The Theory That Would Not Die; How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

• ISBN13: 9780300188226
• ISBN10: 0300188226
• Format: Trade Paper
• Copyright: 2012-09-25
• Publisher: Yale University Press

Summary

In this lively narrative history, noted science writer Sharon Bertsch McGrayne recounts the discovery of Bayes' rule and reveals how this seemingly simple mathematical theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time.

Author Biography

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne is the author of numerous books, including Nobel Prize Women in Science: Their Lives, Struggles, and Momentous Discoveries and Prometheans in the Lab: Chemistry and the Making of the Modern World. She lives in Seattle.

Table of Contents

Preface to the Paperback Edition	p. ix
Preface and Note to Readers	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xv
Enlightenment and the Anti-Bayesian Reaction	p. 1
Causes in the Air	p. 3
The Man Who Did Everything	p. 13
Many Doubts, Few Defenders	p. 34
Second World War Era	p. 59
Bayes Goes to War	p. 61
Dead and Buried Again	p. 87
The Glorious Revival	p. 89
Arthur Bailey	p. 91
From Tool to Theology	p. 97
Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks	p. 108
There's Always a First Time	p. 119
46,656 Varieties	p. 129
To Prove Its Worth	p. 137
Business Decisions	p. 139
Who Wrote The Federalist?	p. 154
The Cold Warrior	p. 163
Three Mile Island	p. 176
The Navy Searches	p. 182
Victory	p. 211
Eureka!	p. 213
Rosetta Stories	p. 233
Epilogue	p. 252
Appendixes	p. 257
Dr. Fisher's Casebook	p. 257
Applying Bayes' Rule	p. 259
Notes	p. 271
Glossary for Nonmathematical Readers	p. 283
Bibliography	p. 287
Reading List	p. 320
Index	p. 323
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