Understanding Iran

by Green, Jerrold D.; Wehrey, Frederic; Wolf, Charles

• ISBN13: 9780833045584
• ISBN10: 083304558X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2009-02-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Iran remains among the most poorly understood countries in the world and, for most Americans, terra incognita. A small community of American analysts in the government, academia, and the country's think tanks is, of course, working on Iran, but the overwhelming majority of them have never been to Iran or have visited only briefly. The consequences of this unfamiliarity have been distinctly negative for American policy, pushing most analyses toward a highly reductionist view. This monograph, the result of a workshop and the authors' own experience and analysis, is a concise, accessible handbook on the Islamic Republic for U.S. policymakers. As an aid to understanding current-day Iran, it synthesizes the existing analyses on the Islamic Republic and, most important, draws from non-American experts who can offer a different interpretive lens for viewing the seemingly opaque Iranian system. It offers a set of short analytic observations about the processes, institutions, networks, and actors that define Iran's politics, strategy, economic policy, and diplomacy. From these, it provides a guide for negotiating with Iran, about which the National Security Council's 2006 National Security Strategy warned, "We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran." Book jacket.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures and Tables	p. vii
Summary	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xvii
Abbreviations	p. xix
Introduction	p. 1
Birth of the Project	p. 1
Background	p. 2
Contents of This Document	p. 3
Features of the Iranian System	p. 5
Iran's Political Landscape: Individuals and Institutions	p. 6
The Supreme Leader: Influence and Worldview	p. 7
The National Security Establishment and the Rise of the Revolutionary Guards	p. 10
The Iranian Economy: Oil Dependency, Key Actors, and Policies	p. 15
Oil Export Dependency and Its Pathologies	p. 16
Economic Policies and Institutions: Complexity and Redundancy	p. 21
Disarray and Dysfunction in Economic Policy Execution	p. 23
The Elite's Political Culture: Factionalism and Informality	p. 25
Factional Dynamics at Work: The Nuclear Case Study	p. 28
Iran's Approach to Its Arab Neighbors: Implications for Iranian Behavior and U.S. Policy	p. 33
Iran's Outreach to Arab Publics	p. 34
Iran and Anti-Shiism	p. 36
Iran's Negotiating Style	p. 39
Conclusion: Iran Is Unlike Other Countries but Hardly Beyond Understanding	p. 47
Workshop Agenda	p. 49
Workshop Papers	p. 51
Decisionmaking for National Security: The Nuclear Case	p. 52
Negotiating with Iran: A Case Study	p. 66
Iran's Defense Establishment	p. 71
Negotiating with Iran	p. 79
Understanding Ayatollah Khamenei: The Leader's Thoughts on Israel, the U.S., and the Nuclear Program	p. 87
The Politics of Factionalism in Iran	p. 96
Economic Decisionmaking in Iran	p. 105
Iran in the Arab Sphere: Debating Legitimacy, Sovereignty, and Regional Order	p. 113
Iran's Oil Sector: Questions, Puzzles, Explanations	p. 123
Biographies of Workshop Participants	p. 129
References	p. 141
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.