1)
Statistical Analysis of Sample Data	103	(1)
Estimation	103	(8)
Point estimates	103	(2)
Interval estimates	105	(1)
Confidence intervals for the mean	106	(4)
Confidence intervals for proportions	110	(1)
Confidence intervals and sample size	110	(1)
Hypothesis Testing	111	(14)
Hypothesis formulation	112	(1)
Significance level	113	(1)
Decision rules	114	(2)
Using p-values	116	(3)
Two-sample hypothesis tests for means	119	(1)
F-test for testing variances	119	(3)
Tests for proportions	122	(2)
Other hypothesis tests	124	(1)
Anova: Testing Differences of Several Means	125	(2)
Chi-Square Test for Independence	127	(2)
Summary	129	(2)
Questions and Problems	131	(2)
Appendix: Distribution Fitting	133	(7)
Distribution fitting with Crystal Ball	137	(3)
Statistical Quality Control	140	(27)
The Role of Statistics and Data Analysis in Quality Control	141	(1)
Statistical Process Control	142	(10)
Control Charts	143	(1)
x-and R-charts	144	(4)
Analyzing control charts	148	(4)
Control Charts for Attributes	152	(2)
Statistical Issues in the Design of Control Charts	154	(1)
Process Capability Analysis	155	(2)
Summary	157	(1)
Questions and Problems	158	(9)
PART II
Regression	167	(36)
Simple Linear Regression	170	(3)
Least Squares estimation	170	(3)
Measuring Variation about the Regression Line	173	(5)
Coefficient of determination and correlation coefficient	176	(1)
Standard error of the estimate and confidence bands	176	(2)
Regression as Analysis of Variance	178	(3)
Assumptions of Regression Analysis	181	(1)
Application of Regression Analysis to Investment Risk	182	(3)
Multiple Linear Regression	185	(3)
Interpreting results from multiple linear regression	187	(1)
Building Good Regression Models	188	(3)
Using Adjusted R+2 to evaluate fit	188	(1)
Correlation and multicollinearity	189	(1)
Best subsets regression	190	(1)
Regression with Ordinal and Nominal Independent Variables	191	(3)
Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms	194	(4)
Summary	198	(1)
Questions and Problems	199	(4)
Forecasting	203	(31)
Qualitative and Judgmental Methods	204	(5)
Historical analogy	205	(1)
The Delphi method	205	(1)
Applying the Delphi method	206	(2)
Indicators and indexes	208	(1)
Statistical Forecasting Models	209	(11)
Moving average models	210	(2)
Error metrics and forecast accuracy	212	(4)
Exponential smoothing models	216	(1)
Incorporating trend and seasonality into exponential smoothing models	217	(3)
Regression Models	220	(3)
Incorporating seasonality in regression models	222	(1)
The Practice of Forecasting	223	(3)
Summary	226	(1)
Questions and Problems	227	(2)
Appendix: CB Predictor	229	(5)
Selection Models and Risk Analysis	234	(42)
Decision Criteria and Selection	235	(14)
Decisions involving a single alternative	236	(1)
Sensitivity analysis	237	(2)
Decisions involving mutually exclusive alternatives	239	(2)
Decisions involving nonmutually exclusive alternatives	241	(1)
Decisions involving uncertainty	242	(7)
Monte Carlo Simulation for Risk Analysis	249	(4)
Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation	253	(6)
Project management	253	(4)
Budget-Constrained product selection	257	(2)
Case Study: Simulation and Risk Analysis in New Product Screening at Cinergy Corporation	259	(4)
Summary	263	(1)
Questions and Problems	263	(8)
Appendix: Additional Crystal Ball Options	271	(5)
Correlated assumptions	271	(1)
Freezing assumptions	271	(1)
Overlay charts	272	(1)
Trend charts	272	(1)
Sensitivity charts	272	(4)
Introduction to Optimization	276	(39)
Constrained Optimization	278	(1)
Types of Optimization Problems	279	(5)
Linear optimization example: transportation problem	280	(2)
Integer optimization example: project selection	282	(1)
Nonlinear optimization example: hotel pricing	283	(1)
Spreadsheet Optimization	284	(2)
Solving the optimal pricing problem	285	(1)
Solving Linear Optimization Models	286	(5)
Interpreting Solver reports	288	(2)
Difficulties with Solver	290	(1)
Solving Integer Optimization Models	291	(1)
Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models	292	(2)
Risk Analysis of Optimization Results	294	(2)
Combining Optimization and Simulation	296	(8)
A portfolio allocation model	296	(1)
Using OptQuest	297	(6)
Interpreting results	303	(1)
Adding a requirement	303	(1)
Summary	304	(1)
Questions and Problems	304	(11)
APPENDIX	315	(10)
Table A.1 The Standardized Normal Distribution	316	(1)
Table A.2 The Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution	317	(2)
Table A.3 Critical Values of t	319	(2)
Table A.4 Critical Values of F	321	(4)
Index	325