Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics

by James A. Stimson

• ISBN13: 9780521601177
• ISBN10: 0521601177
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-09-13
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Politics is a trial in which those in government - and those who aspire to be - make proposals, debate alternatives, and pass laws. Then the jury of public opinion decides. It likes the proposals or actions or it does not. It trusts the actors or it doesn't. It moves, always at the margin, and then those who benefit from the movement are declared winners. This book is about that public opinion response. Its most basic premise is that although pubic opinion rarely matters in a democracy, public opinion change is the exception. Public opinion rarely matters, because the public rarely cares enough to act on its concerns or preferences. Change happens only when the threshold of normal public inattention is crossed. When public opinion changes, governments rise or fall, elections are won or lost, old realities give way to new demands.

Author Biography

James A. Stimson is the Raymond Dawson Distinguished Bicentennial Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Table of Contents

List of Tables and Figures	ix
Preface: The Shutdown	xi
On Point of View	xvii
On How the Book Came to Be Written	xviii
On Truth, Objectivity, and Spin	xix
Acknowledgments	xxi
1 Opinion Flows	1	(22)
September 11	4	(2)
Policy Preferences	6	(3)
So, What's New?	9	(3)
A Theory of Public Opinion	12	(2)
Some Postulates about Opinion Movement	14	(7)
Design of the Book	21	(2)
2 What the Public Wants from Government	23	(35)
Thinking about Public Opinion	25	(5)
Absolute and Relative	30	(3)
Means and Ends	33	(4)
What Are the Considerations? Policy Domains	37	(14)
Some Newer Policy Conflicts	51	(7)
3 Left and Right Movements in Preference	58	(38)
The Issue Evolution Theory of Issue Alignment	60	(10)
Three Issue Evolutions	70	(6)
Preferences for Liberalism and Conservatism	76	(8)
Ideology: Operational and Symbolic	84	(12)
4 The Great Horse Race: Finding Meaning in Presidential Campaigns	96	(41)
The Lore of Presidential Campaigns: Three Stories	99	(9)
Do the Polls Predict Presidential Elections?	108	(6)
So, What Really Matters?	114	(7)
Party Nominating Conventions	121	(8)
Candidate Debates	129	(8)
5 Between the Campaigns: Public Approval and Disapproval of Government	137	(21)
The Presidency	140	(8)
U.S. Senators	148	(4)
Governors	152	(1)
Trust in Government	153	(1)
Is Approval Generic?	154	(4)
6 On Politics at the Margin	158	(15)
A Tale of Three Elections	159	(3)
Who Accounts for Change in American Politics?	162	(3)
The Rhythms of Opinion: A Reconsideration	165	(5)
On Marginal Democracy	170	(3)
Bibliography	173	(4)
Index	177